Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position and looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden at Los Angeles Clippers – $11,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
We start this article off with the most expensive player on the slate in James Harden, who is in a phenomenal spot tonight. With so much value on this slate, Harden will be easy to pay-up for. Harden has the highest projected ceiling as he will be playing without Kevin Durant once again. This is a great spot to target Harden.
Without Durant, Harden really gets to display his upside. In three games without Durant this season, Harden is averaging 32.3 points per game, 10.3 rebounds per game, and 8.7 assists per game. He also has a 38.2% usage rate, which is just absurd. He only averages 20 points per game playing alongside Durant this season. This is an easy one. Lock in Harden and we’ll dive into some value plays.
Top Value: Coby White vs. Boston Celtics – $4,100 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Coby White was in the starting lineup last night for the second time this season and played a season-high 33 minutes. Despite playing that many minutes, he was very disappointing as he only finished with eight points and 13 DraftKings points. However, this price tag is far too juicy to let one bad game deter my interest. White has one of the biggest pricing differences on the slate. I prefer him on DraftKings where he has a 97% Bargain Rating.
Not only is his price better on DraftKings, but he is the highest projected value play at point guard in our model. White hasn’t had a good season, but he has shown some upside from time to time and I think this matchup against the Hawks presents another high upside spot. The Hawks rank 24th in Defensive Rating and have so many injuries it isn’t worth listing all of them.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball vs. Houston Rockets – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
The best game on the slate tonight is the Hornets hosting the Rockets. The Hornets have an implied total of 120.25 points with the game total set at 235.5 points. Both are the highest on the slate. LaMelo Ball is one of my favorite plays on DraftKings. He has legit triple-double upside in this fantastic matchup.
Ball leads the Hornets this season in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and usage rate. His minutes seem to be fluctuating more this season but Charlotte will be missing a few regulars due to COVID protocols. This matchup just suits Ball so well. The Rockets rank 28th in Defensive Rating and fourth in Pace. The Hornets rank second in Pace and Offensive Rating. The Hornets score 28.6 points per game in transition which is the second-highest. Ball should push the tempo in this spot.
Note: LaMelo Ball is only listed at PG on FanDuel.
Top Value: Skylar Mays vs. Chicago Bulls – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
The best value tonight on both sites is Atlanta Hawks guard Skylar Mays. Our model has Mays with a +15.3 projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings. The Hawks are without so many players, but for Mays the key players out are Trae Young, Delon Wright, Lou Williams, and even Kevin Huerter. Mays will likely move into the starting lineup and be one of the key pieces in the Hawks offense tonight. He is projected to play 34 minutes.
In the last two games where Mays has seen more playing time, he has averaged 12.5 points per game and 5.5 rebounds per game. He has 11 field goal attempts in both games and should see an increase in usage again tonight. Mays is the main Hawks player I want tonight, despite being home underdogs.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jaylen Brown at Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
One of the best plays on FanDuel tonight is Jaylen Brown, who will face the Timberwolves without Jayson Tatum in the lineup. Brown has had a positive Plus/Minus in every game since returning from the COVID protocols. During those six games, he has averaged 25.2 points per game and 40.1 FanDuel points per game. He has scored over 40 FanDuel points in each of his last three games with the highest being 48.70 points.
Using our On/Off tool, without Tatum on the floor this season, Brown has played 169 minutes and has a +10.0 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a +5.3% usage rate. Last season in seven games without Tatum, Brown averaged 30.4 points per game while having a 36.3% usage rate. Dennis Schroder and Marcus Smart are also questionable to play tonight. I like both Brown on both sites, but especially FanDuel where he has a 97% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: John Konchar at Phoenix Suns – $3,100 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Behind Mays who I mentioned above, John Konchar stands out as the second best value play on the slate tonight. He is coming off of a fantastic 11 points and 14 rebounds performance against the Kings where he finished with a career-high 43 DraftKings points. He has a projected +15.3 DraftKings Plus/Minus tonight.
Konchar was in the starting lineup last night and played 30 minutes. Our model has him projected for a similar outlook in minutes again tonight. The Suns are a brutal matchup and are a slate-high 8-point home favorites. They rank third in Defensive Rating this season and have allowed only 104.4 points per game. This is a tough spot for Konchar and the Grizzlies, but the value he provides is impossible to ignore.
Note: John Konchar is only SG eligible on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kristaps Porzingis at Portland Trail Blazers – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
The game with the closest spread tonight involves the Mavericks at the Trail Blazers. The Mavericks will rely on Kristaps Porzingis to carry the heavy lifting as Luka Doncic is still in the COVID protocols. In eight games without Doncic this season, Porzingis has averaged 21.1 points per game and nine rebounds per game. He also has a 31.5% usage rate. Tim Hardaway Jr. is another Maverick out due to the protocols.
This matchup against the Trail Blazers is also very enticing for Porzingis. They allow 111 points per game and rank 27th in Defensive Rating. Look for Porzingis to be very aggressive against this weak Trail Blazers frontcourt that is without Jusuf Nurkic and Robert Covington. The price tag is reasonable for his upside.
Top Value: Jalen McDaniels vs. Houston Rockets – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Another Hornets player that I want to get a piece of tonight is value option Jalen McDaniels. This game environment is fantastic and McDaniels is our highest projected Plus/Minus power forward on DraftKings tonight with +10.5. McDaniels has had a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 10 games.
The minutes for McDaniels are also ramping up due to the COVID situation with the Hornets. PJ Washington and Miles Bridges are both out tonight. McDaniels has played 26 minutes per game in his last five games while averaging 11 points per game and 5.8 rebounds per game. He had a season-high 20.1% usage rate last game. McDaniels stands out more on DraftKings where he has a 86% Bargain Rating.
Center
Top Ceiling: Rudy Gobert at San Antonio Spurs – $9,100 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Center is not all that enticing tonight at the high end. I am going to take the upside and safety that we get with Rudy Gobert. He has the highest ceiling at center in our model by a comfortable margin. He is basically a near lock to double-double every time he touches the floor. Gobert has a double-double in 26 of his 32 games this season.
Gobert is averaging a career-high and league-high 14.9 rebounds per game. His 15.4 points per game is also the second best of his career. Gobert has a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games. He likely won’t be that popular, but this is a great matchup for Gobert. The Spurs are tied for allowing the second most points in the paint this season with 48.6 per game. Lock in the double-double and get huge potential upside.
Top Value: Nathan Knight vs Boston Celtics – $3,300 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
The Timberwolves are a team who is very depleted right now. Their stars Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, and Anthony Edwards are all in the COVID protocols. They also have Naz Reid and Jarred Vanderbilt out as well. That will open the door for Nathan Knight to likely draw the start in this game.
Knight has yet to play more than 15 minutes in any game this season, but our model has him projected for 26 minutes. Knight is by far the best value center on DraftKings where he has a projected +12.9 Plus/Minus. The Celtics are a pretty solid interior defense, but this price tag is too low for Knight’s upside.
