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MLB Plays of the Day: 5/30/16 Main Slate

In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our FREE Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.  

Here are today’s plays of the day.

The Play of the Daigle

Who is John Daigle? He’s someone who can cut through a hot knife with butter.

John Daigle: Jeremy Hellickson, PHI, SP

There admittedly isn’t much to choose from with only five games tonight, but Hellickson is cream (albeit potentially curdled) that should rise to the top. Just look to his recent improvements for proof.

Hellickson has averaged only 16.7 DraftKings points this month, but his 59 percent Consistency this season trails only Justin Verlander and Ian Kennedy. He’s also allowed a batted-ball distance 38 feet shorter in that span. I can understand if you’re worried about his 1.38 home runs per nine innings allowed in the past year, but it’s all relative: He’s recently produced the lowest hard-hit percentage among the 10 pitchers available tonight.

If anything, note that this cream comes with a holiday discount (or, 89 percent Bargain Rating) at FanDuel.

Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown.

Also, for an unparalleled DFS edge, try our free Trends tool, where you can access our massive database of advanced data and leverage our premium exclusive metrics, such as Bargain Rating, Upside, Consistency, and Plus/Minus.

The Remaining Plays of the Day

Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”

Bryan Mears: Edwin Encarnacion, TOR, 1B

I think this might be an interesting test if you’re naturally a cash-game or tournament DFS player: Which player do you prefer — Justin Smoak (hitting fifth at $3,300) or Edwin Encarnacion (hitting third at $4,600)?

The “optimal” play here is Smoak: His .229 ISO is just below Encarnacion’s mark of .266, but you can get him at quite the discount at either site. It is very easy when creating lineups for the 7:05pm ET MLB slate to go with the combo of Smoak and Giancarlo Stanton (if he plays). Going with Encarnacion and an outfielder priced similarly to Smoak is likely leaving a lot of value on the table in terms of Upside and matchups.

However, that is exactly why Encarnacion is such an intriguing play in tournaments. When multiple players on the same team have the same position, as is the case here at 1B, I generally like to take the one later in the batting order in tournaments to get the ownership discount. However, because this is a small, five-game slate and Smoak has so much power at a cheap price, I think it will actually be the opposite tonight. Encarnacion is the contrarian play.

Be sure to check out the MLB Daily Fantasy Flex Podcast for tonight’s Main Slate.

Bill Monighetti: J.T. Realmuto, MIA, C

Catcher is generally a tough position to fill, so anytime we have one who is projected to bat cleanup, we have to at least take notice.  That’s where J.T. Realmuto – currently projected to bat fourth against lefty Jeff Locke on our Lineups page – comes into play.  His position in the batting order and cost – $3,400 on DK, $2,300 on FD – are enough for me to consider playing Realmuto today, but stopping there would be selling him short.

Though Marlins Park and its 14 Park Factor for right-handed bats won’t be doing Realmuto any favors, the matchup against a lefty pitcher more than makes up for it. Over his career, Realmuto has shown a split of nearly two fantasy points per game depending on the handedness of the opposing pitcher:

bill1

Further, while Realmuto’s advanced stats show he has been hitting the ball well over the past 15 days, it hasn’t yet translated into fantasy production.  To that point, while his Average Distance, Exit Velocity, and Hard-Hit Percentage have all increased over this time frame, his salary remains cheap.  If you’re playing both sites today, Realmuto is best deployed on FanDuel due to his 90 percent Bargain Rating.

For more Sheriff Bill, check out his MLB Recent Form Report.

Matthew Freedman: Steve Pearce, TB, 1B/2B

Last week, I published a Labyrinthian in which I noted the importance of not being right in tournaments when it comes to players with dual eligibility. For instance, Pearce is a great option as a second baseman on DraftKings. At the position, of the players with at least five Pro Trends, he by far provides the most value, with his 94 percent Bargain Rating.
 
The problem is that a lot of people could be using Pearce as a tournament play at second base, because it’s clear that he provides such a great value. Thus, from the perspective of ownership arbitrage, he should be faded at the position and instead used as a first baseman.
 
At this “suboptimal” position, Pearce still provides value, with the best available combination of Pro Trends, Bargain Rating, month-long Consistency and Upside, and (per our advanced stats) Distance, Exit Velocity, and Hard-Hit Differentials. With a +$700 Salary Change over the last month, Pearce isn’t quite the consummation devoutly to be wished, but he more than holds his own as a first baseman.
 
There are definitely a few items not in Pearce’s favor in general. It’s unfortunate that there’s a 20 percent chance of precipitation for his game, and you’d like to see the Rays with an implied Vegas total of greater than four runs. But at least those factors might diminish Pearce’s presence in lineups even more. And his 28 Park Factor isn’t great, but he should definitely benefit from winds blowing out to left field at nine to 11 miles per hour.
 
Every time I see his name in writing I think, “That guy spells his surname wrong” — but you should start him at first base anyway.
 

———

The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.

In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our FREE Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.  

Here are today’s plays of the day.

The Play of the Daigle

Who is John Daigle? He’s someone who can cut through a hot knife with butter.

John Daigle: Jeremy Hellickson, PHI, SP

There admittedly isn’t much to choose from with only five games tonight, but Hellickson is cream (albeit potentially curdled) that should rise to the top. Just look to his recent improvements for proof.

Hellickson has averaged only 16.7 DraftKings points this month, but his 59 percent Consistency this season trails only Justin Verlander and Ian Kennedy. He’s also allowed a batted-ball distance 38 feet shorter in that span. I can understand if you’re worried about his 1.38 home runs per nine innings allowed in the past year, but it’s all relative: He’s recently produced the lowest hard-hit percentage among the 10 pitchers available tonight.

If anything, note that this cream comes with a holiday discount (or, 89 percent Bargain Rating) at FanDuel.

Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown.

Also, for an unparalleled DFS edge, try our free Trends tool, where you can access our massive database of advanced data and leverage our premium exclusive metrics, such as Bargain Rating, Upside, Consistency, and Plus/Minus.

The Remaining Plays of the Day

Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”

Bryan Mears: Edwin Encarnacion, TOR, 1B

I think this might be an interesting test if you’re naturally a cash-game or tournament DFS player: Which player do you prefer — Justin Smoak (hitting fifth at $3,300) or Edwin Encarnacion (hitting third at $4,600)?

The “optimal” play here is Smoak: His .229 ISO is just below Encarnacion’s mark of .266, but you can get him at quite the discount at either site. It is very easy when creating lineups for the 7:05pm ET MLB slate to go with the combo of Smoak and Giancarlo Stanton (if he plays). Going with Encarnacion and an outfielder priced similarly to Smoak is likely leaving a lot of value on the table in terms of Upside and matchups.

However, that is exactly why Encarnacion is such an intriguing play in tournaments. When multiple players on the same team have the same position, as is the case here at 1B, I generally like to take the one later in the batting order in tournaments to get the ownership discount. However, because this is a small, five-game slate and Smoak has so much power at a cheap price, I think it will actually be the opposite tonight. Encarnacion is the contrarian play.

Be sure to check out the MLB Daily Fantasy Flex Podcast for tonight’s Main Slate.

Bill Monighetti: J.T. Realmuto, MIA, C

Catcher is generally a tough position to fill, so anytime we have one who is projected to bat cleanup, we have to at least take notice.  That’s where J.T. Realmuto – currently projected to bat fourth against lefty Jeff Locke on our Lineups page – comes into play.  His position in the batting order and cost – $3,400 on DK, $2,300 on FD – are enough for me to consider playing Realmuto today, but stopping there would be selling him short.

Though Marlins Park and its 14 Park Factor for right-handed bats won’t be doing Realmuto any favors, the matchup against a lefty pitcher more than makes up for it. Over his career, Realmuto has shown a split of nearly two fantasy points per game depending on the handedness of the opposing pitcher:

bill1

Further, while Realmuto’s advanced stats show he has been hitting the ball well over the past 15 days, it hasn’t yet translated into fantasy production.  To that point, while his Average Distance, Exit Velocity, and Hard-Hit Percentage have all increased over this time frame, his salary remains cheap.  If you’re playing both sites today, Realmuto is best deployed on FanDuel due to his 90 percent Bargain Rating.

For more Sheriff Bill, check out his MLB Recent Form Report.

Matthew Freedman: Steve Pearce, TB, 1B/2B

Last week, I published a Labyrinthian in which I noted the importance of not being right in tournaments when it comes to players with dual eligibility. For instance, Pearce is a great option as a second baseman on DraftKings. At the position, of the players with at least five Pro Trends, he by far provides the most value, with his 94 percent Bargain Rating.
 
The problem is that a lot of people could be using Pearce as a tournament play at second base, because it’s clear that he provides such a great value. Thus, from the perspective of ownership arbitrage, he should be faded at the position and instead used as a first baseman.
 
At this “suboptimal” position, Pearce still provides value, with the best available combination of Pro Trends, Bargain Rating, month-long Consistency and Upside, and (per our advanced stats) Distance, Exit Velocity, and Hard-Hit Differentials. With a +$700 Salary Change over the last month, Pearce isn’t quite the consummation devoutly to be wished, but he more than holds his own as a first baseman.
 
There are definitely a few items not in Pearce’s favor in general. It’s unfortunate that there’s a 20 percent chance of precipitation for his game, and you’d like to see the Rays with an implied Vegas total of greater than four runs. But at least those factors might diminish Pearce’s presence in lineups even more. And his 28 Park Factor isn’t great, but he should definitely benefit from winds blowing out to left field at nine to 11 miles per hour.
 
Every time I see his name in writing I think, “That guy spells his surname wrong” — but you should start him at first base anyway.
 

———

The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.