It’s been just 19 days since the 2017 baseball season began. Most teams haven’t finished even 10 percent of their season yet, but it’s never too early to take a look at ownership data to see which players enamor the public. Let’s take a look at some initial ownership patterns from the first three weeks of the season.
Highest-Owned Pitchers
Using our Trends tool, we see that six pitchers (minimum three starts) have posted an average DraftKings ownership of at least 40 percent this season:
Clayton Kershaw has been the chalk, but we’ve still seen very high ownership from an array of big names. Intriguingly, eight of this season’s top-10 highest-owned pitchers were in the playoffs last season. These pitchers were all relatively successful in 2016, but so far their production hasn’t matched their ownership. Overall, only Kershaw and James Paxton are currently ranked among the top-10 pitchers in DraftKings points per game, and only Paxton has a top-10 Plus/Minus this season.
The Cubs and the Dodgers are the only teams with multiple pitchers to have top-10 ownership rates. Jon Lester isn’t far behind with an average ownership of 26 percent — the 19th-highest mark among all pitchers with at least three starts this season. Rich Hill is on the disabled list with a blister, but he averaged 24.6 percent ownership in his first two starts of the season. The Cubs and Dodgers each have exceptional pitching staffs, but none of their three best pitchers has been available at an ownership discount this season.
Featured Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw is projected to start against the Giants on Tuesday, April 25th, and he could be rosterable without an ownership premium, as he averaged 45.2 percent ownership at home last season compared to 28 percent on the road. Kershaw averaged 30.9 percent ownership in five starts against the Giants last season.
Of course, we’re talking about Kershaw, who posted a slate-high ownership against the Rockies at Coors Field earlier this season (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
Kershaw’s 12.7 DraftKings points didn’t justify his slate-high ownership, but that’s the only start this season in which he hasn’t surpass his salary-implied total. Even if Kershaw on the road against the Giants falls short of his 46.7 percent seasonal average, he’ll probably still be one of the slate’s top-five highest-owned players.
Highest-Owned Hitters
Three hitters (minimum five games) have had an average ownership over 20 percent this season:
Once again, we see a plethora of players who were in the playoffs last season, with only Jose Altuve, Mike Trout and Gary Sanchez not playing last October. The Nationals lead all teams with three hitters to have top-10 ownership rates, while the Cubs have two.
Out of the cohort, only Bryce Harper and Francisco Lindor rank among the top-10 hitters in DraftKings points per game. Harper is the only hitter with a top-10 Plus/Minus. In total, just 33 qualified hitters have an average ownership higher than 10 percent. When you’re constructing rosters with our Lineup Builder, consider monitoring this list of highly-owned batters in an attempt to diversify your lineups and avoid too much chalk.
Featured Hitter: Bryce Harper
The Nationals are currently on a road trip that will extend until next Friday. Historically, Harper has had lower ownership on the road:
Of course, this ownership discount likely won’t apply when Harper and the Nationals play the Rockies, as he averaged 24.3 percent ownership in three games at Coors Field last season. Still, he’ll face the Mets on April 21-23.
Harper has averaged fewer DraftKings points per game and a lower Plus/Minus on the road. However, he’s posted a +5.0 percent Upside Rating differential on the road since the beginning of last season. Consider utilizing Harper on the road in tournaments, where he’ll potentially have increased upside without an ownership premium (when he’s not playing the Rockies).
