Here at FantasyLabs, we have a collection of advanced stats unlike anything you’re likely to find elsewhere. Whether it’s our velocity, batted-ball, or umpire data, our metrics are unrivaled both in themselves and in their ability to be backtested via our FREE Trends tool. Having access to this type of data gives our subscribers a huge edge on the competition.

For an unparalleled DFS edge, try our free Trends tool, where you can access our massive database of advanced data and leverage our premium exclusive metrics, such as Bargain Rating, Upside, Consistency, and Plus/Minus.

With the multitude of advanced stats available to us, which ones offer us the most value? In particular, which of the recent advanced stats are most powerful?

“There Can Be Only One”

I’m quoting Highlander, because there’s frankly no reason not to do so. If the logic works for the movie, who am I to argue with it? Let’s dig in and determine which metric really is ‘the one.’

Batters

Let’s start with the recent batting advanced stats.

I’ve delved into this topic a bit in the past as a part of my weekly State of the Stacks series. To flesh out the material further, let’s revisit it here.

First, we need a baseline player profile to test the metrics, and for that we’ll apply the following filters:

1. Lineup Order: Player Filters > Lineup Order > 1 to 5
2. Pitching Matchup: Stat Filters > Opp WHIP Percentile > 60 to 99
3. Positive Platoon Splits: Stat Split Filters > ISO Diff > .1 to 1
4. Park Factor: Trends > Park Factor (Beta) > 25 to 100

With the filters above, we’ve created the typical profile of a player who would in all likelihood be an attractive DFS target.

 

With our baseline set at +1.18 Plus/Minus, let’s proceed to review the following recent advanced stats: Distance Differential Score, Hard Hit Differential Score, and Exit Velocity Differential Score. For each filter, we’ll screen for players in at least the 80th percentile.

Distance Differential Score

Distance Differential: The difference between a batter’s average batted-ball distance the past 15 days versus past 12 months.

Result: Avg. Plus/Minus = +1.39. Value added: +0.21

Hard Hit Differential Score

Hard Hit Differential: The difference between a batter’s hard-hit percentage over the past 15 days and over the past 12 months.

Result: Avg Plus/Minus = +1.47. Value added: +0.29

Exit Velocity Differential Score

Exit Velocity Differential: The difference between a batter’s average batted-ball velocity over the past 15 days versus the past 12 months.

Result: Avg Plus/Minus = +.92. Value added: -0.26

Batter Results

Determining which recent advanced metric is “the one” from this group isn’t overly difficult, as the Hard Hit Differential Score trend returns an average Plus/Minus that is +0.29 DraftKings points higher than our baseline, the biggest impact among the advanced stats.

Pitchers

We have a comparable set of recent advanced stats at our disposal for the pitchers. Let’s proceed with establishing our base population.

There’s no need to get excessive with added filters for our pitching population, but I do want to add a very basic Starter WHIP filter (0 to 1.40) to weed out some of the pitchers who aren’t likely to be fantasy relevant.

With our baseline set at +0.16, let’s proceed to review the following recent advanced stats: Distance Differential Score, Hard Hit Differential Score, Exit Velocity Score, and Pitch Velocity Differential. Once again, for each filter we’ll screen for players in at least the 80th percentile.

Distance Differential Score

Distance Differential: The difference between a batter’s average batted-ball distance the past 15 days versus past 12 months.

Result: Avg Plus/Minus = -0.05. Value added: -0.21

Hard Hit Differential Score

Hard Hit Differential: The difference between a batter’s hard-hit percentage over the past 15 days and over the past 12 months.

Result: Avg Plus/Minus = +1.47. Value added: +1.31

Exit Velocity Differential Score

Exit Velocity Differential: The difference between a batter’s average batted-ball velocity over the past 15 days versus the past 12 months.

Result: Avg Plus/Minus = -0.14. Value added: -0.30

Pitch Speed Differential Score

Pitch Speed Differential: The difference between a pitcher’s average velocity over the past 15 days and over the past 12 months.

Result: Avg Plus/Minus = +0.37. Value added: +0.21

Pitcher Review

As was the case with the batters, we can see that Hard Hit Differential is the most impactful for our population of pitchers. Also, the additional Velocity Diff Score trend fared well, adding +0.21 Plus/Minus of value.

Incorporating the Data

We’ve established which recent advanced stats provide the most value for both hitters and pitchers. But what do we do with this information?

Personally, I try to incorporate a good amount of this data into our Trends tool. Whether working with a simple trend or a more complex one, I generally like to utilize these recent advanced stats when doing so makes sense within the constructs of the trend.

One final note: Much of this data isn’t being incorporated into pricing at the DFS sites or utilized in the research by non-FantasyLabs DFS players. Take advantage of this edge as often as possible. The value gained just might be enough to push your lineup over the top.