Baseball starts early and we’re going all day. Let’s dive right in. [Editor’s Note: Evidently Bryan ran out of Katie Ledecky material.]
Pitchers
Noah Syndergaard’s stats suggest that he’s an elite cash-game option today: He’s facing a Diamondbacks team currently implied for a slate-low 3.0 runs and Thor has the highest K Prediction of the day at 8.5. Those marks by themselves have led to a lot of value and consistency:
However, one of Thor’s advanced stats is troubling: He has allowed a 40 percent hard-hit rate in the last two games. That isn’t a disastrous number, but when you combine it with his mediocre recent results — 14.1 DK points at Detroit and 16.7 at home vs. Colorado — something seems a bit off. There are speculations that his problems may have to do with bone spurs, while others think that it’s an issue with his changeup. Either way, Thor hasn’t been quite as Thor-like in a while. Perhaps roll with him more in tournaments than cash today.
In tonight’s main slate, Corey Kluber is set to face an Angels squad currently implied for 3.3 runs — the second-lowest mark today. Unlike Thor, he does come into this game in great recent form: He has allowed a hard-hit rate of only 21 percent in his last two outings and has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven starts. He has a middling K Prediction of 6.1, but he is pitching at home, which gives him a solid 73 Park Factor.
$1,200 cheaper than Kluber on FanDuel and in ridiculous recent form is Royals lefty Danny Duffy.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FD by an average +13.06 points in his last 10 games, helped in large part by his 84-point, 16-strikeout game against the Rays 10 days ago. He followed that up with ‘only’ a 44-point game against the potent Blue Jays offense. Today he faces the White Sox, who are currently implied for 3.6 runs. What’s odd about Duffy is his advanced stats: Despite the strong production, he has actually allowed a hard-hit rate of 46 percent, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a 50 percent fly-ball rate. Those are terrible numbers and suggest that perhaps you should be a little careful with Duffy. There’s no denying his tournament upside, but perhaps stick with Kluber tonight in cash.
Jumping back to the early slate: Jameson Taillon faces a Padres team currently implied to score 3.6 runs. He has almost all positive indicators today: He’s in good recent form — he has allowed a batted-ball distance of 177 feet in his last two starts — he’s a big favorite (behind only Thor and Kluber today) at -190, and he’s pitching at home in the slate’s best pitcher’s park. His 6.3 K Prediction is middle of the road, but he’s only $7,400 on FanDuel. He might be the best pure value play today and is a great cash-game pivot from Thor if you’re worried about the issues mentioned above.
After struggling a bit, Cubs lefty Jon Lester bounced back nicely with two 51-point FD games in a row against the Mariners and A’s. Unfortunately, today brings a harder test in the Cardinals, whose projected lineup has the slate’s second-highest Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) at .327. Vegas often waits to release lines on the Cubs games due to wind, so if you’re playing in the all-day slate you may not have that information at your disposal by lineup lock at 12:10 PM ET. However, we do know that Lester has good advanced stats (a 28 percent hard-hit rate, for example) and the fourth-highest K Prediction at 7.1.
After the pitchers mentioned above, there’s a sizable drop-off to the next tier of pitchers. They’re all flawed in certain ways and you’ll have to decide what’s more important to you if you’re fading the pitchers above. If you prefer matchup, Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Tillman are facing Yankees and A’s squads whose projected lineups have the day’s lowest wOBAs at .272 and .273. Both of their opponents are currently implied for 3.9 runs — not great, but not bad overall.
If you’re looking more for upside, Michael Pineda and Jose Berrios both have top-five K Predictions today at 7.6 and 6.7. The bad news: They’re facing the Red Sox and the Astros, currently implied for 5.2 and 4.7 runs. Berrios in particular is quite cheap at $6,500 on FD, but both of these guys have extreme blow-up potential.
Stacks
I’ll give a stack for both the early and main slates. Here’s the top-rated early-slate five-man DK stack per the Bales Model:
The Rockies aren’t in Coors today, but they still haunt us.
For the main slate, here’s the top-rated four-man FD stack:
The Indians face Angels righty Jhoulys Chacin (not a Game of Thrones character) and his 1.461 WHIP. Cleveland should easily provide Kluber with enough run support today.
Batters
Ender Inciarte is projected to bat first for the Braves today, who are currently implied for 4.3 runs. His splits aren’t amazing — he boasts a .334 wOBA, .104 Isolated Power (ISO), and .399 slugging percentage — but he does have stolen-base upside (.160 SB/G) and, most importantly, he’s just too cheap at $2,900 on FanDuel.
Speaking of stolen-base upside: On the other side of this matchup is the Brewers’ Jonathan Villar, who is projected to bat leadoff as well and has a high .390 SB/G rate — easily the highest today. He has ‘negative’ splits, but that’s not really important as he’s essentially a no-splits hitter. He boasts a .356 wOBA, .139 ISO, and .432 slugging percentage versus righties. The Brewers are currently implied for 4.9 runs and face Roberto Hernandez, typically a relief pitcher for the Braves and a guy allowing 1.800 HR/9 over the last year — the third-worst mark in the slate.
Jay Bruce hasn’t really found his rhythm since getting traded to the Mets, but we can still look to his long-term stats to see his upside: He has a .343 wOBA, .275 ISO, and .516 slugging percentage against righties in the last 12 months. He’s projected to bat third for the Mets, who are currently implied for 4.7 runs and face Arizona’s Braden Shipley — a guy who has an even worse HR/9 (2.105) and WHIP (1.637) than Hernandez, mentioned above.
Adam Jones, come on down: It has been at least a day or two since I’ve mentioned you. Jones, as usual, is projected to bat leadoff for the Orioles, who are currently implied for 4.6 runs. He has a .364 wOBA, .224 ISO, and .515 slugging percentage against righties. They play on the road in Oakland today — a pitcher’s park — which means that Baltimore could be a sneaky contrarian stack in the early slate.
I need to single out Mitch Moreland, who is probably the most intriguing batter to me today for two reasons: His projected batting spot (seventh) and his recent advanced stats. The dude has been absolutely destroying the ball: He has a batted-ball distance of 247 feet and a hard-hit rate of 50 percent in his last 12 games. That’s just pure goodness. The Rangers will be a popular stack today. Please include Moreland. Who knows? That might make it more unique.
Good luck today!
