I’m not sure if I can find plays today as brilliant as Katie Ledecky, Michael Phelps, or the US women’s gymnastics team, but I’ll certainly try my best. There are three day games, the first starting at 12:10 PM ET, and then 12 main slate games at the usual 7:05 PM start time. We’ll talk about the games all together.
Pitchers
You know, maybe Justin Verlander is the Michael Phelps of today. I mean, he isn’t the most celebrated baseball player of all time, but he is a former MVP seeing some redemption lately — just as Phelps was redeemed last night, taking back the gold medal in the 200m butterfly from South African swimmer Chad le Clos.
Verlander is on the road facing the Mariners, who are currently implied to score 3.7 runs, the third-lowest mark on this particular day. His K Prediction of 6.6 isn’t great in general, but it’s the fourth-best mark on the slate. There is no ‘stud’ today, but Verlander’s recent play — highlighted by his recent hard-hit rate allowed of 28 percent — is a nice thing to target.
Toronto lefty J.A. Happ is set to face the Rays, who are currently implied to score 3.8 runs even though they put up nine runs last night in this batter’s park against Marco Estrada. Happ, like Verlander, has nice advanced stats: He has allowed a 28 percent hard-hit rate recently and also boasts a superior batted-ball distance of 201 feet in his last two starts. Given the Blue Jays’ implied Vegas total of 5.3 runs, Happ is the second-biggest favorite in the slate (-190 currently), and he also has the second-highest K Prediction at 7.1. At $9,200 on FanDuel, he’s a nice pivot from Verlander, who will likely have high ownership.
Moving on to another lefty: The Astros’ Dallas Keuchel is set to face a Twins team currently implied for 3.8 runs. Keuch is coming off a brilliant game in which he went the distance against the Rangers, striking out seven and allowing only three hits and no runs — a 60-point FD outing. His dominance shows up in his advanced metrics: He has allowed a hard-hit rate of 26 percent and a fly-ball rate of only 17 percent in his last two affairs. And how could I forget to mention the ground-ball rate of the ground-ball master? It’s 76 percent in those last two games — a purely ridiculous number.
(For what it’s worth, Ryan Vogelsong also fits the above trend with a recent ground-ball rate of 75 percent in his last two outings.)
Bartolo Colon is at home against the Diamondbacks, who are currently implied for a slate-low 3.5 runs. Colon is definitely not a strikeout pitcher — his K numbers are all over the place on a game-to-game basis and he has a 5.974 SO/9 average — but, because the Diamondbacks have a high SO/AB rate of .271 and because Colon is a fairly safe bet to pitch his usual number of innings, he has a respectable K Prediction of 5.4. His advanced stats aren’t amazing lately — he has allowed a hard-hit rate of 38 percent in his last two games — but I did stumble upon this sweatshirt. That has to mean something.
Ian Kennedy will go up against Jose Quintana and the Chicago White Sox tonight. Both teams are implied at exactly 4.0 runs right now. Kennedy gets the edge here because of 1) his higher K Prediction of 7.0 and 2) lower salary of $8,400 on FanDuel. Both pitchers have been in excellent recent form: They’ve both allowed an exit velocity of only 87 miles per hour in their last two starts and have allowed similar hard-hit rates (24 percent for Kennedy and 23 for Quintana). When in doubt, and as long as the Vegas data doesn’t drastically change, take the strikeout upside and lower salary in Kennedy.
Arizona lefty Robbie Ray is an underdog currently at +124, and he’s on the road against the Mets, who are currently implied to score 4.1 runs, but he actually has the best matchup today if we’re looking at the slate-low .272 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) of his opponent’s projected lineup. Ray also has the slate’s highest K Prediction of 7.4. He has been in good strikeout form, striking out nine-plus batters in each of his last three outings, even though his advanced stats have been rough: He has recently allowed a 40 percent hard-hit rate. In his last two starts, he has also allowed five earned runs, which I assume are factored into the Mets’ implied total of 4.1 runs. If you weren’t box-score hunting, though, you would think that he’s much too cheap at $7,800 on FanDuel.
Drew Pomeranz’s results have been a mixed bag since he was traded to the Boston Red Sox last month, and now he gets a taste of the storied rivalry with the Yankees. He does get the benefit of playing at home and with a high-powered offense: The Red Sox are currently implied for 5.5 runs, so even though the Yankees are at 4.1 runs Pomeranz is a sizable favorite at -169. He has pretty solid advanced stats, as highlighted by his 88 MPH exit velocity allowed in his last two games. He’s probably overpriced on both sites, but his 10.402 SO/9 rate over the last year shows the type of upside he has for guaranteed prize pools.
The last pitcher I’ll mention is Cardinals lefty Jaime Garcia, who is facing a Reds team currently implied to score 3.8 runs. Garcia isn’t a big strikeout guy (7.675 SO/9 rate), but the Reds definitely are a team that can strike out (.269 SO/AB). Thus, Garcia currently boasts a respectable 6.1 K Prediction. He’s in a pitcher’s park at home: With his 82 Park Factor, he trails only 1) the pitchers in San Diego and 2) Yovani Gallardo, the Baltimore righty pitching in Oakland.
Stacks
Let’s mix it up a little and do a five-man DraftKings stack based on Isolated Power (ISO).
Going against Keuchel, this jumbled Twins stack would certainly be unique.
The Rangers-Rockies aren’t playing in Coors tonight, but Texas still takes the top FD stack:
A straight 1-2-3-4 stack. Yawn.
If you have Rangers exhaustion because of the Coors series, the next highest-rated FD stack belongs to a projected 2-3-4-7 stack of the Blue Jays:
This stack is definitely expensive but has explosive upside. However, if you want the best of both worlds, you dip only a little in total rating yet gain an extra $2,700 in salary if you switch out Edwin Encarnacion-Michael Saunders for Russell Martin-Melvin Upton. That is almost the price of . . .
Batters
Christian Yelich, projected to bat third for the Marlins and who absolutely crushed last game, scoring 41.4 FD points on three hits, a home run, and an RBI. He faces San Francisco righty Jeff Samardzija, who has allowed two home runs in three of his last four (bad) starts. Yelich has great splits versus righties: He has a .412 wOBA, .204 ISO, and .545 slugging percentage in the last year.
Brandon Moss, on the other hand, has not been so hot lately:
However, he is projected to bat third for a Cardinals team currently implied to score 4.8 runs. He, like Yelich, also has excellent splits against righties: He boasts a .418 wOBA, .344 ISO, and .632 slugging percentage in the last year. He currently is tied with Yasmani Grandal for the most FD Pro Trends (nine) among projected starters.
Corey Seager is barely old enough to drink legally — he turned 22 in April — but he likely has an argument for NL MVP. He was hyped up and has delivered so far. Today (he’s in one of the three day games) he faces Jeremy Hellickson, who is a sizable +187 dog currently. Seager has positive splits against righties — a .413 wOBA, .252 ISO, and .580 slugging percentage — but he generally crushes everyone. He had a two-home run game just Monday.
This is probably shocking news, but David Ortiz is pretty good against right-handed pitchers. In the past year, he has a .450 wOBA, .367 ISO, and .693 slugging percentage against them. I respect his decision to retire on his own terms, but the dude could probably be a platoon hitter for the Red Sox for at least the next 25 years. As mentioned above, Boston is currently implied for 5.5 runs and Ortiz is projected to hit cleanup as usual. Ho hum, play Big Papi.
If you want to chase home runs, target Oakland lefty Ross Detwiler, who is facing the Orioles. His stats are most certainly a bit odd because he’s generally a reliever, but his 2.278 slate-high HR/9 rate shows that he definitely can give up the long ball. The Orioles batters don’t love lefties, which could make them an intriguing contrarian stack. Mark Trumbo, projected to bat fifth, is essentially a no-splits hitter: He has a .334 wOBA, .267 ISO, and .506 slugging percentage against LHP in the last year.
Good luck!
