Brewers, Nationals, and Sunrise
Brewers-Nationals begins two hours earlier than any other game today, and has thus been isolated solely to the All Day slate at FanDuel. Their players aren’t even eligible in the Early slate. Of course, taking Max Scherzer against the Brewers would exclusively be the reason for anyone that chooses to create a lineup that early. The question then becomes this: Is it worth playing and, in turn, fading Scherzer to gain an edge in that slate?
If you’re creating cash-game lineups for that slate, there’s decisively no better pitching option. The Brewers’ projected lineup is averaging .292 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB), bottom-three among offenses today, all the while being implied to score 0.7 fewer runs than any other team. Scherzer is also the only available pitcher that’s averaged over 50 FanDuel points in the past month. A true contrarian would play this slate with the intention of stacking against Scherzer, but the upside in that just doesn’t appear worth it. Either create head-to-head lineups over coffee or wait a couple of hours for the real magic to begin.
It’s All Relative
Danny Salazar is the only pitcher starting tonight that’s averaged over 20 DraftKings points in the last month. The problem is he’s not available in the 10-game slate that runs up until 7:07 p.m. ET. The Tigers’ lineup is averaging .257 SO/AB, making Salazar a fine cash-game play, although his 218-foot batted-ball distance allowed recently is fine to stack against in a smaller tournament slate. Earlier in the day, the top options are all relative to the makeup of the slate.
Carlos Martinez, STL
Even in failing to meet salary-based expectations at DraftKings in his last two starts, Martinez allowed an impressive 84-MPH exit velocity and 178-foot batted-ball distance over that time. He’s also allowed the fewest home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in the past year, keeping his floor as one of the highest today. Note that the Pirates’ projected lineup is also averaging .255 SO/AB.
Matt Harvey, NYM
Now that he has an 89 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings, Harvey is one of the cheaper options with a high ceiling this afternoon. His 223-foot batted-ball distance allowed over the last 15 days is worrisome for cash games, although at DraftKings, his aforementioned discount keeps his floor rather accessible. It also helps that the Marlins’ implied Vegas total is 0.2 runs fewer than the next team in this particular slate.
Lance McCullers, HOU
McCullers admittedly has a tough matchup against the Mariners this afternoon, whose .321 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is top-three among offenses. Note McCullers’ recent advanced stats, in which he limited the Angels to a 150-foot batted-ball distance and 10 percent hard-hit rate in his last start. His 9.79 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) rate ensures that his ceiling remains high no matter his opponent.
Kyle Hendricks, CHC
Unlike McCullers, Hendricks has one of the better matchups in this slate against the Reds, whose .285 SO/AB rate is bottom-two. Hendricks also has a moneyline of -263 today, far and away the highest among pitchers. Although the priciest outside of Salazar at his position, Hendricks can be rostered for much cheaper at FanDuel, where he has an 89 percent Bargain Rating.
Later Tonight
As mentioned earlier, Salazar has a terrific matchup in the four-game slate later this evening. However, it’s Aaron Sanchez who arguably remains the stronger option. You can obviously roster both at DraftKings, but Sanchez has an 80 percent Bargain Rating and costs $1,500 less than Salazar at FanDuel. Sanchez is also the only pitcher tonight that’s allowed a batted-ball distance under 200 feet in the past 15 days. Given his recent advanced stats and Salazar’s expected ownership in the shorter slate, that’s all the more reason to lean towards Sanchez, who’s averaged the second-most FanDuel points among available pitchers in the last month.
The Red Sox and Everyone Else
The Red Sox are implied to score 0.9 more runs than the next offense today. Oddly enough, it’s the Rangers, who Boston faces this afternoon, that’s received a majority of moneyline bets in this matchup. Still, the usual culprits of David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogaerts are fine for cash games, especially since Nick Martinez has allowed 1.84 HR/9 in the past year. In tournaments, it’s likely best to get away from their likely high ownership.
If choosing to go that route, note that the Cubs have a similarly-terrific matchup against Cody Reed, who’s allowed nine hits and at least five runs in each of his last two starts. Kris Bryant has negative differentials across the board against left-handed pitching, but Ben Zobrist is slugging .547 versus said handedness. Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez all have Isolated Power (ISO) marks in the top-10 at their respective positions, as well.
Dive a bit deeper and you’ll find that Joel De La Cruz has received the lowest percentage of moneyline bets against the Phillies. Their offense obviously isn’t as tantalizing as some of the heavier hitters just mentioned, but an implied 4.7 run total isn’t anything to scoff at, especially since even those with outstanding differentials in their lineup are sure to have very little ownership. That goes for Cody Asche, Odubel Herrera, and Maikel Franco, all who are slugging over .450 against right-handed pitching.
Other Hitters
Conor Gillaspie, SF
The Giants have numerous questionable players for tonight, which almost ensures that Gillaspie starts. And if that is the case, he is a steal at DraftKings, as shown by his 96 percent Bargain Rating there. His .083 wOBA Differential is also top-five among first and third basemen today, as he’s eligible to be rostered at both positions on DraftKings.
Victor Martinez, DET
Not only will Martinez likely have less ownership than Miguel Cabrera in tonight’s slate, the former has also recorded a batted-ball distance 15 feet farther and exit velocity one MPH higher than his teammate in the last 15 days. Martinez also has a 75 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings.
Devon Travis, TOR
Travis’ .130 wOBA Differential, .548 slugging percentage, and recent 93 MPH exit velocity are all the highest among second basemen tonight. Edinson Volquez, who has the task of pitching to the Blue Jays this evening, has notably allowed a bottom-two batted-ball distance among pitchers recently.
Jose Altuve, HOU
Altuve’s value is strictly located at FanDuel where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating, but that doesn’t mean he should be forgotten at DraftKings. After all, his .617 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching is still top-two among second basemen. What’s more is that his 95-MPH exit velocity accrued in the last 15 days is tied with Matt Carpenter’s for the second-highest at their position.
Francisco Lindor, CLE
Daniel Norris has recently allowed the farthest batted-ball distance among pitchers in tonight’s slate, which bodes well for all Indians hitters with positive differentials against left-handed pitching. One notable hitter is Lindor, who’s slugging .531 against said handedness.
Stephen Piscotty, STL
Just note Piscotty’s .583 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching. His .438 wOBA is additionally ranked second among outfielders today, behind only Carlos Gonzalez’s .446 average.
Steven Moya, DET
Despite his three-strikeout performance just yesterday, Moya still has a .116 ISO Differential, and all for the low cost of $2,400 at DraftKings. Given his 270-foot batted-ball distance over his last seven starts, forget about his most recent results and take advantage of the value while you still can.
Good luck!
