Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Nate Karns, SEA
We’ll still discuss Gio Gonzalez, but inclement weather could ruin both his and Ervin Santana’s starts this evening. It’s a shame, given that both are in good spots, but that’s where Karns, who’s averaging 9.43 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9), comes in handy. Despite receiving a majority of moneyline bets, the Indians have an implied total that has also already sunk by 0.4 runs. Their projected .359 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is concerning, but (per our advanced stats) Karns in his last two starts has limited opponents to a hard-hit rate 12 percentage points below their yearly average. His exit velocity allowed of 86 miles per hour in that span is also top-two in this slate.
Gio Gonzalez, WSH
Gonzalez comes with the risk that Chicago might not stay dry. Right now, the weather shows potential storms interfering only at first pitch, so Gonzalez, with his 8.85 SO/9, could be a viable option. But if anything were to change prior to lineup lock, he would be a tough sell, no matter how tantalizing his opponent’s projected .308 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB) may be. Gonzalez also leads the slate with six Pro Trends.
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Ivan Nova, NYY
Nova doesn’t offer much Upside, given his 6.25 SO/9, but it’s all relative to this slate. After all, no pitcher has a Rating higher than 62 in our Bales Model tonight. At least he has a 93-percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings despite averaging only 14.8 points in the last month. In Nova’s favor is the Angels’ bottom-two Team Value Rating of 53.
Pitchers to Exploit
Josh Tomlin, CLE
Tomlin has a +2.81 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last four games, but most of that is because of easier matchups earlier in the month. As it pertains to tonight, the Mariners’ projected .369 wOBA is the highest among offenses. Tomlin has also allowed 1.68 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in the past year, 0.19 more than the next pitcher in this slate. There are only slight winds blowing out to centerfield in Seattle at the moment, but they are strong enough to make Tomlin’s 40-percent recent fly-ball rate very exploitable.
Brandon Finnegan, CIN
The Cardinals were initially implied to score 5.1 runs, but that clearly wasn’t good enough for Vegas. Their total has since risen 0.2 runs, as they’re now implied to score the most this evening. Furthermore, Finnegan has received a slate-low 17 percent of moneyline bets tonight. At DraftKings, he actually has a 50-percent Consistency on the year, but in his most recent nine performances he also has a -2.89 Plus/Minus. St. Louis’ projected .207 SO/AB only emphasizes the uphill battle Finnegan’s sure to endure.
C
Jonathan Lucroy, MIL
No starter behind the plate has averaged a batted-ball distance comparable to Lucroy’s, who in the past 15 days has hit the ball 19 feet farther than his yearly average. Additionally, in that span he has averaged a 93-MPH exit velocity, also the highest among catchers tonight. He’s most accessible at FanDuel where he has a 97-percent Bargain Rating, but don’t let that deter you from rostering him at DraftKings. He’s in a tremendous spot, as Bartolo Colon has averaged only nine DraftKings points in the past month.
1B
Chris Carter, MIL
Others at his position can only dream of producing similar peripherals, as Carter has averaged a 258-foot batted-ball distance and 95-MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Carter’s volatility is worrisome, but at least Colon is averaging only 6.02 SO/9. And it helps that Carter’s average of .074 home runs per at-bat (HR/AB) is top-three in this smaller slate, trailing only Dae-Ho Lee’s (.082) and Chris Davis’ (.081).
Rob Refsnyder, NYY
Assuming that he starts over Chris Parmelee tonight, you shouldn’t worry about Refsnyder’s 197-foot batted-ball distance since taking over for Mark Teixeira. After all, his .232 ISO Differential is still .031 greater than that of Chris Davis. Also, Refsnyder is slugging .609 against right-handed pitching.
2B
Daniel Murphy, WSH
Murphy’s salary at DraftKings is $900 more than anyone else’s at second base, but his .107 ISO Differential is top-three tonight. He has also recorded double-digit DraftKings points in five of his last seven outings. Despite the Salary Change, Murphy trails only Miguel Rojas and Greg Garcia in Consistency.
3B
Matt Carpenter, STL
Even with a -0.068 ISO Differential, Carpenter is rosterable because of his position-best 95-MPH exit velocity and recent peripherals. His 15-day 44-percent hard-hit rate trails only Manny Machado’s (52 percent) among starters this evening. Carpenter, however, has surpassed Machado in that he has averaged 2.3 more DraftKings points in the past month and recorded a lower Dud percentage.
Todd Frazier, CWS
Not only does Frazier’s .140 ISO Differential lead his position, but his raw .354 ISO against left-handed pitching is .080 higher than Machado’s (.274). Frazier’s also slugging .594 versus said handedness. His 216-foot batted-ball distance of late just barely puts him in the top 10 at third base, but Frazier’s 52-percent Consistency in the past month is second only to Eduardo Nunez’s (60 percent).
SS
Jhonny Peralta, STL
Before rostering Almedys Diaz simply because he’s hitting second, you should note his -0.094 and -0.100 wOBA and ISO Differentials. Peralta, however, has a .109 ISO Differential, the highest among shortstops this evening. His nine Pro Trends are also tied with Eduardo Nunez’s for the most at the position. Assuming that he has lower ownership than Diaz (and continues hitting fifth), I expect Peralta to be the stronger tournament option of the two.
OF
Robbie Grossman, MIN
Grossman’s salary went from $3,100 to $2,000 overnight, all because he’s facing a righty. He now has a 99-percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. Despite having a -0.046 ISO Differential, Grossman could be productive tonight, given that his overall slugging percentage is still top-seven among outfielders. He’s also one of only three at his position with double-digit Pro Trends.
Jay Bruce, CIN
Only Giancarlo Stanton has produced a higher exit velocity than Bruce’s in the past 15 days. Bruce, however, has averaged a batted-ball distance 79 feet farther in that span. His 11.4 DraftKings points in the last month are second only to Adam Duvall’s (11.7) among outfielders tonight.
Curtis Granderson, NYM
Granderson’s +0.50 Plus/Minus in his last 10 games is nothing special, but his recent advanced stats suggest that better results are coming. For instance, over the last 15 days he has averaged a 94-MPH exit velocity and batted the ball 20 feet farther than he has over the past year. It also bodes well that over that same span opposing pitcher Jimmy Nelson has allowed batters to surpass their yearly hard-hit rate by 10 percentage points.
Weather Watch
As noted earlier, Nationals-White Sox might experience thunderstorms following the first hour of play. All hitters for both teams should be safe, but it’s certainly worth monitoring. Unlike that matchup, however, there’s a chance Marlins-Twins is postponed altogether. It’s a shame, since Minnesota is already showing reverse line movement (essentially making Ervin Santana a tremendous option), but inclement weather will likely begin prior to first pitch and won’t cease until midnight or so. Prepare accordingly.
Good luck!
