The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s main slate features nine games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Shane McClanahan ($10,400 DraftKings; $11,400 FanDuel), Tampa Bay Rays (+118) at New York Yankees
McClanahan is not the highest-projected pitcher on the slate. He is not even the fourth-highest but I like him the most. Sure, the Yankees are a potent offense (2nd in ISO against left-handed pitching) and are playing in Yankees Stadium. That said, McClanahan has a 1.47 ERA while allowing a .159/.197/.254 slash in 18 1/3 road innings.
On the season, the K/9 is 12.19, while the FIP is 2.45. The swinging strike rate is a whopping 16.9%, and the Yankees are ninth in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. McClanahan has exceeded points expectations 90% of the time this season.
He’s scored at least 20 DraftKings points in all but one start with three over 30.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Spencer Strider ($7,700 DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel), Atlanta Braves (+159) at Washington Nationals
Spencer is going to be popular, so decisions will have to be made.
There are plenty of good reasons why. The K/9 is 13.38, the HR/9 is 0.23, and the FIP is 1.99. The swinging-strike rate is 15.7%. Keep in mind that much of that production came as a reliever. In his three starts, he’s gone five innings only once and put up 10.14, 12.8, and 29.76 Draftkings points.
Washington is 26th in strikeouts and 23rd in ISO against right-handed pitching.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Nestor Cortes ($9,900 DraftKings; $10,500 on Fanduel) – New York Yankees (-137) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Cortes is coming off a 3.54-DraftKings points game in which he allowed two home runs, four earned runs and didn’t make it through four innings. The Rays are 28th in strikeouts against left-handed pitching, so that matchup isn’t great.
That said, Tampa Bay is 26th in ISO against left-handed pitching, and the last time Cortes put up a single-digit stinker, he went for 35.49 DraftKings points in the next start. Cortes is the highest-projected pitching in THE BAT X projections but only has the fourth-highest projected ownership.
He also has six Pro Trends backing him.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model, when generated by median projections belongs to the Cleveland Guardians:
- Myles Straw (1) ($4,100)
- Amed Rosario (2) ($4,000)
- Jose Ramirez (3) ($6,000)
- Oscar Gonzalez (4) ($2,800)
- Josh Naylor (6) ($4,300)
The Guardians are in Colorado. End of analysis.
Austin Gomber is a lefty who has a 6.94 K/9 and 9% swinging-strike rate. At home, the ERA is 6.21 with a .321/.377/.554 slash. Dating back to last season, he’s allowed a .202 ISO to righties. The Rockies bullpen is 13th in FIP this season.
Also, Jose Ramirez has a .230 ISO against lefties, and the Guardians are projected for 6 runs.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections, belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
The winds are blowing out to left field at 19 mph, and the Cubs are projected for 6.11 runs, the second-most on the slate. Easy game (I think).
Ryan Weathers will be making his season debut today. Last season, in 94 2/3 MLB innings, he had a 6.85 K/9 and 1.9 HR/9. The FIP was 5.44, and the swinging strike rate was 7.3%. He allowed a .249 ISO to righties.
Morel has a .208 ISO against lefties, Contreras is at .337, Wisdom is at .284, Schwindel is at .277, and Happ is the black sheep with a .157 ISO.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
George Springer OF ($5,700 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel), Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles (Bruce Zimmermann)
The Blue Jays are implied for a slate-high 6.21 runs, and that is with Coors Field and a windy Wrigley in play. Springer bats leadoff and has a .270 ISO against left-handed pitching. Zimmermann has allowed a .221 ISO to righties dating back to last season with a 44.6% hard-hit rate.
Mookie Betts OF ($6,000 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel), Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
Detmer has a 5.84 K/9 and 4.84 FIP on the season. He’s pitched at least five innings in only four of 10 starts. The Angels bullpen has the second-highest FIP. Dating back to last season, Detmers has allowed a .178 ISO and 43.9% fly-ball rate to righties. Betts has a .224 ISO against lefties. He has 17 home runs and six stolen bases on the season. The slash and ISO have been better against lefties than righties.
Luke Voit 1B ($3,500 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel), San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs (Caleb Kilian)
Caleb Kilian struck out six over five innings in his MLB debut on June 4th. Voit has plenty of swing-and-miss to his game, as the strikeout rate is over 30% against right-handed pitching. That said, all seven of his homers have come against righties, and the wind is blowing out to left at 19 mph today in Chicago. The Cubs bullpen has allowed the second-most HR/9 this season as well.
