The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Gerrit Cole ($10,800 DraftKings; $11,100 FanDuel), New York Yankees (-152) at Los Angeles Angels
Jacob deGrom is the top pitcher on the slate with the highest projection and most projected ownership. It’s tough not to go with him since he’s exceeded points expectations 100% of the time in his last five starts and, in his career, has allowed one or fewer earned runs in 108 of 203 starts. I’m going with Cole, though.
deGrom will likely do well, but he faces a Dodgers team that is 23rd in strikeouts and 1st in ISO. Cole faces an Angels team that is 1st in strikeouts and 9th in ISO. The path of least resistance lies with Cole, and his K Prediction is 9.12, compared to 7.97 for deGrom.
Cole provides a $700 discount from deGrom, and the projected ownership discount could be around 10%.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Anibal Sanchez ($5,500 DraftKings; $6,200 on FanDuel), Washington Nationals (-103) vs. Oakland Athletics
I know, I know. It’s gross, but he’s cheap. Sanchez has a swinging strike rate of only 7.4% this season and has not pitched over five innings in any of his eight starts this season. He’s produced single-digit DKFP in six of them. That said, he’s gone five innings in six of those starts, and in the other two games, he pitched four innings. In his two most recent starts, Sanchez has gone for 15.45 and 10.74 DKFP.
The matchup is a good one, as the Athletics are 8th in strikeouts and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Sanchez has had pitch counts over 90 in six of eight starts, although in his two most recent starts, he was limited to 79 and 81 pitches. The ceiling is likely limited, but he may allow you to fit in some more expensive bats while going 3x on his salary.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Marco Gonzales ($7,300 DraftKings; $7,800 on FanDuel), Seattle Mariners (-158) at Detroit Tigers
Gonzales is not Anibal Sanchez gross, but he’s close. The K/9 is only 5.05, while the swinging strike rate is 7.9%. That said, the model has his K Prediction at 5.69, which is the sixth-highest on the slate! The Tigers are middle-of-the-pack in strikeouts against left-handed pitching, but they are 28th in ISO. Lefty Patrick Sandoval carved them up a few weeks ago for nine strikeouts in a complete-game shutout. That outcome is not likely for Gonzales, but he could get into the 20-DFKP range, something he’s done four times this season.
He is projected to be rostered on fewer than three percent of teams.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by median projections belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
- Kyle Schwarber (1) ($5,600)
- Rhys Hoskins (2) ($5,300)
- Alec Bohm (3) ($4,700)
- Bryce Harper (4) ($5,700)
- J.T. Realmuto (5) ($5,600)
The Phillies travel to Arizona and are projected for the third-highest run total on the slate. They get to face lefty Tommy Henry and the Diamondbacks bullpen. Henry has 27.2 innings of MLB experience and has posted a 6.18 K/9 and 4.68 FIP. He has done a good job of keeping the ball in the yard, though, with a HR/9 of 0.98. The swinging strike rate is 10.8%. The arsenal consists of a 91.6 mph fastball with a slider, curveball, and changeup. The Arizona bullpen has the ninth-highest FIP and 13th-highest HR/9.
Against left-handed pitching dating back to last season, Schwarber has a .212 ISO, Hoskins is at .295, Bohm is at .216, Harper is at .215, and Realmuto is at .216. That’s a lot of power, so it will be interesting to see if Henry can maintain his early effectiveness in limiting the long ball.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections, belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays have the highest run total on the slate at 5.9. They get to face righty Luke Farrell, who likely won’t be in the game long. He had a start last week and went 4.1 innings. In his next outing, he pitched 2.2 innings in relief. Farrell is 31 years old and has bounced around. In his six-year MLB career, he’s pitched 94.2 innings and posted a 9.32 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, 1.71 HR/9, and 5.16 FIP. Since he likely won’t pitch deep into the game, it will be insightful to see what the Cubs bullpen looks like. They have the third-highest FIP and have allowed the most home runs per nine innings.
Against right-handed pitching, Springer has a .222 ISO, Guerrero is at .225, Bichette is at .167, Chapman is at .224, and Hernandez is at .190.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Aaron Judge OF ($6,500 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel), New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (Patrick Sandoval)
Judge has the highest projection on the slate. Duh. He’s good, like really good. In 556 plate appearances this season, Judge has 51 home runs, 104 runs scored, 113 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases. The slash is .297/.398/.667 with a .370 ISO! Those are stupid numbers.
He will face Patrick Sandoval, who has done an excellent job of limiting home runs this season. The HR/9 is only 0.47, but the career rate is 1.07. All six home runs have been served up to righties. Judge has a .383 ISO against left-handed pitching.
AJ Pollock OF ($3,300 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel), Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Kris Bubic)
Pollock is going to be popular. He’s cheap, will likely bat leadoff, and he has excellent numbers against left-handed pitching. The ISO is .315 against them, dating back to last season.
There may be some merit to fading him, though. Bubic has historically been better against righties than lefties. The HR/9 is 1.28 with a 8.17 K/9, compared to 2.11 HR/9 and 6.7 K/9 to lefties. This season, the HR/9 is 0.9 to righties compared to 2.84 against lefties.
Stone Garrett OF ($2,100 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel), Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Brady Falter)
Since being called up from Triple-A earlier this month, Garret is slashing .391/.391/.783 with a .391 ISO! It’s only been 25 plate appearances, though, and the BABIP is .467. That said, he has two home runs and one stolen base. In Triple-A this season, he produced 28 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 440 plate appearances with a .293 ISO and .275/.332/.568 slash. The starter for the Phillies is lefty Brady Falter, who has allowed a .315 ISO and 48.2% flyball rate to righties. He’s not guaranteed to start, but if he does, Garrett would be a solid option due to the price, matchup, and the power/speed equity.
