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MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays & Top Stack for July 7

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.

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Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Value Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Buddy Kennedy ($2,000): Second Baseman, Arizona Diamondbacks

You’d be forgiven for not knowing Diamondbacks rookie Buddy Kennedy. The D-Backs are languishing in one of baseball’s toughest divisions, and Kennedy is scraping by below the Mendoza line. However, Kennedy has turned a corner over his recent sample and could flourish against the Rockies Thursday night.

Arizona’s second baseman has recorded hits in three of his past four outings, totaling five hits, three RBIs and one run scored. In doing so, he’s elevated his slugging percentage to .314, yet Kennedy remains below his expected rating of .333.

Rockies’ probable starter Austin Gomber is doing his part to send fans home with souvenirs, serving up a .521 expected slugging percentage and 8.9% barrel rate. Moreover, the right-handed batting Kennedy will be on the positive side of his splits against Colorado’s southpaw.

According to THE BAT X projections, Kennedy is the top bargain option. The D-Backs rookie leads our Points/Salary rankings while also featuring prominently in Projected Plus/Minus. Don’t pass up Kennedy’s value on Thursday’s main slate.

MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Cal Raleigh ($2,300): Catcher, Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are running hot these days, closing the gap on their AL counterparts in the wild card race. M’s catcher Cal Raleigh has factored into the scoring and is an undervalued fantasy asset tonight at FanDuel.

Raleigh has improved his slugging percentage over the past couple of weeks, with seven of his nine hits going for extra bases, including five doubles and a home run. That upward trend is expected to continue as Raleigh remains short of his expected metrics.

Additionally, the Florida State University product has put up some eye-popping advanced stats, ranking in the 85th percentile with a 47.7% hard-hit rate and 93rd percentile with his 15.3% barrel rate.

Raleigh is on the precipice of breaking out and becoming a household name. Keep your eyes on him tonight and through the second half of the season as he continues to flash his elite hitting ceiling.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Dylan Cease ($9,800 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers

White Sox ace Dylan Cease never ceases to amaze. The former sixth-round pick has led the league in K/9 over the past two seasons but has been rostered in just 13.3% of lineups in two of his past four starts. Take notice of what Cease brings to the table on Thursday’s docket.

The 26-year-old has elite strikeout metrics, elevating his fantasy appeal against the Tigers. Cease throws smoke on the mound, inducing a whiff percentage that puts him in the top 5% of pitchers. The Sox ace has a five-pitch arsenal and has a whiff rate of 32.5% or better on three of his five pitches. Consequently, Cease has a 34.3% strikeout rate, putting him in the 95th percentile among major league pitchers.

The Tigers are expanding the zone over their recent outings, compiling the sixth-most strikeouts over the past seven days. They’ve also been one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors on the road, scoring the fewest runs and putting together a laughable .581 on-base plus slugging percentage.

Our ceiling projections might not even do Cease justice on tonight’s slate. Still, he leads THE BAT X and FantasyLabs median and ceiling projections on both platforms.


Hitter

Shohei Ohtani ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles

The Angels are on the verge of missing the postseason for the eighth-straight season, but it isn’t a result of the lack of effort from Shohei Ohtani, who remains one of the game’s preeminent hitters. The reigning AL MVP is coming off an above-average fantasy performance and is yet again a top option.

Ohtani’s batter profile puts him above nearly every hitter in the MLB. The Silver Slugger rates in the 98th percentile in barrel rate and expected slugging percentages while sitting in the 95th percentile in expected weighted on-base average and average exit velocity.

The Angels’ designated hitter has been productive over the past month, elevating his on-base plus slugging percentage from .767 on June 6 to its current mark of .839. Ohtani has found his power swing, delivering five home runs and 16 runs batted in since June 21.

Camden Yards adjusted its left-field dimensions but remains a manageable 318 feet down the right field line. That means it’s open season for Ohtani as he looks to maintain his MVP-caliber production.

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Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Atlanta Braves. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

Matthew Liberatore‘s career isn’t off to an ideal start, and the Braves should add to his misery on Thursday night. The World Series champs have tormented the Cardinals, taking the first three decisions of the four-game series by scoring 16 runs.

Ronald Acuna Jr. is the model batter at the top of the Braves’ order, leading the team with a .375 on-base percentage. He’s also added a .437 slugging percentage and 17 stolen bags in just 49 games. Acuna Jr. is manufacturing runs, and his 33 runs rank seventh on the team, despite playing in 34 games fewer than the team leader.

Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley have been exposing pitchers on the mound this week, combining for 21 hits in six games, with 14 runs batted in and 10 scored. Riley is on a power trip over that stretch, swatting three long balls and four doubles for an asinine 1.563 on-base plus slugging percentage.

The top half of the Braves lineup is rounded out with Matt Olson and Travis d’Arnaud. Olson has been one of their top run producers, ranking third on the team in RBIs and fourth in home runs. d’Arnaud is a close fifth in the dinger category, leading to the third-best slugging percentage among hitters with more than 40 games played.

The Braves rate as the top stacking option on tonight’s slate, and combining the top five hitters in their lineup results in the highest projected fantasy point total.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Value Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Buddy Kennedy ($2,000): Second Baseman, Arizona Diamondbacks

You’d be forgiven for not knowing Diamondbacks rookie Buddy Kennedy. The D-Backs are languishing in one of baseball’s toughest divisions, and Kennedy is scraping by below the Mendoza line. However, Kennedy has turned a corner over his recent sample and could flourish against the Rockies Thursday night.

Arizona’s second baseman has recorded hits in three of his past four outings, totaling five hits, three RBIs and one run scored. In doing so, he’s elevated his slugging percentage to .314, yet Kennedy remains below his expected rating of .333.

Rockies’ probable starter Austin Gomber is doing his part to send fans home with souvenirs, serving up a .521 expected slugging percentage and 8.9% barrel rate. Moreover, the right-handed batting Kennedy will be on the positive side of his splits against Colorado’s southpaw.

According to THE BAT X projections, Kennedy is the top bargain option. The D-Backs rookie leads our Points/Salary rankings while also featuring prominently in Projected Plus/Minus. Don’t pass up Kennedy’s value on Thursday’s main slate.

MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Cal Raleigh ($2,300): Catcher, Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are running hot these days, closing the gap on their AL counterparts in the wild card race. M’s catcher Cal Raleigh has factored into the scoring and is an undervalued fantasy asset tonight at FanDuel.

Raleigh has improved his slugging percentage over the past couple of weeks, with seven of his nine hits going for extra bases, including five doubles and a home run. That upward trend is expected to continue as Raleigh remains short of his expected metrics.

Additionally, the Florida State University product has put up some eye-popping advanced stats, ranking in the 85th percentile with a 47.7% hard-hit rate and 93rd percentile with his 15.3% barrel rate.

Raleigh is on the precipice of breaking out and becoming a household name. Keep your eyes on him tonight and through the second half of the season as he continues to flash his elite hitting ceiling.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Dylan Cease ($9,800 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers

White Sox ace Dylan Cease never ceases to amaze. The former sixth-round pick has led the league in K/9 over the past two seasons but has been rostered in just 13.3% of lineups in two of his past four starts. Take notice of what Cease brings to the table on Thursday’s docket.

The 26-year-old has elite strikeout metrics, elevating his fantasy appeal against the Tigers. Cease throws smoke on the mound, inducing a whiff percentage that puts him in the top 5% of pitchers. The Sox ace has a five-pitch arsenal and has a whiff rate of 32.5% or better on three of his five pitches. Consequently, Cease has a 34.3% strikeout rate, putting him in the 95th percentile among major league pitchers.

The Tigers are expanding the zone over their recent outings, compiling the sixth-most strikeouts over the past seven days. They’ve also been one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors on the road, scoring the fewest runs and putting together a laughable .581 on-base plus slugging percentage.

Our ceiling projections might not even do Cease justice on tonight’s slate. Still, he leads THE BAT X and FantasyLabs median and ceiling projections on both platforms.


Hitter

Shohei Ohtani ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles

The Angels are on the verge of missing the postseason for the eighth-straight season, but it isn’t a result of the lack of effort from Shohei Ohtani, who remains one of the game’s preeminent hitters. The reigning AL MVP is coming off an above-average fantasy performance and is yet again a top option.

Ohtani’s batter profile puts him above nearly every hitter in the MLB. The Silver Slugger rates in the 98th percentile in barrel rate and expected slugging percentages while sitting in the 95th percentile in expected weighted on-base average and average exit velocity.

The Angels’ designated hitter has been productive over the past month, elevating his on-base plus slugging percentage from .767 on June 6 to its current mark of .839. Ohtani has found his power swing, delivering five home runs and 16 runs batted in since June 21.

Camden Yards adjusted its left-field dimensions but remains a manageable 318 feet down the right field line. That means it’s open season for Ohtani as he looks to maintain his MVP-caliber production.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Atlanta Braves. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

Matthew Liberatore‘s career isn’t off to an ideal start, and the Braves should add to his misery on Thursday night. The World Series champs have tormented the Cardinals, taking the first three decisions of the four-game series by scoring 16 runs.

Ronald Acuna Jr. is the model batter at the top of the Braves’ order, leading the team with a .375 on-base percentage. He’s also added a .437 slugging percentage and 17 stolen bags in just 49 games. Acuna Jr. is manufacturing runs, and his 33 runs rank seventh on the team, despite playing in 34 games fewer than the team leader.

Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley have been exposing pitchers on the mound this week, combining for 21 hits in six games, with 14 runs batted in and 10 scored. Riley is on a power trip over that stretch, swatting three long balls and four doubles for an asinine 1.563 on-base plus slugging percentage.

The top half of the Braves lineup is rounded out with Matt Olson and Travis d’Arnaud. Olson has been one of their top run producers, ranking third on the team in RBIs and fourth in home runs. d’Arnaud is a close fifth in the dinger category, leading to the third-best slugging percentage among hitters with more than 40 games played.

The Braves rate as the top stacking option on tonight’s slate, and combining the top five hitters in their lineup results in the highest projected fantasy point total.