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MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays & Top Stack for August 5

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

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Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Lars Nootbaar ($2,200): Outfielder, St. Louis Cardinals

What a great name. The 24-year-old outfielder has shown some life at the plate for the Cardinals over the last few weeks.

Batting .227 on the season, Nootbaar hit .317 in July and is hitting .444 so far in August. He has a +4.69 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

He is an interesting lineup filler tonight against Nestor Cortes and the Yankees. The Cardinals will need to keep up with the Bronx Bombers’ offensive production.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Tim Anderson ($3,200): Shortstop, Chicago White Sox

We know this guy can hit. On the season, Anderson is batting .309, but July and August were not kind to the new Subway spokesman.

Anderson has a -4.24 Plus/Minus rating over his last 10 games, and his salary has dipped by $600 over the season. Now could be the time to start buying Anderson in the bargain bin.

He has a plus matchup against Rangers right-hander Glenn Otto tonight. Otto is 4-7 with a 5.50 ERA in 15 starts this season.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Dylan Cease ($10,400 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel) at Texas Rangers

The four-year veteran is having by far his best season on the mound for the White Sox. He is 11-4 with an incredible 2.01 ERA. Cease leads the majors in strikeouts per nine innings, giving him plenty of upside from a fantasy perspective.

Over the last month, Cease has a +9.26 Plus/Minus rating and has posted at least 20 DraftKings points in all but one start since June 9. We saw his ceiling potential on June 26 when he scored 40.75 DraftKings points in just seven innings of work against the Orioles.

The Rangers have one of the lower implied run totals on the slate. Cease’s salary has risen throughout the season, but his upside potential still makes him a lineup play at these price levels.


Hitter

Christian Yelich ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds

He may not be putting up monster home run numbers, but Christian Yelich is having a solid 2022 campaign.

After the All-Star break, Yelich has double-digit DraftKings point performances in half of his 12 games, without a dinger in that span. His last home run came on July 2. If he can tap into some power reserves, Yelich has lots of upside for his price tag.

The Brewers take on Reds starter Robert Dugger who is making his first start of the season after starting the year in Tampa. Dugger has a career 6.97 ERA in 82.2 innings. Take a shot on Yelich tonight.

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Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Astros. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

Note: There is precipitation projected in the forecast for this game. Be sure to monitor the status of this game leading up to lock.

The Astros continue their weekend series in Cleveland tonight against right-hander Bryan Shaw. The veteran reliever is making his third start of his 12-year major league career, all of which have come in 2022. He holds a 4-2 record this season, but his 5.49 ERA is well above his career average.

Yordan Alvarez leads the Astros stack tonight in an attempt to break a six-game negative Plus/Minus streak. On the season, he has incredible numbers with a .442 wOBA and 95.7 average exit velocity, both of which rank in the top 1% of the league.

On the other hand, Jose Altuve has five double-digit DraftKings point results in his last six games. The versatile second baseman recently made his eighth All-Star team. His ceiling may not be as high as some, but Altuve is a consistent threat at the plate and in fantasy lineups.

Alex Bregman is happy to see a righty on the mound tonight, given his .366 wOBA and .195 ISO against right-handed pitching. Bregman has low strikeout numbers for the year, and anything can happen when you put the ball in play.

The stack finishes off with outfielder Kyle Tucker and shortstop Jeremy Pena. Tucker has a +0.32 Plus/Minus on the season but has struggled with a -2.08 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

The promising rookie Pena had a great first half of the season but fell off in July. He did have six home runs but managed just a .208 batting average in the month.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Lars Nootbaar ($2,200): Outfielder, St. Louis Cardinals

What a great name. The 24-year-old outfielder has shown some life at the plate for the Cardinals over the last few weeks.

Batting .227 on the season, Nootbaar hit .317 in July and is hitting .444 so far in August. He has a +4.69 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

He is an interesting lineup filler tonight against Nestor Cortes and the Yankees. The Cardinals will need to keep up with the Bronx Bombers’ offensive production.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Tim Anderson ($3,200): Shortstop, Chicago White Sox

We know this guy can hit. On the season, Anderson is batting .309, but July and August were not kind to the new Subway spokesman.

Anderson has a -4.24 Plus/Minus rating over his last 10 games, and his salary has dipped by $600 over the season. Now could be the time to start buying Anderson in the bargain bin.

He has a plus matchup against Rangers right-hander Glenn Otto tonight. Otto is 4-7 with a 5.50 ERA in 15 starts this season.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Dylan Cease ($10,400 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel) at Texas Rangers

The four-year veteran is having by far his best season on the mound for the White Sox. He is 11-4 with an incredible 2.01 ERA. Cease leads the majors in strikeouts per nine innings, giving him plenty of upside from a fantasy perspective.

Over the last month, Cease has a +9.26 Plus/Minus rating and has posted at least 20 DraftKings points in all but one start since June 9. We saw his ceiling potential on June 26 when he scored 40.75 DraftKings points in just seven innings of work against the Orioles.

The Rangers have one of the lower implied run totals on the slate. Cease’s salary has risen throughout the season, but his upside potential still makes him a lineup play at these price levels.


Hitter

Christian Yelich ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds

He may not be putting up monster home run numbers, but Christian Yelich is having a solid 2022 campaign.

After the All-Star break, Yelich has double-digit DraftKings point performances in half of his 12 games, without a dinger in that span. His last home run came on July 2. If he can tap into some power reserves, Yelich has lots of upside for his price tag.

The Brewers take on Reds starter Robert Dugger who is making his first start of the season after starting the year in Tampa. Dugger has a career 6.97 ERA in 82.2 innings. Take a shot on Yelich tonight.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Astros. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

Note: There is precipitation projected in the forecast for this game. Be sure to monitor the status of this game leading up to lock.

The Astros continue their weekend series in Cleveland tonight against right-hander Bryan Shaw. The veteran reliever is making his third start of his 12-year major league career, all of which have come in 2022. He holds a 4-2 record this season, but his 5.49 ERA is well above his career average.

Yordan Alvarez leads the Astros stack tonight in an attempt to break a six-game negative Plus/Minus streak. On the season, he has incredible numbers with a .442 wOBA and 95.7 average exit velocity, both of which rank in the top 1% of the league.

On the other hand, Jose Altuve has five double-digit DraftKings point results in his last six games. The versatile second baseman recently made his eighth All-Star team. His ceiling may not be as high as some, but Altuve is a consistent threat at the plate and in fantasy lineups.

Alex Bregman is happy to see a righty on the mound tonight, given his .366 wOBA and .195 ISO against right-handed pitching. Bregman has low strikeout numbers for the year, and anything can happen when you put the ball in play.

The stack finishes off with outfielder Kyle Tucker and shortstop Jeremy Pena. Tucker has a +0.32 Plus/Minus on the season but has struggled with a -2.08 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

The promising rookie Pena had a great first half of the season but fell off in July. He did have six home runs but managed just a .208 batting average in the month.