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MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays, and Top Stack on May 16

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

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Real-time DFS models

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Yonathan Daza ($2,700): Outfielder, Colorado Rockies

Daza has impressed in his second full MLB season with a .383 average and .415 wOBA.

His ceiling may not be sky-high with his lack of power, but he has a +3.47 Plus/Minus rating over his last 10 games and is on an eight-game hitting streak.

The Rockies and Giants have two of the highest implied run totals tonight as Daza faces left-hander Alex Wood. He may be a good low-ownership dart throw tonight.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Gleyber Torres ($2,600): Second Baseman/Shortstop, New York Yankees

Torres has had four 20+ point FanDuel performances since April 29 and is among league leaders in xSLG, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.

He remains far down the salary list at both second base and shortstop, providing significant bargain potential against the Orioles’ Kyle Bradish. Bradish has allowed eight earned runs and three home runs in just 15 innings of work this season.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Luis Severino ($8,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) at Baltimore Orioles

In six starts this season, Severino is 2-0 with a 4.08 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 28.2 innings. He has only finished the sixth inning on one occasion but still has three performances of at least 27 DraftKings points.

The Orioles have the lowest implied run total on the slate, and they fall in the bottom third of the league in batting average, home runs, and strikeouts. Severino could have another solid outing tonight, even if he doesn’t work into the later innings.

Severino is the seventh-highest DraftKings salary for pitchers on the slate but the second-highest ceiling projection.


Hitter

Joe Pederson ($4,200 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies

The Colorado air lifts every hitter’s ceiling, and tonight is no different for Pederson.

Let’s start with the good news. Pederson is coming off a strong performance yesterday in St. Louis, including his seventh home run of the season.

The bad news? He has two hits in his last 31 at bats.

His salary has now dipped to a desirable area, and a series in Colorado may be just what Pederson needs to get back on track. Look for a potential boom game tonight.

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Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

The Dodgers have the highest implied run total on the slate outside Coors Field.

Trea Turner remains a high-ownership stalwart in daily fantasy lineups. He is on a seven-game hit streak, with extra-base knocks in four. A mix of power and consistency, Turner has one of the highest max EV ratings in the league and a 50% hard-hit percentage.

After a slow start to the year, Mookie Betts has turned it on as of late. He has a home run in each of his last two games and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.68 over his previous 10 games.

On the other hand, perennial all-star Freddie Freeman has cooled off from his hot start. His DraftKings salary has dipped $700 from his season-high, making him a potential bargain play today as just the seventh-priciest first baseman. He is still in the top-2% of the league in xwOBA, according to Baseball Savant.

Will Smith and Max Muncy round out the stack, and both have the highest projected points on the slate at their positions.

The Dodgers face veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner tonight for the Diamondbacks. In seven starts, he has an impressive 1.78 ERA, but with a low strikeout rate and high walk totals. Look for the Dodgers to take advantage of runners on base and put up some runs.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Yonathan Daza ($2,700): Outfielder, Colorado Rockies

Daza has impressed in his second full MLB season with a .383 average and .415 wOBA.

His ceiling may not be sky-high with his lack of power, but he has a +3.47 Plus/Minus rating over his last 10 games and is on an eight-game hitting streak.

The Rockies and Giants have two of the highest implied run totals tonight as Daza faces left-hander Alex Wood. He may be a good low-ownership dart throw tonight.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Gleyber Torres ($2,600): Second Baseman/Shortstop, New York Yankees

Torres has had four 20+ point FanDuel performances since April 29 and is among league leaders in xSLG, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.

He remains far down the salary list at both second base and shortstop, providing significant bargain potential against the Orioles’ Kyle Bradish. Bradish has allowed eight earned runs and three home runs in just 15 innings of work this season.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Luis Severino ($8,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) at Baltimore Orioles

In six starts this season, Severino is 2-0 with a 4.08 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 28.2 innings. He has only finished the sixth inning on one occasion but still has three performances of at least 27 DraftKings points.

The Orioles have the lowest implied run total on the slate, and they fall in the bottom third of the league in batting average, home runs, and strikeouts. Severino could have another solid outing tonight, even if he doesn’t work into the later innings.

Severino is the seventh-highest DraftKings salary for pitchers on the slate but the second-highest ceiling projection.


Hitter

Joe Pederson ($4,200 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies

The Colorado air lifts every hitter’s ceiling, and tonight is no different for Pederson.

Let’s start with the good news. Pederson is coming off a strong performance yesterday in St. Louis, including his seventh home run of the season.

The bad news? He has two hits in his last 31 at bats.

His salary has now dipped to a desirable area, and a series in Colorado may be just what Pederson needs to get back on track. Look for a potential boom game tonight.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

The Dodgers have the highest implied run total on the slate outside Coors Field.

Trea Turner remains a high-ownership stalwart in daily fantasy lineups. He is on a seven-game hit streak, with extra-base knocks in four. A mix of power and consistency, Turner has one of the highest max EV ratings in the league and a 50% hard-hit percentage.

After a slow start to the year, Mookie Betts has turned it on as of late. He has a home run in each of his last two games and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.68 over his previous 10 games.

On the other hand, perennial all-star Freddie Freeman has cooled off from his hot start. His DraftKings salary has dipped $700 from his season-high, making him a potential bargain play today as just the seventh-priciest first baseman. He is still in the top-2% of the league in xwOBA, according to Baseball Savant.

Will Smith and Max Muncy round out the stack, and both have the highest projected points on the slate at their positions.

The Dodgers face veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner tonight for the Diamondbacks. In seven starts, he has an impressive 1.78 ERA, but with a low strikeout rate and high walk totals. Look for the Dodgers to take advantage of runners on base and put up some runs.