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MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays, and Top Stack on May 13

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

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Real-time DFS models

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Jordan Lyles ($5,400): Pitcher, Baltimore Orioles

Looking for a low-salary pitching option to make room for your stud hitters? Lyles looks like a great option tonight against Detroit.

He is 2-2 on the season with a 4.05 ERA in six starts. He pitches to contact and will allow some hard-hit balls, but Lyles has managed four positive Plus/Minus games in his last five outings. A shelling from the Yankees on April 26 is the outlier.

The Tigers do not scare you at the plate. They are near the bottom of the league in batting average and are last in the majors with just 12 total home runs in their first 32 games. Lyles could be a steal at the price tag tonight.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Nolan Arenado ($3,900): Third Baseman, St. Louis Cardinals

Arenado has shown top-end scoring potential at times this season with eight 20+ FanDuel point performances, but it’s been over a week since he’s reached that mark.

The 31-year-old is among league leaders with a .421 wOBA on the year and has three straight games with extra-base hits.

He is a solid option tonight against San Francisco right-hander Logan Webb. Webb has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Gerrit Cole ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) at Chicago White Sox

Fourth in salary on both sites, Cole has the highest projected points and highest ceiling on the slate.

Cole is 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 29.6 K%. He is coming off three-straight positive Plus/Minus outings with only one earned run allowed in that span of 19 innings.

His price has dipped to a finger-licking range against a White Sox team that is in the bottom third of the league in batting average. Chicago is stingy with swings and misses, with the second-lowest strikeout total in the league, but Cole did have a season-high 10 strikeouts in his last start.


Hitter

Ronald Acuna Jr. ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. San Diego Padres

Assuming Acuna Jr. is back in the lineup today after missing Wednesday’s game due to groin soreness, he is a top-end option in lineups.

Acuna Jr. has four-straight double-digit DraftKings point performances prior to the injury and has reached base safely in every game this season.

He hits the ball hard, finishing near the top of the league in the top-3% of the league in max EV each of the last three seasons, according to Baseball Savant. Buy into the uptrend with Acuna tonight against Yu Darvish and the Padres.

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Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool comes from the Seattle Mariners. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

The Royals and Rockies have the two highest implied run totals on the slate tonight in the thin Colorado air.

Salvador Perez is the highest-priced catcher on the slate. After leading the majors in home runs and RBI last season, Perez is still finding his form in 2022. His .276 wOBA is well below career marks, but he does have three multi-hit games in his last six.

A consistent producer this season, Andrew Benintendi is hitting .314 at the plate, much higher than his career-best mark. But 29 of his 33 hits this season are singles. Colorado may be what he needs for a power boost.

Bobby Witt Jr. has the highest projected points with the 11th highest salary for third basemen on the slate. He is a great bargain play today with a +0.92 Plus/Minus Rating over his last 10 games.

Hunter Dozier and Whit Merrifield round out the stack. Dozier’s salary has nearly doubled over the last 10 days, despite just one double-digit DraftKings point performance. Merrifield is two days removed from his first boom game of the year, a 31-point explosion that included his first home run of 2022.

The Royals will take on Colorado left-hander Kyle Freeland who is 1-3 with a 3.94 ERA on the year.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Jordan Lyles ($5,400): Pitcher, Baltimore Orioles

Looking for a low-salary pitching option to make room for your stud hitters? Lyles looks like a great option tonight against Detroit.

He is 2-2 on the season with a 4.05 ERA in six starts. He pitches to contact and will allow some hard-hit balls, but Lyles has managed four positive Plus/Minus games in his last five outings. A shelling from the Yankees on April 26 is the outlier.

The Tigers do not scare you at the plate. They are near the bottom of the league in batting average and are last in the majors with just 12 total home runs in their first 32 games. Lyles could be a steal at the price tag tonight.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Nolan Arenado ($3,900): Third Baseman, St. Louis Cardinals

Arenado has shown top-end scoring potential at times this season with eight 20+ FanDuel point performances, but it’s been over a week since he’s reached that mark.

The 31-year-old is among league leaders with a .421 wOBA on the year and has three straight games with extra-base hits.

He is a solid option tonight against San Francisco right-hander Logan Webb. Webb has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Gerrit Cole ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) at Chicago White Sox

Fourth in salary on both sites, Cole has the highest projected points and highest ceiling on the slate.

Cole is 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 29.6 K%. He is coming off three-straight positive Plus/Minus outings with only one earned run allowed in that span of 19 innings.

His price has dipped to a finger-licking range against a White Sox team that is in the bottom third of the league in batting average. Chicago is stingy with swings and misses, with the second-lowest strikeout total in the league, but Cole did have a season-high 10 strikeouts in his last start.


Hitter

Ronald Acuna Jr. ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. San Diego Padres

Assuming Acuna Jr. is back in the lineup today after missing Wednesday’s game due to groin soreness, he is a top-end option in lineups.

Acuna Jr. has four-straight double-digit DraftKings point performances prior to the injury and has reached base safely in every game this season.

He hits the ball hard, finishing near the top of the league in the top-3% of the league in max EV each of the last three seasons, according to Baseball Savant. Buy into the uptrend with Acuna tonight against Yu Darvish and the Padres.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool comes from the Seattle Mariners. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

The Royals and Rockies have the two highest implied run totals on the slate tonight in the thin Colorado air.

Salvador Perez is the highest-priced catcher on the slate. After leading the majors in home runs and RBI last season, Perez is still finding his form in 2022. His .276 wOBA is well below career marks, but he does have three multi-hit games in his last six.

A consistent producer this season, Andrew Benintendi is hitting .314 at the plate, much higher than his career-best mark. But 29 of his 33 hits this season are singles. Colorado may be what he needs for a power boost.

Bobby Witt Jr. has the highest projected points with the 11th highest salary for third basemen on the slate. He is a great bargain play today with a +0.92 Plus/Minus Rating over his last 10 games.

Hunter Dozier and Whit Merrifield round out the stack. Dozier’s salary has nearly doubled over the last 10 days, despite just one double-digit DraftKings point performance. Merrifield is two days removed from his first boom game of the year, a 31-point explosion that included his first home run of 2022.

The Royals will take on Colorado left-hander Kyle Freeland who is 1-3 with a 3.94 ERA on the year.