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MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays, and Top Stack on May 10

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Garrett Cooper ($2,600): First Baseman, Miami Marlins

Leading the way in not only THE BAT for the highest projected Plus/Minus play on DraftKings but also our in-house projections is Garrett Cooper. He is a great value batting third for the Marlins, who are projected for 4.6 runs tonight against left-hander Madison Bumgarner. Cooper had his second home run of the season last night as he’ll look to make it back-to-back nights with a long ball.

Cooper is off to a bit of a slow start this season. However, where Cooper does shine is against left-handed pitchers. For his career, Cooper has a .356 wOBA, .210 ISO, and a .839 OPS against southpaws. Bumgarner was ejected in his recent outing against the Marlins due to foreign substance as the 32-year-old is looking for any advantage he can get nowadays. He has a career-low 5.63 K/9 this season.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Brad Miller ($2,400): First Baseman/Outfielder, Texas Rangers

After a hot start to the season, Brad Miller has struggled a little bit recently. On the season, Miller has a career-low .244 wOBA and a .156 ISO. He does have three home runs already but is only walking at a 3% rate which is extremely low for him. The positives are he has a career-high fly-ball rate and still has a relatively high 38.3% hard-hit rate. He has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel tonight.

Similar to Bumgarner, Brad Keller has started the season off with a career-low K/9 at 5.52. He also has a 81.9% left on-base percentage which is extremely high, which means he has been getting quite lucky. Keller’s ERA is only 1.74, but he is still a pitcher we can exploit. Miller also benefits facing a right-handed pitcher as his numbers look way better. He has a .332 wOBA and a .204 ISO, proving his upside.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Aaron Nola ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) at Seattle Mariners

Both Aaron Nola and Robbie Ray are popping as great options in what should be a pitcher’s duel in Seattle tonight. Facing the Mariners, who have lost 11 of their last 13 games, feels a little more promising, which is why Nola is the preferred option. The Mariners have a .211 team wOBA, which is the fifth-lowest on the slate. Nola has averaged 26.4 DraftKings points per game in three-straight starts lasting six or more innings in each game.

Nola is projected to be the second-most popular pitcher behind Justin Verlander, but it is deserving. The Mariners are only implied for 3.4 runs as the weather is also quite cold in Seattle this evening. Nola has a career-best 2.59 xERA, which goes to show how unlucky he has been thus far. He has a double-digit K/9 for the fourth-straight season. It is only a matter of time until he starts racking up the wins again.


Hitter

Jose Ramirez ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) at Chicago White Sox

Even though the Guardians are only implied for 3.5 runs tonight, Jose Ramirez is one of the best hitters on the slate. He leads the league with 30 RBI as he has hit seven home runs and a career-high .438 wOBA. It also helps Ramirez has a career-low 7.8% strikeout percentage. The Guardians have won eight of their last 10, and Ramirez is a big reason why, even though he only has one home run during that time.

White Sox starter Lucas Giolito has given up two home runs in back-to-back starts. He is still a very solid pitcher who has is off to a great start. Giolito has a 14.64 K/9 but has a 92% left on-base percentage. He may easily get through the rest of this Guardians lineup, but Ramirez has given him trouble in the past. It is probably best to keep Ramirez as a one-off play rather than in a full stack tonight.

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Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

It is a bit surprising this Los Angeles Angels lineup came in as the top option, mainly because the ownership on each of these players is going to be ridiculously low!

The Angels are only implied for 4.2 runs tonight, which is the 10th-highest on the slate. Hard to go against THE BAT projections, though, so we’ll roll with the Angels.

Taylor Ward expects to return tonight after missing last night’s game due to hamstring soreness. Ward is off to an incredible 2022 campaign. He has a .502 wOBA and a .312 ISO – insane numbers! He comes at a little bit of a value among the rest of the big Angels hitters.

The first big Angel hitter is in the second hole with Mike Trout. There isn’t much to add with Trout as he is one of the best players in the league. He leads the team with seven home runs as he will be contending once again for the American League MVP award.

Shohei Ohtani is one of the league’s brightest young stars. He leads the team with 30 hits as he has become an ace on the mount as well. Ohtani is coming off of two home runs last night and three total hits. When stacking the Angels, make sure to get Ohtani in that lineup even at this salary.

Anthony Rendon is off to a bit of a slow start as he has just two hits in his last 19 plate appearances. The veteran has a career-low .306 wOBA but still has some pop left in the bat. Rendon is much better on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating. He is still a valuable piece in a stack.

Lastly, Jared Walsh comes in batting fifth for the Angels. He dominates right-handed pitchers. Walsh, for his career, has a .385 wOBA, .254 ISO, and a 40.1% hard-hit rate. The matchup may be tough, but Walsh is obviously one of the best hitters on the team against right-handed pitchers.

The ownership is low on this Angels stack mainly because of Rays’ starting pitcher Corey Kluber. The Rays, as they normally like to do, are monitoring pitch counts like crazy. Kluber has back-to-back impressive starts against the Athletics and Twins, throwing six complete innings in both games and only allowing four total hits. However, he threw 71 and 64 pitches in those games. Kluber has been dominant lately, but the Angels may face him on a pitch limit. He hasn’t topped 90 pitches all season. The matchup is tough, but they can get to him.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Garrett Cooper ($2,600): First Baseman, Miami Marlins

Leading the way in not only THE BAT for the highest projected Plus/Minus play on DraftKings but also our in-house projections is Garrett Cooper. He is a great value batting third for the Marlins, who are projected for 4.6 runs tonight against left-hander Madison Bumgarner. Cooper had his second home run of the season last night as he’ll look to make it back-to-back nights with a long ball.

Cooper is off to a bit of a slow start this season. However, where Cooper does shine is against left-handed pitchers. For his career, Cooper has a .356 wOBA, .210 ISO, and a .839 OPS against southpaws. Bumgarner was ejected in his recent outing against the Marlins due to foreign substance as the 32-year-old is looking for any advantage he can get nowadays. He has a career-low 5.63 K/9 this season.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Brad Miller ($2,400): First Baseman/Outfielder, Texas Rangers

After a hot start to the season, Brad Miller has struggled a little bit recently. On the season, Miller has a career-low .244 wOBA and a .156 ISO. He does have three home runs already but is only walking at a 3% rate which is extremely low for him. The positives are he has a career-high fly-ball rate and still has a relatively high 38.3% hard-hit rate. He has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel tonight.

Similar to Bumgarner, Brad Keller has started the season off with a career-low K/9 at 5.52. He also has a 81.9% left on-base percentage which is extremely high, which means he has been getting quite lucky. Keller’s ERA is only 1.74, but he is still a pitcher we can exploit. Miller also benefits facing a right-handed pitcher as his numbers look way better. He has a .332 wOBA and a .204 ISO, proving his upside.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Aaron Nola ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) at Seattle Mariners

Both Aaron Nola and Robbie Ray are popping as great options in what should be a pitcher’s duel in Seattle tonight. Facing the Mariners, who have lost 11 of their last 13 games, feels a little more promising, which is why Nola is the preferred option. The Mariners have a .211 team wOBA, which is the fifth-lowest on the slate. Nola has averaged 26.4 DraftKings points per game in three-straight starts lasting six or more innings in each game.

Nola is projected to be the second-most popular pitcher behind Justin Verlander, but it is deserving. The Mariners are only implied for 3.4 runs as the weather is also quite cold in Seattle this evening. Nola has a career-best 2.59 xERA, which goes to show how unlucky he has been thus far. He has a double-digit K/9 for the fourth-straight season. It is only a matter of time until he starts racking up the wins again.


Hitter

Jose Ramirez ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) at Chicago White Sox

Even though the Guardians are only implied for 3.5 runs tonight, Jose Ramirez is one of the best hitters on the slate. He leads the league with 30 RBI as he has hit seven home runs and a career-high .438 wOBA. It also helps Ramirez has a career-low 7.8% strikeout percentage. The Guardians have won eight of their last 10, and Ramirez is a big reason why, even though he only has one home run during that time.

White Sox starter Lucas Giolito has given up two home runs in back-to-back starts. He is still a very solid pitcher who has is off to a great start. Giolito has a 14.64 K/9 but has a 92% left on-base percentage. He may easily get through the rest of this Guardians lineup, but Ramirez has given him trouble in the past. It is probably best to keep Ramirez as a one-off play rather than in a full stack tonight.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

It is a bit surprising this Los Angeles Angels lineup came in as the top option, mainly because the ownership on each of these players is going to be ridiculously low!

The Angels are only implied for 4.2 runs tonight, which is the 10th-highest on the slate. Hard to go against THE BAT projections, though, so we’ll roll with the Angels.

Taylor Ward expects to return tonight after missing last night’s game due to hamstring soreness. Ward is off to an incredible 2022 campaign. He has a .502 wOBA and a .312 ISO – insane numbers! He comes at a little bit of a value among the rest of the big Angels hitters.

The first big Angel hitter is in the second hole with Mike Trout. There isn’t much to add with Trout as he is one of the best players in the league. He leads the team with seven home runs as he will be contending once again for the American League MVP award.

Shohei Ohtani is one of the league’s brightest young stars. He leads the team with 30 hits as he has become an ace on the mount as well. Ohtani is coming off of two home runs last night and three total hits. When stacking the Angels, make sure to get Ohtani in that lineup even at this salary.

Anthony Rendon is off to a bit of a slow start as he has just two hits in his last 19 plate appearances. The veteran has a career-low .306 wOBA but still has some pop left in the bat. Rendon is much better on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating. He is still a valuable piece in a stack.

Lastly, Jared Walsh comes in batting fifth for the Angels. He dominates right-handed pitchers. Walsh, for his career, has a .385 wOBA, .254 ISO, and a 40.1% hard-hit rate. The matchup may be tough, but Walsh is obviously one of the best hitters on the team against right-handed pitchers.

The ownership is low on this Angels stack mainly because of Rays’ starting pitcher Corey Kluber. The Rays, as they normally like to do, are monitoring pitch counts like crazy. Kluber has back-to-back impressive starts against the Athletics and Twins, throwing six complete innings in both games and only allowing four total hits. However, he threw 71 and 64 pitches in those games. Kluber has been dominant lately, but the Angels may face him on a pitch limit. He hasn’t topped 90 pitches all season. The matchup is tough, but they can get to him.