The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jed Lowrie ($2,000): Second Baseman, Oakland Athletics
After being a more contrarian option last night against the very popular Marco Gonzales, Jed Lowrie may be a little more popular tonight as he remains minimum priced while still projected to bat third. Lowrie has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus in not only THE BAT but also our in-house projections. He makes a fantastic salary saver at a position that can be difficult to find options. Lowrie has a 97% Bargain Rating.
The Athletics as a team have an 82 Team Value Rating as most of their batters are priced either at minimum price or barely above it. They are implied to score 3.4 runs against rookie right-hander George Kirby. The rookie was electric in his first start striking out seven in six innings and not allowing a run. However, he is coming off of five earned runs and two home runs in his most recent start. The veteran Lowrie can take advantage.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Pavin Smith ($2,300): First Baseman/Outfielder, Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected to bat second on our lineups page, Pavin Smith has a 72% Bargain Rating and dual position eligibility. Smith has been heating up as he has two home runs in his last three games and at least one RBI in five of his last six games. Despite his recent success, Smith’s price has not budged. He still remains a great value on FanDuel and is second in our in-house projections for projected Plus/Minus along with four Pro Trends.
The red-hot Smith will get a matchup against right-hander Jon Heasley who was called up from AAA this season to help the Royals pitching staff. Heasley is the lowest-priced pitcher on the slate and has a ridiculously low 4.9% strikeout rate. He has only had two starts, but he has allowed seven walks to two strikeouts with a 4.39 ERA. The Diamondbacks stack will be very popular as they are implied for 5.1 runs but start with Smith.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Blake Snell ($7,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
There is a minor disagreement with the top ceiling pitcher for THE BAT and our in-house projections, but one thing both can agree on is Blake Snell has the second-highest ceiling on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Snell’s first start since returning from a groin injury was a little rough. He allowed three earned runs in 3.2 innings as 46 of his 84 pitches were strikes. His salary has gotten out of hand, though, especially on FanDuel.
The Padres are slight home underdogs against the Brewers, who are throwing Corbin Burnes. This matchup should be a pitcher’s duel as both offenses are implied for 3.5 or fewer runs. The projected Plus/Minus for FanDuel is absurd for Snell tonight. I wouldn’t be too concerned about his first outing. Snell is a veteran who has had above a 30% strikeout rate for four-straight seasons. Take the discount on the southpaw.
Mookie Betts ($5,700 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) at Washington Nationals
Aaron Judge worked out for us yesterday as he hit two home runs and finished with 32 DraftKings points. You can definitely go back to him tonight if you wish, but we’ll go with the very consistent Mookie Betts. It is tough to find a player as hot as Betts is right now. Over his last 11 games, he is batting .378 with five home runs, seven doubles, and 13 RBI. During that time, he has a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in nine games.
After putting up 10 runs last game, the Dodgers are implied for 5.2 tonight, which is the highest on the slate. Betts will bat in the leadoff spot against right-hander Josiah Gray who has given up a 1.87 HR/9 in his eight starts this season. Gray has a respectable 25.3% strikeout rate but has trouble with the long ball. Last season in 13 starts, Gray had a 2.52 HR/9. This could be a short outing for Gray against the Dodgers tonight.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Angels. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
From the Los Angeles Dodgers yesterday, we go to another Los Angeles team tonight in the Angels, who are implied to score 4.9 runs but have too much power to ignore.
The Angels open up a two-series set against the Texas Rangers, who swept them in three games just last week. We’ll see if the Angels can get some revenge tonight.
Shohei Ohtani leads off and ranks as one of the best options in not only THE BAT but our in-house projections as well. He leads the Angels in hits, RBI, and plate appearances. Ohtani has had two hits in back-to-back games and should dominate in this matchup against a right-handed pitcher. Best option on the Angels.
Mike Trout bats second as this Ohtani/Trout one-two combo is one of the best in the league. Trout leads the Angels in home runs with 12 and is second in the entire league in on-base percentage with .434. Trout has a career-high .376 ISO and a .478 wOBA. Both Trout and Ohtani are good one-offs as well.
This five-man stack falls off a little bit after Ohtani and Trout, but batting third is veteran Anthony Rendon. He has had two hits in three of his last five games after a slow start to the season. His home run pop is going away, but Rendon is second on the team in doubles behind Trout.
Jared Walsh is your typical boom or bust southpaw hitter. He struggles with a high 27.4% strikeout rate, but has a 45.5% hard-hit rate. When making contact, Walsh is delivering from the plate. He will get the platoon advantage, which will help as seven of his eight home runs have come against right-handed pitchers.
Skipping down to the sixth spot with Brandon Marsh is the preferred approach for this stack. Similar to Walsh, Marsh struggles with the strikeouts with a 32.4% strikeout rate. He also has a 40% hard-hit rate this season and will also benefit with the platoon advantage. He is a strong value play.
Dane Dunning will draw the start for the Rangers. Three of his five home runs given up have come in two starts against the Angels this season. Dunning has given up seven earned runs in his last two starts combined but does come with strikeout upside. However, he is allowing a career-high 41.5% hard-hit rate and has a 3.92 ERA. The Angels should be able to take advantage of this home matchup against Dunning.