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MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays, and Top Stack for July 12

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Michael Taylor ($2,300): Outfield, Kansas City Royals

Just behind several Padres value players is Royals outfielder Michael Taylor. Priced at $2,300, Taylor has a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Saving on Taylor is an excellent route with a stud pitcher and a few expensive batters in great spots. He has a .321 wOBA and career-highs in on-base percentage, wRC+, and walk rate. The fact that he’s expected to bat leadoff also helps.

Taylor will draw a matchup against Tigers rookie Beau Brieske, who is 2-6 with a 4.16 ERA in his 14 starts. Brieske allowed only two hits in his last start through 6.1 innings, which was one of his best outings. Still, Brieske owns just a 15.7% strikeout rate and has just two games where he has recorded over four strikeouts. Taylor’s career-low 23.7% strikeout rate matches up perfectly in this spot as he looks to continue his outstanding season.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Jesse Winker ($2,700): Outfield, Seattle Mariners

Jesse Winker is eligible to return after serving a seven-game suspension for his role in the benches-clearing melee that occurred on June 26th. The melee hasn’t slowed down the Mariners as they have won 16 of their last 19 games, including eight straight. Winker has struggled in his first season with the Mariners as he has a career-low .308 wOBA and .111 ISO, but this is a great bounce-back spot.

Josiah Gray will take the mound for the Nationals, who have lost 10 of their last 11 games. Gray has an impressive 26.8% strikeout rate as he leads the Nationals in strikeouts and wins. However, a 36.7% hard-hit rate and a 1.86 HR/9 allowed has been his downfall. When he gets hit, he tends to get hit hard. Gray has allowed at least one home run in 12 of his 16 games. A long ball would be a poetic return for Winker.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Gerrit Cole ($10,500 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds

Gerrit Cole is once again in a class of his own on Tuesday’s slate. Not only does Cole have the highest ceiling projection in THE BAT, but also our in-house projections. He is the most expensive pitcher on the slate and has by far the highest projected ownership. Cole has over a 30% strikeout rate for the fifth-straight season paired with a 1.03 WHIP, and he ranks fourth among all pitchers with an 11.23 K/9.

The Yankees are absurd -331 favorites, the highest on the slate as the Reds are only implied for 3.1 runs. The Reds rank in the top-five in strikeout rate and the bottom-10 of wOBA and ISO. Cole’s only weakness has been the long ball — he’s allowed 1.45 HR/9 — but the Reds rank just 23rd in home runs.

Expect another dominant Cole outing.


Hitter

Jose Ramirez ($5,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox

Despite struggling in July, Jose Ramirez stills comes in with the highest ceiling on the slate according to THE BAT. He does everything for the Guardians, who remain second in the AL Central. Ramirez leads the team in hits, home runs, RBI, on-base percentage, and stolen bases. He also has a 10.0% strikeout rate, which is tied for the lowest of his career. Ramirez will get plenty of opportunities to add to his hit total tonight.

White Sox ace Dylan Cease will take the mound after many considered him an All-Star snub. In his fourth season in the big leagues, Cease has been dominant with a 34.3% strikeout rate, 2.45 ERA, and a 0.78 HR/9. This is a stud vs. stud matchup with Ramirez and Cease. The most intriguing part with Ramirez is that he has been incredible against right-handed pitching this season. He has a .323 ISO, .425 wOBA, and a .305 average compared to a .195 ISO, .319 wOBA, and a .241 average against southpaws. The matchup is scary, but Ramirez is good enough to succeed against anyone.

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Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the New York Yankees. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

We all know Coors Field boosts offensive numbers, especially for road teams who always get a ninth-inning at bat. The numbers feel even more inflated when a team like the Padres heads to Coors Field. The Padres are 50-38 this season and provide a lot of offensive weapons.

The Padres are implied for a slate-high 6.1 runs, so expect nearly all of these players to be very popular.

Dual eligibility on both sites makes Ha-Seong Kim that much better in this leadoff spot. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus of anyone on this slate on DraftKings. Kim has double-digit DraftKings points in three of his last five games and remains a great value play to lead this stack off.

Jake Cronenworth has some crazy home/road splits this season. He has a .372 wOBA, .302 average and a 140 wRC+ on the road compared to .259 wOBA, .167 average and a 72 wRC+ at home. He homered and had three hits in last night’s game in Coors Field, so ride the hot road bat.

Manny Machado has the highest projection of anyone on this slate, and for good reason. He leads the Padres in basically every hitting statistic. In his 12th season, Machado is averaging a career-high .392 wOBA and a .310 average. He has a .228 ISO and is a must-lock for this stack against a left-handed pitcher.

Luke Voit has struggled a little bit in his first season with the Padres from a power perspective but still has a respectable .316 wOBA. Voit has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, which is the best place to target him. Regardless he is a great bat to have in the heart of this lineup.

Jorge Alfaro is the best catcher on the slate. He is another player in his first season with the Padres, but he has a career-high .166 ISO and .313 wOBA. Batting fifth for a catcher is a great value, especially being at Coors Field. Alfaro is a great way to round out this five-man Padres stack.

These prices minus Machado are simply too low for this matchup against Rockies southpaw Austin Gomber. All of these batters have the platoon advantage except Cronenworth. Gomber has been rocked to a 6.46 ERA and 1.62 HR/9, both of which are career-worst numbers. His splits are much worse against right-handed batters, so Gomber will have his work cut out for him in this matchup. It’s hard to see the Padres failing in this spot.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Michael Taylor ($2,300): Outfield, Kansas City Royals

Just behind several Padres value players is Royals outfielder Michael Taylor. Priced at $2,300, Taylor has a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Saving on Taylor is an excellent route with a stud pitcher and a few expensive batters in great spots. He has a .321 wOBA and career-highs in on-base percentage, wRC+, and walk rate. The fact that he’s expected to bat leadoff also helps.

Taylor will draw a matchup against Tigers rookie Beau Brieske, who is 2-6 with a 4.16 ERA in his 14 starts. Brieske allowed only two hits in his last start through 6.1 innings, which was one of his best outings. Still, Brieske owns just a 15.7% strikeout rate and has just two games where he has recorded over four strikeouts. Taylor’s career-low 23.7% strikeout rate matches up perfectly in this spot as he looks to continue his outstanding season.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Jesse Winker ($2,700): Outfield, Seattle Mariners

Jesse Winker is eligible to return after serving a seven-game suspension for his role in the benches-clearing melee that occurred on June 26th. The melee hasn’t slowed down the Mariners as they have won 16 of their last 19 games, including eight straight. Winker has struggled in his first season with the Mariners as he has a career-low .308 wOBA and .111 ISO, but this is a great bounce-back spot.

Josiah Gray will take the mound for the Nationals, who have lost 10 of their last 11 games. Gray has an impressive 26.8% strikeout rate as he leads the Nationals in strikeouts and wins. However, a 36.7% hard-hit rate and a 1.86 HR/9 allowed has been his downfall. When he gets hit, he tends to get hit hard. Gray has allowed at least one home run in 12 of his 16 games. A long ball would be a poetic return for Winker.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Gerrit Cole ($10,500 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds

Gerrit Cole is once again in a class of his own on Tuesday’s slate. Not only does Cole have the highest ceiling projection in THE BAT, but also our in-house projections. He is the most expensive pitcher on the slate and has by far the highest projected ownership. Cole has over a 30% strikeout rate for the fifth-straight season paired with a 1.03 WHIP, and he ranks fourth among all pitchers with an 11.23 K/9.

The Yankees are absurd -331 favorites, the highest on the slate as the Reds are only implied for 3.1 runs. The Reds rank in the top-five in strikeout rate and the bottom-10 of wOBA and ISO. Cole’s only weakness has been the long ball — he’s allowed 1.45 HR/9 — but the Reds rank just 23rd in home runs.

Expect another dominant Cole outing.


Hitter

Jose Ramirez ($5,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox

Despite struggling in July, Jose Ramirez stills comes in with the highest ceiling on the slate according to THE BAT. He does everything for the Guardians, who remain second in the AL Central. Ramirez leads the team in hits, home runs, RBI, on-base percentage, and stolen bases. He also has a 10.0% strikeout rate, which is tied for the lowest of his career. Ramirez will get plenty of opportunities to add to his hit total tonight.

White Sox ace Dylan Cease will take the mound after many considered him an All-Star snub. In his fourth season in the big leagues, Cease has been dominant with a 34.3% strikeout rate, 2.45 ERA, and a 0.78 HR/9. This is a stud vs. stud matchup with Ramirez and Cease. The most intriguing part with Ramirez is that he has been incredible against right-handed pitching this season. He has a .323 ISO, .425 wOBA, and a .305 average compared to a .195 ISO, .319 wOBA, and a .241 average against southpaws. The matchup is scary, but Ramirez is good enough to succeed against anyone.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the New York Yankees. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

We all know Coors Field boosts offensive numbers, especially for road teams who always get a ninth-inning at bat. The numbers feel even more inflated when a team like the Padres heads to Coors Field. The Padres are 50-38 this season and provide a lot of offensive weapons.

The Padres are implied for a slate-high 6.1 runs, so expect nearly all of these players to be very popular.

Dual eligibility on both sites makes Ha-Seong Kim that much better in this leadoff spot. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus of anyone on this slate on DraftKings. Kim has double-digit DraftKings points in three of his last five games and remains a great value play to lead this stack off.

Jake Cronenworth has some crazy home/road splits this season. He has a .372 wOBA, .302 average and a 140 wRC+ on the road compared to .259 wOBA, .167 average and a 72 wRC+ at home. He homered and had three hits in last night’s game in Coors Field, so ride the hot road bat.

Manny Machado has the highest projection of anyone on this slate, and for good reason. He leads the Padres in basically every hitting statistic. In his 12th season, Machado is averaging a career-high .392 wOBA and a .310 average. He has a .228 ISO and is a must-lock for this stack against a left-handed pitcher.

Luke Voit has struggled a little bit in his first season with the Padres from a power perspective but still has a respectable .316 wOBA. Voit has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, which is the best place to target him. Regardless he is a great bat to have in the heart of this lineup.

Jorge Alfaro is the best catcher on the slate. He is another player in his first season with the Padres, but he has a career-high .166 ISO and .313 wOBA. Batting fifth for a catcher is a great value, especially being at Coors Field. Alfaro is a great way to round out this five-man Padres stack.

These prices minus Machado are simply too low for this matchup against Rockies southpaw Austin Gomber. All of these batters have the platoon advantage except Cronenworth. Gomber has been rocked to a 6.46 ERA and 1.62 HR/9, both of which are career-worst numbers. His splits are much worse against right-handed batters, so Gomber will have his work cut out for him in this matchup. It’s hard to see the Padres failing in this spot.