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MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays, and Top Stack for July 1

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

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Real-time DFS models

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Brad Keller ($5,700): Pitcher, Kansas City Royals

With the 17th-highest pitching salary on the slate, Keller is projected for the 10th-highest total. He is a great cheaper option to pair with a high-priced stud in your pitching slots.

Keller gets the Tigers tonight in Detroit. As a team, the Tigers are batting just .228 (4th lowest in the MLB) and have 42 home runs (fewest in the MLB).

Hold your nose at his 2-9 record this season and focus on the matchup’s bargain potential.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Javier Baez ($2,900): Shortstop/Second Baseman, Detroit Tigers

Hedging bets against Keller, Baez is on a tear at the plate with a +9.32 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He has six 18+ FanDuel point games in that stretch.

His .222 average and seven home run season totals are less enticing, but that’s what puts him in bargain territory.

Baez is batting .268 in June and gets a strong matchup on paper against fellow bargain option Keller of the Royals tonight.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Corbin Burnes ($10,600 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel) at Pittsburgh Pirates

Burnes leads the National League with 119 strikeouts on the season to complement his 6-4 record and 2.41 ERA.

In his last four starts, Burnes has an impressive +9.93 Plus/Minus and at least eight strikeouts in each outing. He has eight 25+ DraftKings point performances in his 15 starts.

The Pirates have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate, along with the third-lowest team batting average in the league. He will be a highly-owned stud on tonight’s slate.


Hitter

Kris Bryant ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Bryant returned to the lineup on Monday after a back strain kept him sidelined for over a month. The four-time All-Star and former MVP is still getting his feet wet in new surroundings in Colorado.

In 20 games this season, Bryant is batting .267 with zero home runs and four RBI. All that said, he remains one of the cheaper high-ceiling players in the game.

Bryant gets the Coors Field boost tonight with a 94 Park Rating. He faces right-hander Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks, who is 6-5 with a 3.64 ERA this season.

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Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Yankees. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

Note: There is precipitation projected in the forecast for this game. Be sure to monitor the status of this game leading up to lock.

The Yankees travel to Cleveland tonight to start their weekend series. With the men in pinstripes off to a historically great start, their bats have shown plenty of stack potential, if you can fit in their salaries.

Aaron Judge is hammering the ball in 2022. He leads the majors with 29 home runs and 62 runs scored. He has the highest salary on the slate but is worth the start if you can afford him. Judge has three 20+ DraftKings point performances in his last nine games.

Among the league leaders with a .428 xwOBA and 53.8 hard-hit %, Giancarlo Stanton has a +2.65 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He needs to limit his strikeout numbers, but when he makes contact, the ball tends to go a long way.

In his second season in New York, former Cubs star Anthony Rizzo is taking the “Bronx Bombers” nickname to heart. He has already blasted 21 home runs and is on pace to crush his career-high of 32 home runs in a season.

Rounding out the stack are DJ LeMahieu and Josh Donaldson. LeMahieu is a consistent high floor, low ceiling option with a .262 average and low strikeout rate.

The 36-year-old Donaldson is the cheaper dart throw of the stack. He has not impressed this season but should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs batting behind his four potent teammates.

The Yankees have a plus matchup against Guardians right-hander Aaron Civale, who is 2-4 with a 7.20 ERA in nine starts this season. He has given up a high .379 wOBA and has allowed six earned runs in three different starts this season.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Brad Keller ($5,700): Pitcher, Kansas City Royals

With the 17th-highest pitching salary on the slate, Keller is projected for the 10th-highest total. He is a great cheaper option to pair with a high-priced stud in your pitching slots.

Keller gets the Tigers tonight in Detroit. As a team, the Tigers are batting just .228 (4th lowest in the MLB) and have 42 home runs (fewest in the MLB).

Hold your nose at his 2-9 record this season and focus on the matchup’s bargain potential.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Javier Baez ($2,900): Shortstop/Second Baseman, Detroit Tigers

Hedging bets against Keller, Baez is on a tear at the plate with a +9.32 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He has six 18+ FanDuel point games in that stretch.

His .222 average and seven home run season totals are less enticing, but that’s what puts him in bargain territory.

Baez is batting .268 in June and gets a strong matchup on paper against fellow bargain option Keller of the Royals tonight.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Corbin Burnes ($10,600 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel) at Pittsburgh Pirates

Burnes leads the National League with 119 strikeouts on the season to complement his 6-4 record and 2.41 ERA.

In his last four starts, Burnes has an impressive +9.93 Plus/Minus and at least eight strikeouts in each outing. He has eight 25+ DraftKings point performances in his 15 starts.

The Pirates have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate, along with the third-lowest team batting average in the league. He will be a highly-owned stud on tonight’s slate.


Hitter

Kris Bryant ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Bryant returned to the lineup on Monday after a back strain kept him sidelined for over a month. The four-time All-Star and former MVP is still getting his feet wet in new surroundings in Colorado.

In 20 games this season, Bryant is batting .267 with zero home runs and four RBI. All that said, he remains one of the cheaper high-ceiling players in the game.

Bryant gets the Coors Field boost tonight with a 94 Park Rating. He faces right-hander Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks, who is 6-5 with a 3.64 ERA this season.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Yankees. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

Note: There is precipitation projected in the forecast for this game. Be sure to monitor the status of this game leading up to lock.

The Yankees travel to Cleveland tonight to start their weekend series. With the men in pinstripes off to a historically great start, their bats have shown plenty of stack potential, if you can fit in their salaries.

Aaron Judge is hammering the ball in 2022. He leads the majors with 29 home runs and 62 runs scored. He has the highest salary on the slate but is worth the start if you can afford him. Judge has three 20+ DraftKings point performances in his last nine games.

Among the league leaders with a .428 xwOBA and 53.8 hard-hit %, Giancarlo Stanton has a +2.65 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He needs to limit his strikeout numbers, but when he makes contact, the ball tends to go a long way.

In his second season in New York, former Cubs star Anthony Rizzo is taking the “Bronx Bombers” nickname to heart. He has already blasted 21 home runs and is on pace to crush his career-high of 32 home runs in a season.

Rounding out the stack are DJ LeMahieu and Josh Donaldson. LeMahieu is a consistent high floor, low ceiling option with a .262 average and low strikeout rate.

The 36-year-old Donaldson is the cheaper dart throw of the stack. He has not impressed this season but should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs batting behind his four potent teammates.

The Yankees have a plus matchup against Guardians right-hander Aaron Civale, who is 2-4 with a 7.20 ERA in nine starts this season. He has given up a high .379 wOBA and has allowed six earned runs in three different starts this season.