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MLB DFS Model Picks (Monday, Apr. 11): Patino gets the Athletics’ Value Boost

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

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Real-time DFS models

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Jeff McNeil ($3,200): Second Baseman/Outfielder, New York Mets

After a down year in 2021, McNeil impressed in New York’s opening series in Washington. In the four-game trip, he hit .467 with two multi-hit games and a stellar .531 wOBA.

If he continues to round back into his old form, his salary will only continue to rise. He is continuously among the leaders in K% and has a career .355 wOBA.

The Mets and Phillies have the highest projected run total on the slate. Ranger Suarez makes his season debut for the Phillies after an incredible 2021 where he finished 8-5 with a 1.36 ERA in 106 innings. The promising young lefty on the mound likely keeps McNeil’s ownership down, making him a tournament option for lineups with studs in other spots.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Adam Frazier ($2,400): Second Baseman, Seattle Mariners

An all-star in 2021, Frazier was traded this offseason to the Mariners after his best statistical year in the big leagues. Though he doesn’t hit for much power, the current price tag is tempting for a guy who hit .333 against righties with the Pirates before getting traded last season.

Frazier has two-straight +5.43 Plus/Minus performances against Minnesota in the last two days. Today, he gets a plus matchup against veteran right-hander Dylan Bundy. Bundy looks to rebound from a disappointing 2021 campaign where he finished 2-9 with a 6.06 ERA and .330 wOBA against.

Frazier’s game fits well with early-season weather challenges in Minnesota. He is a solid low-priced option to consider on the main slate.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Luis Patino ($7,800 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics

Patino gets the “playing against the Athletics” boost tonight in Tampa. He has both the highest Ceiling and Floor on the slate, which is not bad for the eighth-highest DraftKings salary.

In his third season, Patino has posted close to league-average xwOBA and K% in his 94.2 total innings. But this pick is more about the Athletics than about Patino.

The Athletics’ lineup doesn’t impress, and they have the lowest implied team total on the slate. They are near the bottom of the league in team batting average and OBP to start the season. Expect Patino to be a high-ownership value tonight.


Hitter

Byron Buxton ($5,900 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Mariners

With a league-leading three home runs, Buxton is off to a fast start in 2022. The often-injured Twins outfielder has not played a full season since 2017. When in the lineup, his bat has consistently added power throughout his career as his Exit Velocity has increased each season since 2018.

He will likely be a boom-or-bust option facing right-hander Chris Flexen. Flexen had a strong record last season, finishing 14-6, but has struggled in spring training with a 7.31 ERA in 16 innings. His career .344 wOBA could provide some opportunities for Buxton to continue his hot streak at the plate tonight.

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Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool comes from the Atlanta Braves. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

The Braves are off to a 2-2 start as they look to run it back for a repeat World Series Championship.

Matt Olson is on fire to start the season with a league-leading eight hits in four games. He is among the leaders in Plus/Minus and swatted .571 with a .664 wOBA in their opening series against the Reds.

Coming off a surprising Silver Slugger campaign in 2021, Austin Riley is picking up where he left off. Batting .385 to start the season, Riley is among league leaders with a .570 xwOBA and 5.9 K%.

On the other hand, Ozzie Albies has struggled to produce thus far, with just one hit on the year. His DraftKings salary has dipped from $5,500 on opening day to $4,800, which may be an overcorrection. Albies has the fourth-highest Ceiling on the slate and the 27th highest salary.

This stack rounds out with bargain outfielders Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall. Ozuna leads the slate in Projected Plus/Minus for the position, and Duvall is only four spots behind. Expect both to have high ownership as low-cost options to complete lineups.

The Nationals have a question mark on the mound with Anibal Sanchez dealing with neck stiffness. It appears Josh Rogers may get the start in his place. Rogers has thrown just 61.2 innings in his three-year career with a 5.55 ERA. The matchup looks even juicier for the Braves when you factor in Rogers’ elevated 42.9 HardHit% and low 12.0 K% in his career.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Jeff McNeil ($3,200): Second Baseman/Outfielder, New York Mets

After a down year in 2021, McNeil impressed in New York’s opening series in Washington. In the four-game trip, he hit .467 with two multi-hit games and a stellar .531 wOBA.

If he continues to round back into his old form, his salary will only continue to rise. He is continuously among the leaders in K% and has a career .355 wOBA.

The Mets and Phillies have the highest projected run total on the slate. Ranger Suarez makes his season debut for the Phillies after an incredible 2021 where he finished 8-5 with a 1.36 ERA in 106 innings. The promising young lefty on the mound likely keeps McNeil’s ownership down, making him a tournament option for lineups with studs in other spots.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Adam Frazier ($2,400): Second Baseman, Seattle Mariners

An all-star in 2021, Frazier was traded this offseason to the Mariners after his best statistical year in the big leagues. Though he doesn’t hit for much power, the current price tag is tempting for a guy who hit .333 against righties with the Pirates before getting traded last season.

Frazier has two-straight +5.43 Plus/Minus performances against Minnesota in the last two days. Today, he gets a plus matchup against veteran right-hander Dylan Bundy. Bundy looks to rebound from a disappointing 2021 campaign where he finished 2-9 with a 6.06 ERA and .330 wOBA against.

Frazier’s game fits well with early-season weather challenges in Minnesota. He is a solid low-priced option to consider on the main slate.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Luis Patino ($7,800 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics

Patino gets the “playing against the Athletics” boost tonight in Tampa. He has both the highest Ceiling and Floor on the slate, which is not bad for the eighth-highest DraftKings salary.

In his third season, Patino has posted close to league-average xwOBA and K% in his 94.2 total innings. But this pick is more about the Athletics than about Patino.

The Athletics’ lineup doesn’t impress, and they have the lowest implied team total on the slate. They are near the bottom of the league in team batting average and OBP to start the season. Expect Patino to be a high-ownership value tonight.


Hitter

Byron Buxton ($5,900 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Mariners

With a league-leading three home runs, Buxton is off to a fast start in 2022. The often-injured Twins outfielder has not played a full season since 2017. When in the lineup, his bat has consistently added power throughout his career as his Exit Velocity has increased each season since 2018.

He will likely be a boom-or-bust option facing right-hander Chris Flexen. Flexen had a strong record last season, finishing 14-6, but has struggled in spring training with a 7.31 ERA in 16 innings. His career .344 wOBA could provide some opportunities for Buxton to continue his hot streak at the plate tonight.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool comes from the Atlanta Braves. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

The Braves are off to a 2-2 start as they look to run it back for a repeat World Series Championship.

Matt Olson is on fire to start the season with a league-leading eight hits in four games. He is among the leaders in Plus/Minus and swatted .571 with a .664 wOBA in their opening series against the Reds.

Coming off a surprising Silver Slugger campaign in 2021, Austin Riley is picking up where he left off. Batting .385 to start the season, Riley is among league leaders with a .570 xwOBA and 5.9 K%.

On the other hand, Ozzie Albies has struggled to produce thus far, with just one hit on the year. His DraftKings salary has dipped from $5,500 on opening day to $4,800, which may be an overcorrection. Albies has the fourth-highest Ceiling on the slate and the 27th highest salary.

This stack rounds out with bargain outfielders Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall. Ozuna leads the slate in Projected Plus/Minus for the position, and Duvall is only four spots behind. Expect both to have high ownership as low-cost options to complete lineups.

The Nationals have a question mark on the mound with Anibal Sanchez dealing with neck stiffness. It appears Josh Rogers may get the start in his place. Rogers has thrown just 61.2 innings in his three-year career with a 5.55 ERA. The matchup looks even juicier for the Braves when you factor in Rogers’ elevated 42.9 HardHit% and low 12.0 K% in his career.