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MLB DFS Model Picks (Friday, Apr. 22): High Ceiling, Low Price for Ranger Suarez

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

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Real-time DFS models

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Adam Duvall ($2,400): Outfielder, Atlanta Braves

A hitless series will certainly put a damper on excitement about a player. Duvall will try to get back in the stat column tonight against Miami.

He has shown power over his career, finishing in the top 9% in max EV each of the last two seasons, according to Baseball Savant. His high K% makes him a boom or bust dart throw.

Duvall’s DraftKings salary has plunged this season from a high of $4,700 on April 8. He is near the top of the Projected Plus/Minus and Bargain Rating on the slate as a cheap tournament option for a rebound performance.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Franmil Reyes ($2,500): Outfielder, Cleveland Guardians

Another player who has seen their salary dip in the early going, Reyes has posted two straight positive Plus/Minus games, including a strong 25.20 FanDuel performance yesterday against the White Sox.

Reyes ranks near the league leaders in exit velocity and near the bottom in K%. He is much more effective against right-handed pitching, which should serve him well against the Yankees’ Jameson Taillon tonight.

Consider him a high-upside option for lineups featuring studs at other spots.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Ranger Suarez ($8,000 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Behind Justin Verlander, there are a few high-ceiling value plays on the slate. Suarez is outside the top-10 highest salaries but in the top-3 projected ceilings in both DraftKings and FanDuel scoring today.

The 26-year-old lefty had a breakout season with the Phillies in 2021, finishing 8-5 with a minuscule 1.36 ERA and .235 wOBA in 106 innings.

This season has been different thus far. He was hit hard in his season opener against the Mets, but bounced back with a quality outing against the Marlins last week.

He looks to return to 2021 form tonight against a Brewers team that ranks in the bottom third of the league in runs scored. Suarez could have a lot of scoring potential for the price.


Hitter

Jose Ramirez ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees

Ramirez has shown the ability to reach his ceiling on multiple occasions this season. He has three separate games with three-plus hits and a home run on the year.

The current league leader in RBI, hits, and batting average, Ramirez is off to an incredible start. As a switch hitter, he prefers right-handed pitching with a .101 wOBA difference and faces a righty tonight in New York’s Taillon.

Despite a relatively low implied run total for the Guardians, Ramirez is a top-end lineup play tonight in all formats.

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Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

This stack is anchored by perennial all-star Freddie Freeman. His recent hot streak includes three 20+ point DraftKings performances in his last four games, including two home runs over that span.

Trea Turner has cooled off a bit after a solid second week of the season. The NC State product has hit safely in all but two games this season and has a high ISO against right-handed pitching.

After those two, the stack is significantly less eye-catching with Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy. Turner leads the group with a .227 average this season and Muncy has the only home run. All three have shown production potential in their careers. Maybe this is night they get rolling in 2022.

The Dodgers will face journeyman right-hander Nick Martinez for San Diego. Before this season, Martinez last pitched in the major leagues in 2017 for the Rangers. In between, he moved to Japan and completely overhauled his pitching mechanics. He impressed in his first start but got tagged for three home runs and five earned runs on April 16 against the Braves.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Adam Duvall ($2,400): Outfielder, Atlanta Braves

A hitless series will certainly put a damper on excitement about a player. Duvall will try to get back in the stat column tonight against Miami.

He has shown power over his career, finishing in the top 9% in max EV each of the last two seasons, according to Baseball Savant. His high K% makes him a boom or bust dart throw.

Duvall’s DraftKings salary has plunged this season from a high of $4,700 on April 8. He is near the top of the Projected Plus/Minus and Bargain Rating on the slate as a cheap tournament option for a rebound performance.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Franmil Reyes ($2,500): Outfielder, Cleveland Guardians

Another player who has seen their salary dip in the early going, Reyes has posted two straight positive Plus/Minus games, including a strong 25.20 FanDuel performance yesterday against the White Sox.

Reyes ranks near the league leaders in exit velocity and near the bottom in K%. He is much more effective against right-handed pitching, which should serve him well against the Yankees’ Jameson Taillon tonight.

Consider him a high-upside option for lineups featuring studs at other spots.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Ranger Suarez ($8,000 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Behind Justin Verlander, there are a few high-ceiling value plays on the slate. Suarez is outside the top-10 highest salaries but in the top-3 projected ceilings in both DraftKings and FanDuel scoring today.

The 26-year-old lefty had a breakout season with the Phillies in 2021, finishing 8-5 with a minuscule 1.36 ERA and .235 wOBA in 106 innings.

This season has been different thus far. He was hit hard in his season opener against the Mets, but bounced back with a quality outing against the Marlins last week.

He looks to return to 2021 form tonight against a Brewers team that ranks in the bottom third of the league in runs scored. Suarez could have a lot of scoring potential for the price.


Hitter

Jose Ramirez ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees

Ramirez has shown the ability to reach his ceiling on multiple occasions this season. He has three separate games with three-plus hits and a home run on the year.

The current league leader in RBI, hits, and batting average, Ramirez is off to an incredible start. As a switch hitter, he prefers right-handed pitching with a .101 wOBA difference and faces a righty tonight in New York’s Taillon.

Despite a relatively low implied run total for the Guardians, Ramirez is a top-end lineup play tonight in all formats.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

This stack is anchored by perennial all-star Freddie Freeman. His recent hot streak includes three 20+ point DraftKings performances in his last four games, including two home runs over that span.

Trea Turner has cooled off a bit after a solid second week of the season. The NC State product has hit safely in all but two games this season and has a high ISO against right-handed pitching.

After those two, the stack is significantly less eye-catching with Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy. Turner leads the group with a .227 average this season and Muncy has the only home run. All three have shown production potential in their careers. Maybe this is night they get rolling in 2022.

The Dodgers will face journeyman right-hander Nick Martinez for San Diego. Before this season, Martinez last pitched in the major leagues in 2017 for the Rangers. In between, he moved to Japan and completely overhauled his pitching mechanics. He impressed in his first start but got tagged for three home runs and five earned runs on April 16 against the Braves.