The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Nolan Schanuel ($2,800): First Base, Los Angeles Angels
As we are seeing, hitting in front of Shohei Ohtani has a unique set of advantages. Just a few days ago, Nolan Schanuel made his Major League debut. The 21-year-old is off to a good start and poised for a breakout performance against Brett Kennedy and the Cincinnati Reds.
Shanuel has recorded a hit in all four appearances, but most impressively, the Los Angeles Angels have deployed him in the leadoff spot each time out. Getting on base ahead of Ohtani has positively impacted Schanuel’s run production, as the first baseman has totaled four runs, scoring in all but one of his outings. Likewise, there are positives analytically. Schanuel is operating below his expected slugging percentage and is delivering a 46.2% sweet spot rating, implying more fireworks are on the horizon.
The left-handed batting rookie has the added advantage of swinging against the Reds righty. Kennedy pitches to contact and gets barreled hard, particularly versus lefties. Schanuel’s hot start continues Wednesday, and he is our Projected Plus/Minus leader.
Dominic Smith ($2,700): First Base, Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals are quietly taking care of business. The NL East basement dwellers are 8-2 over their last ten, getting production throughout their lineup. Although Dominic Smith isn’t having a banner year, we’re expecting a more robust fantasy performance from him on Wednesday against the New York Yankees.
Even though he’s been inconsistent, there’s a lot to like about Smith this year. The former first-round pick remains one of the most disciplined hitters in the bigs. Smith ranks in the 88th percentile in strikeout rate, coming in a few points below that in whiff percentage. Moreover, his actual slugging percentage is below expected, suggesting Smith is a progression candidate to end the year.
Momentum should start building for Smith against the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers are trotting Luis Severino out to the mound for what could only be another disappointing performance. Severino has poor analytics and serves up taters at Yankees Stadium. There’s a substantive edge in rostering Smith for tonight’s interleague showdown.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Kevin Gausman ($10,600 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Toronto Blue Jays need Kevin Gausman now more than ever. Thankfully, he’s expected to deliver. The Jays have fallen outside the American League playoff picture and are in the midst of a three-game set against the Baltimore Orioles. Gausman should further their chances with a strong showing against a division rival.
The hard-throwing righty has been superb for the Blue Jays this season. Gausman leads the starting rotation in ERA and strikeouts while ranking second in wins and third in innings pitched. More importantly, we’ve pegged Gausman for more wins after a tough-luck stretch through July and August.
Despite putting together a string of above-average performances, Gausman is just 2-3 since the start of July. Over that stretch, he’s tossed three quality starts and limited opponents to three or fewer earned runs in all but two of his seven starts.
Gausman has maintained his solid form on the mound, with some of the best strikeout metrics in the game, but has fallen behind in wins. That puts him on an inevitable trajectory upward as wins start to fall into place for the tough-luck starter. According to our models, that begins tonight against the O’s, with Gausman leading our median and ceiling projections.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
After an underwhelming stretch, the Yankees are all but eliminated from postseason contention. Still, there’s pride on the line for the once-proud franchise. Reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge has maintained his sterling analytics and is expected to produce Wednesday against the Nats.
Judge’s profile continues to read like an MVP resume. The Yankees slugger ranks in the 100th percentile in virtually every analytics category, including barrel rate, expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, walk percentage, and average exit velocity.
Those metrics have been shining through more recently. Four of Judge’s last eight hits have left the park, highlighting his unrelenting home run power. Still, his .607 slugging percentage is over 130 points off expected, meaning Judge’s best plate appearances are ahead of him.
Our PlateIQ model reveals a similar advantage in rostering Judge tonight. The hard-hitting outfielder has above-average ISO and wOBA ratings, playing into his fantasy appeal. We’re betting Judge’s onslaught continues as he reaches his fantasy ceiling at home.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Charlie Morton ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets
Charlie Morton may have fallen out of the Cy Young conversation over the past few seasons, but that hasn’t stopped him from compiling top-tier fantasy performances. Morton has exceeded 17.0 (DraftKings)/33.0 (FanDuel) fantasy points in three of his last four outings, illustrating his ongoing fantasy production.
More impressively, Morton enters tonight’s NL East battle against the New York Mets on an 11.0 scoreless innings streak. The big righty has given up just seven hits over that stretch, striking out 14. He could set the bar even higher in this intra-divisional showdown. The Mets have abandoned their usually disciplined approach at the plate, accumulating the ninth-most strikeouts over the past week.
Morotn’s strikeout stuff remains second to none. His 31.7% whiff rate puts him among the top 12% of MLB pitchers, and he still has one of the most devastating curveball/fastball combinations in the bigs. Morton’s salary has come down lately, but not his fantasy appeal.
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Hitters
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
You wouldn’t know it from his diminished traditional stats, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still one of the best hitters in the game. Vladdy Jr.’s OPS is the worst it’s been since his rookie season; however, his analytics continue to support that few players can do what Guerrero does.
Vladdy Jr. has been one of the most unlucky hitters in the MLB. He rates in the 90th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 94th percentile in expected weighted on-base average, but his actual metrics are way off those benchmarks. Guerror’s actual slugging percentage is 75 below expected, while his OBP is nearly 40 points off.
This is where the advantage lies. Predictably, the decreased on-base and slugging percentages have resulted in his fantasy salary bottoming out. Vladdy Jr.’s salary is the lowest it has ever been, making him the perfect buy-low candidate. Keep an eye on the Jays slugger over the final month of the season as Guerrero helps Toronto with its push for the playoffs.
Michael Harris II ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets
With all the firepower the Braves have, it’s easy to lose sight of everything they have to offer. One of the most underappreciated components of their roster is Michael Harris II, who hasn’t missed a beat in his second major league season.
Harris II sits in the upper echelon of MLB hitters. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year ranks in the 70th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, and xwOBA, topping out in the 93rd percentile in expected batting average. He’s reserved his best efforts for the latter part of the year, with Harris II accumulating a .481 slugging percentage in August, including five doubles, a triple, and two long fly balls.
As expected, the improved performance at the plate has positively impacted run production. Harris II has scored 15 times and driven in 11, putting him on pace for his most productive month yet. We’re anticipating that trend will continue in tonight’s contest against the Mets.
