The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tarik Skubal ($12,000) Detroit Tigers (-330) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cy Young frontrunners from both leagues are taking the mound in Detroit today—but unfortunately in opposite games of a doubleheader. That means no Paul Skenes on the early slate, but we do have the Tigers Tarik Skubal.
His $12,000 salary is the highest we’ve seen in a long time, but it’s hard to argue that he’s overpriced. Skubal is averaging over 26 DraftKings points per game this season, with a sub-2.00 ERA and 32.7% strikeout rate. His median and ceiling projection both lead the slate by a massive margin, and he’s second in Pts/Sal despite his high price tag.
That’s despite projecting him for slightly below his season average score. There’s obviously upside for way more than that against the Pirates, who rank 29th in wRC+ against lefties while striking out at the third highest rate. Skubal already has two 40-point games this season, with a solid shot at another one tonight.
We’re also projecting fairly low ownership on Skubal, thanks to his massive salary. The only reason I can see to fade Skubal is the weather, which has the potential to cause both a late start and a mid-game delay. The latter would be problematic for Skubal, since a delay usually means an early end to the day for the starter. Keep an eye on our free MLB DFS Weather Report as we approach lock.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Trevor Williams ($5,700) Washington Nationals (-154) vs. Colorado Rockies
Williams is the only pitcher on the slate to top Skubal in Pts/Sal projection, and his extremely cheap price tag makes him a nice stacking option with the Tigers’ ace.
This is a classic example of bad pitching against bad hitting, with Williams coming into the game with an ugly 5.71 ERA. He’s taking on the Rockies, though, the worst offense in baseball (both overall and against right-handed pitching). Colorado also strikes out at a fairly high rate, so even a low strikeout pitcher like Williams could pick up a few.
The Rockies have arrived at those stats despite playing in the best hitter’s park in baseball, so we can give them a further downgrade on the road in Washington. Plus, Williams is due for some positive regression, with his ERA indicators in the high threes to low fours. Still not great numbers, but more than good enough at his price tag.
The biggest reason to roster Williams is that he makes it possible to get up to Skubal, but he has a reasonable shot at a solid score himself.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Carlos Rodon ($10,700) New York Yankees (-280) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Our current ownership projections have Rodon as the chalk option over Skubal tonight, so we could easily switch these two players. However, my guess is that a clean weather report in Detroit would cause those to switch. Either way, Rodon has massive upside tonight against the Angels.
Los Angeles strikes out at the highest rate in the majors against both left- and right-handed pitching, but that mark goes even higher against southpaws. Their 28.1% strikeout rate against lefties accompanies a 69 wRC+, both awful numbers.
While Rodon isn’t Skubal, his 3.01 ERA and 30% strikeout rate are both excellent, and he also has a somewhat better matchup. Crucially, he’s also $1,300 cheaper, which could go a long way on this slate.
It’s also theoretically possible but very difficult to roster both Skubal and Rodon, but that could be a very unique way to build tonight. I’ll be throwing out a couple of lineups with that pairing, as they could break the slate if they both live up to their projections and some cheap hitters come through.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Yankees:
Not that there are cheap bats to be found in our top stack of the day, Rodon’s Yankees. They are coming at a slight discount relative to their usual price tags, thanks to the collective hitting slump they’re on as a team.
New York has scored just two total runs across their last four games, three of those in the current series against the Angels. That’s concerning given the (lack of) quality of the Angels’ pitching staff. However, they’re still second in baseball in wRC+ overall and against left-handed pitching.
They draw a lefty today in Tyler Anderson ($6,300), who has a mediocre 4.44 ERA on the season. That, plus the excellent hitting weather, goes a long way to explaining the Yankees 6.1-run implied total. While this stack isn’t cheap overall, it’s fairly affordable relative to their team total.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jahmai Jones OF ($2,200) Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Andrew Heaney)
I mentioned above needing some very cheap hitters to unlock the Skubal + Rodon pitching pair, and it doesn’t get much cheaper than Jones. It’s an extremely small sample size for Jones, but the journeyman has a .412 batting average with two home runs through nine games for Detroit this season.
Plus, he does his best work against lefties, as we can see in PlateIQ:
Take those numbers with a grain of salt, since 39 plate appearances over two seasons doesn’t tell us much. Still, we could do a lot worse at $2,200, especially for a guy expected to bat second in the Detroit lineup.
Travis d’Arnaud C ($2,700) Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees (Carlos Rodon)
If Rodon does end up as the chalk at pitcher, you could gain a lot of leverage in your lineups by rostering hitters against him. As we discussed above, the Angels don’t give us many options for bats against lefties — but one player stands out.
That’s d’Arnaud, who has a .314 average against left-handed pitching this season and a .268 mark in his career. He’s also extremely cheap and plays a tough position, so we don’t need a ton of production for him to be a good play.
Brendan Donovan 2B ($4,000) St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox (Sean Burke)
We have solid hitting weather in basically every game on the early slate, but the best is in the Windy City. According to Weather Edge, we’ve got a 25% boost to home runs and 15% boost to overall scoring at Rate Field tonight.
That’s good news for the visiting Cardinals, who have a solid 4.7-run implied total. Donovan stands out as a reasonably priced leadoff hitter, but the whole offense is in play.
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Pictured: Tarik Skubal
Photo Credit: Getty Images
