The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($10,700) Atlanta Braves (-186) vs. New York Mets
We have some fun decisions to make tonight at pitcher, as we have some very solid starting pitchers who all have relatively difficult matchups at hand. The best among those is Sale, who has a 2.79 ERA and a top-five strikeout rate in the majors, which has translated into a bit over 21 DraftKings points per game on average.
He’s also taking on the top-five offense of the Mets, and this game is in Atlanta, not New York. Citi Field helps mitigate the challenge of facing New York since it cuts scoring by about 8%, whereas Truist Park in Atlanta is a roughly neutral field.
On the plus side, the Mets are on the wrong side of their platoon splits against the southpaw Sale. Their 107 wRC+ against lefties isn’t much above average, which probably explains their slate-low 3.7-run implied total.
There’s a bit of risk in rostering Sale tonight, especially at his price tag. However, he’s a strong option overall, and he leads the slate in both median and ceiling projections.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Logan Allen ($6,000) Cleveland Guardians (+115) at San Francisco Giants
Conversely, we have some cheaper pitchers who are standing out because of their matchups tonight, with the Pts/Sal lead going to Logan Allen of the Guardians.
He’s not normally a pitcher we love for DFS, with a 4.28 ERA and just a 17% strikeout rate. However, the Giants have struggled against lefties this season, with a top-ten strikeout rate and just a 79 wRC+. That means they hit lefties about 20% worse than average, which is a considerable boost to Allen.
Those numbers were arrived at without new acquisition Rafael Devers ($5,200), of course. However, with Devers batting left-handed, he’ll be a bigger boost to the Giants’ numbers against righties than lefties.
Plus, this game is in San Francisco, one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. All of that should help Allen limit runs here, making him a solid cash game pick. He probably doesn’t have the upside needed for GPPs, but he’s cheap enough to not kill your lineups either.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Ryan Yarborough ($6,500) New York Yankees (-225) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Both Yankees starters in this series against the Angels have topped 20 DraftKings points, and that’s without picking up a win bonus. The Yankees have been shut out in consecutive games, but had they provided any run support, we would’ve had some massive DFS days from their starters.
That mostly comes down to the matchup with the Angels, who strike out at the highest rate in baseball. Their 28.8% mark against lefties is even higher than their overall figure, which is especially good news for Yarborough tonight.
He’s a high-risk, high-reward option tonight. Not because he gives up too many runs — he has an ERA just under 4.00. The sometimes-starter is averaging just under five innings per outing since moving from the bullpen, which makes it hard to put up big DFS scores.
However, he’s gone at least six innings in two of his last four starts, including once against these Angels. That was good for more than 27 DraftKings points, which would be huge at his price tag. With his ownership projecting below 10%, he’s an elite DFS option.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Yankees:
Our models like the Yankees to break out of their slump tonight, as do the betting markets. New York is implied for 5.8 runs, the highest mark on the slate. Much of that comes down to the matchup, as they’re facing Jack Kochanowicz ($5,500) of the Angels.
Kochanowicz has a 5.53 ERA and similar underlying numbers on the season, and the Yankees have been one of baseball’s best lineups this season. Rostering their pitcher Yarborough frees up enough space to afford them while also building in some correlation between the Yankees hitters and Yarborough picking up the win bonus.
Those four points are much more impactful proportionally at Yarborough’s salary
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Bobby Witt Jr. SS ($5,400) Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers (Patrick Corbin)
It’s been quite the bounce-back year for the much-maligned Patrick Corbin ($7,500), who has a 3.66 ERA after four consecutive seasons on the wrong side of 5.00. However, there are some concerning signs. His 17.9% strikeout rate is well below average, and he has a very unsustainable .260 BABIP against.
I’m looking to bet on some regression for Corbin tonight against the Royals. Their best player against lefties (and overall) is Witt, who stands out in PlateIQ:
It’s difficult but not impossible to fit him around Yankees stacks, but he has massive upside tonight.
Xander Bogaerts SS ($3,100) San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (Emmett Sheehan)
It’s been a down year, to say the least for Bogaerts, who has a .227 batting average and just three home runs on the season. To his credit, his 13 steals provide some upside, but it’s still not what we’ve come to expect from him.
However, he’s had some bad luck. His .266 BABIP is about 60 points below his career average, and his steals indicate he’s not gotten any slower. Plus, his 4.1% HR/FB ratio is a career low by a wide margin, despite his hard-hit rate being slightly higher than his career mark.
He’s due for a breakout, and tonight against the Dodgers debutante Emmett Sheehan ($6,900). Sheehan has a 4.82 ERA in AAA this season. He’s probably serving as an opener for Justin Wrobleski ($6,500), who has an ERA over six in the majors.
Either way, it’s a good matchup for Bogaerts, plus an upgrade in Park Factor going north from San Diego tonight.
Yainer Diaz C ($3,600) Houston Astros at Athletics (Luis Severino)
The Astros exploded for 13 runs last night in Sacramento, and conditions are arguably even better tonight. The A’s temporary ballpark is almost as good as Coors Field for run production, plus we have game-time temperatures in the 90s with wind blowing out.
The best bang for your buck option on the Astros is Diaz. He’s the cleanup hitter in Houston’s lineup, which makes him a solid value considering their 5.4-run total. Plus, he plays a position where points are typically hard to come by.
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Pictured: Chris Sale
Photo Credit: Getty Images
