The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert ($9,500) Seattle Mariners (-180) vs. Kansas City Royals
Gilbert is a very tough pitcher to handicap at the moment. He’s a phenomenal pitcher, and he got off to an outstanding start this season. He pitched to a 2.37 ERA through his first six starts before unfortunately being shut down with an injury.
Gilbert has not looked like the same pitcher since returning to the lineup. He’s pitched to a 5.87 ERA across his past three starts, and he’s allowed four earned runs in each of his past two. That’s caused his salary to dip to $9,500 for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Royals.
However, Gilbert is still an extremely talented pitcher, and he has a lot working in his favor in this matchup. For starters, he’ll get to pitch in Seattle after pitching on the road in his past two starts. T-Mobile Park is the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball per Statcast Park Factors, so that’s a massive upgrade. The last time we saw Gilbert in Seattle, he struck out 10 batters and allowed two earned runs in five innings against the Red Sox.
The matchup vs. the Royals is also solid. Kansas City doesn’t strike out often – which does limit Gilbert’s upside – but they struggle to put runs on the scoreboard. They’re currently implied for just 3.1 runs, which is the lowest mark by a pretty wide margin. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.42 (per the Trends tool).
Add in a lower price tag than usual, and this is a clear buy-low spot for Gilbert. He ranks first in projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT X, and he also has the top median and ceiling projections by a comfortable margin.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Clayton Kershaw ($8,000) Los Angeles Dodgers (-325) vs. Chicago White Sox
It’s pretty tough to look past the Dodgers when they’re playing the White Sox. You don’t get mismatches much bigger from an MLB standpoint, so whoever is on the bump for Los Angeles is going to have massive win expectancy.
Kershaw will get that designation on Wednesday. He’s not the same pitcher that he was in his prime, but he’s still been really effective of late. After a rocky first start, Kershaw has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven outings. He’s allowed one or zero earned runs in five of them, and his ERA in five June starts ultimately checked in at 2.28.
He should be able to keep things rolling vs. the White Sox. Kershaw is a massive -325 favorite, and Chicago is implied for just 3.4 runs. They also have the second-highest strikeout rate against southpaws, so Kershaw brings a bit more upside to the table than usual.
Some of Kershaw’s advanced metrics suggest room for regression, but this isn’t the matchup where you need to worry about it. No pitcher is more likely to earn a win on Wednesday, making him a solid value at just $8,000.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Hunter Brown ($10,300) Houston Astros (-264) at Colorado Rockies
If not for the location, Brown would be in consideration for the top pitching spot on this slate. He’s been an absolute monster on the bump this season, posting a 1.74 ERA with fantastic strikeout and batted-ball metrics. The Rockies are also an elite matchup, even with this game being in Coors Field. They’re 28th in wRC+ when facing a right-hander at home, and they have the second-highest strikeout rate in that split. Brown’s floor is ultimately lower than usual, but his ceiling is pretty much unchanged. He’s projected for far less ownership than Gilbert, making him an interesting pivot for tournaments.
Brayan Bello ($6,400) Boston Red Sox (-128) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bello has plenty of natural ability, and he draws a solid matchup Wednesday vs. the Reds. Cincinnati plays its home games in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball, so they tend to struggle when they go on the road. Fenway Park doesn’t represent a huge downgrade from a Park Factor standpoint, but it’s enough to make Bello intriguing at a very low price tag. He’s also pitched pretty well of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four outings. He ultimately trails only Gilbert in terms of projected Plus/Minus per THE BAT X, so he’s a viable SP2 for those looking to load up on bats.
Shota Imanaga ($8,500) Chicago Cubs (-162) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Imanaga made his return to the lineup last week and was pretty much perfect. He allowed just one walk and one hit across five scoreless innings, dropping his ERA to 2.54 across nine starts. The Cubs were careful with his pitch count in his first game back, but his leash should be a bit longer on Wednesday. He’s not going to pile up the strikeouts, but he’s simply a more talented pitcher than his current salary suggests. He posted a +4.22 Plus/Minus in his last outing despite throwing less than 80 pitches, and he was priced at $9,000 for that contest.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using THE BAT X belongs to the Houston Astros:
No real surprises here. The Astros are playing their second consecutive game at Coors Field, and they lead the slate with a 6.6 implied run total. Houston was slightly disappointing on Tuesday, but they did manage to get six runs off Chase Dollander in the first three innings. The Rockies’ bullpen shut them down after that, but putting that kind of workload on their relievers could pay dividends as the series progresses.
The best part about this stack is the price tag. Stacking the top of a lineup in Coors Field can occasionally run you upwards of $27-28k, but the top Astros’ stack costs just $22,700. Three of the five hitters will run you $4,400 or less, so they are extremely affordable on a slate with plenty of pitching value.
They’ll square off with southpaw Austin Gomber, who has pitched to a 6.95 xERA so far this season. He’s been absolutely blasted in his two starts at Coors Field, surrendering 10 earned runs and three homers in just 9.2 innings pitched. The Astros are expected to roll out nine right-handed or switch-hitting batters, so they’ll all have the splits advantage in this matchup.
The only downside is the projected ownership. Seven of the top eight hitters in terms of projected ownership play for the Astros, so you’re going to need to be cognizant of that when filling out the rest of your lineup. Specifically, pairing the Astros with Gilbert will be extremely chalky, so you’ll need to go with a few off-the-board plays to ensure a unique lineup.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Corey Seager, SS ($3,800) Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles (Tomoyuki Sugano)
This is an egregiously low price tag for a hitter of Seager’s caliber, especially with how he’s been swinging the bat recently. He got off to a slow start this season, but his advanced metrics suggested he was more unlucky than bad. He’s unsurprisingly turned things around recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games.
Seager has had at least 16.0 DraftKings points in five of those contests, and he draws an exploitable matchup vs. Tomoyuki Sugano on Wednesday. Sugano owns an xERA over 5.50 this season, and Seager will have the splits advantage as a left-handed batter. Expect the positive regression to continue. He owns the top projected Plus/Minus among the non-Astros’ hitters in our blended projection set.
Marcel Ozuna, OF ($4,000) Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels (Yusei Kikuchi)
The Braves are an intriguing team on Wednesday’s slate. They have a tough matchup vs. Yusei Kikuchi on paper, who has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA this season. However, his advanced metrics are much less impressive, and the Braves’ projected lineup still has plenty of firepower. Vegas is giving them a lot of credit in this matchup, with an implied run total greater than 5.0.
Ozuna is one of their most dangerous hitters. His numbers are down this season, but he owns a career 125 wRC+ against southpaws. He’s priced affordably at $4,000, and he has plenty of upside.
Teoscar Hernandez ($4,500) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox (Brandon Eisert)
The White Sox are expected to deploy a left-handed opener on Wednesday. There’s no guarantee that he makes it to Hernandez’s spot in the lineup, but if the Dodgers are smart, they’ll move him up in the lineup to ensure at least one at-bat against him. That’s how good Hernandez’s numbers are against southpaws this season (via Plate IQ):
Once Eisert departs, Sean Burke is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings for Chicago. While he throws from the right side, Hernandez still has plenty of appeal in that matchup. Burke has struggled to a 5.26 xERA for the year, so Hernandez and the Dodgers can certainly do some damage in this spot.
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Pictured: Logan Gilbert
Photo Credit: Getty Images
