The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
George Kirby ($9,900) Seattle Mariners (-260) vs. Chicago White Sox
The awful lineup of the White Sox playing a road series in Seattle, which has the best Park Factor for pitchers in the majors, will naturally create some solid opportunities to roster pitchers against them. Yesterday Bryan Woo put up 34.55 DraftKings points in seven innings of one-run ball; this time it’s George Kirby’s turn.
Like much of the Mariners staff, Kirby has fairly extreme home/road splits on the season. His ERA away from Seattle is 4.96, but it dips to 3.43 during home games. I’m unlikely to roster him when he’s on the road, but his struggles there also lead to him being lower priced than he would otherwise.
Like Woo, he has a middling 25% or so strikeout rate, but the real appeal is a long(ish) outing with limited runs. That seems fairly likely based on the Vegas odds, which make the Mariners heavy favorites and give Chicago a slate-low 2.9-run total.
The evening slate on Wednesday is just five games, so we’re likely to see massive ownership on Kirby. He stands far enough above the field that it’s probably worth eating that chalk, though. His median and ceiling projections are a tick above any other arm on the slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jeffrey Springs ($6,800) Athletics (-130) at Washington Nationals
Athletics’ pitchers have the inverse situation as Mariners’ starters, thanks to their (temporary) home ballpark boosting offense more than any stadium outside of Coors Field. That Springs has been able to maintain a 3.99 ERA at home this season is particularly impressive and good news for him on the road in Washington tonight.
He also gets a solid matchup against the last-place Nationals. As a team this season, they have an 87 wRC+ and a relatively high strikeout rate against lefties. They also shipped out two of their better hitters at the trade deadline in righties Amed Rosario and Alex Call, leaving them with a lefty-heavy lineup against the southpaw Springs.
With Washington giving up on the season, this matchup is considerably better than it appears to be on paper, and Springs is exceedingly cheap. He’s the leader in Pts/Sal projection and a strong salary-saving option in all contest types.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Spencer Strider ($9,600) Atlanta Braves (-135) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Is Spencer Strider all the way back? After missing most of 2024 and the first month or so of this season, Strider now has a 3.71 ERA through 14 starts, with a strikeout rate approaching 30%. Those numbers are a step down from his peak in 2022 and 2023 but are largely due to some bad starts in his return to action earlier in the year.
He’s averaged more than 20 DraftKings points per game across his last four starts, with a double-digit strikeout performance in one of those games. His stuff seems to be returning to pre-injury form, which would make him extremely underpriced if he can regain those numbers.
It’s not the best matchup tonight against the Brewers, a slightly above-average team against righties in terms of both strikeout rate and wRC+. That makes the case for Strider slightly thinner, but he’s a solid alternative to Kirby at a cheaper price.
They’re showing similar ownership projections this morning, but if one or the other catches more steam, the lesser-owned option would probably be the better tournament play.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Diego Padres:
With the Coors Field game on the early slate, the stacking options in the evening are less obvious today. The best team total belongs to the Padres at 5.3 runs, as they travel to Arizona.
The location of this game is an important detail, since it shifts the Park Factor up about ten percent for hitters. San Diego’s offensive output is typically limited by their home ballpark, which trails only Seattle in terms of run suppression.
Plus, they have a strong matchup against Anthony DeScalfani ($5,500), a journeyman righty who has spent most of 2025 in the bullpen. He has an ERA just under 5.00 on the year, but that number jumps to more than 11 in his two starts.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Sean Murphy C ($3,300) Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Jose Quintana)
Braves catcher Sean Murphy is a high-variance bat, with an above-average wRC+ mark despite hitting just .220 on the season. That effect is even more pronounced when taking on lefties, against whom his average goes down but his OPS goes up.
Still, all things considered, that works out to solid production, and he stands out in PlateIQ:
His high-variance profile makes him ideal for GPPs, with a reasonable salary at a thin position on Wednesday evening’s slate.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,900) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres (Nestor Cortes)
In his ten-year career, Ketel Marte has hit left-handed pitching much better than righties. He has a .305 average and .894 OPS against southpaws, both considerably better than his numbers against righties.
Which makes it all the more curious that those numbers have flipped in 2025. This year, he’s done better work against righties, though he’s still been a slightly above-average hitter against lefties.
I’m going to bet on the larger sample size of his career over his numbers this season, as he faces Padres lefty Nestor Cortes ($6,900) tonight. It’s a solid matchup for Marte overall, and he has the second-best median and ceiling projections on the slate.
Bobby Witt SS ($5,900) Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox (Dustin May)
The best projections for any hitter belong to the Royals’ superstar shortstop Bobby Witt. While Witt his having a slightly down year by his standards, that says more about his standards than his 2025 stat line. He’s still hitting .287 with 16 home runs and 29 steals, providing major upside with both his bat and legs.
He’s got a winnable matchup against Boston’s Dustin May ($7,200), who had a 4.85 ERA for the Dodgers this season and now gets a much tougher home ballpark. Witt is a great play if you can find the salary.
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Pictured: George Kirby
Photo Credit: Imagn
