The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Hunter Brown ($10,000) Houston Astros (-173) vs. Boston Red Sox
Hunter Brown is a relatively obvious top option on Wednesday. It’s a smaller six-game slate, and Brown has been one of the American League’s best pitchers this season. He comes into this one with a 2.53 ERA and 30% strikeout rate, while averaging just under six innings per start.
We’re also getting a discount on his price tag, thanks to a down performance in his last start (by his standards) against the Yankees. Brown struck out five and allowed two runs through 5.1 innings, good for just 15 DraftKings points.
The Yankees are a top-five team against right-handed pitching, with a wRC+ 12 points higher than the Red Sox, who also strike out at a higher rate. Brown topped 22 DK points against Boston two starts ago — at a price tag of $10,500.
While he isn’t cheap by any stretch, he provides solid value and has the best Vegas Data on the slate, making him an easy choice in all contest types. He holds a comfortable lead in median and ceiling projections.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Cam Schlittler ($7,000) New York Yankees (-156) vs. Minnesota Twins
Trustworthy value is a bit hard to come by on Wednesday’s slate, which makes sense given that it’s on the smaller side. The second-best option in Pts/Sal projection is Schlittler, the Yankees rookie making his sixth big league start today.
Through his first five starts he’s been serviceable, with a 4.38 ERA and a strikeout rate in the low 20s. It’s reasonable to expect some improvement as he settles into life in the big leagues, especially considering his dominant numbers in AAA this season.
More importantly, he’s taking on a Twins team that let two of their best hitters go at the trade deadline, turning what was a below-average offense into a truly bad one. They’ve scored just three runs in the first two games of their series with the Yankees and are implied for 3.9 tonight, the second lowest on the slate.
Schlittler probably won’t break the slate, but he’s a reasonably safe option to save some salary.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Justin Wrobleski ($6,700) Los Angeles Dodgers (-210) at Los Angeles Angels
Wrobleski is projecting ahead of Schlittler for the Pts/Sal lead, but he’s a much higher variance option. The Dodgers lefty is expected to serve as the long reliever following a start/open from Shoehei Ohtani tonight, a role that could involve four or five innings of work or just a couple, depending on how the game goes and how long Ohtani lasts.
LA has been ramping up Ohtani’s starts, with the two-way player throwing a season-high four innings in his last appearance. Wrobleski appeared in relief in that contest but only got three innings before the back of the bullpen came in to preserve a one-run lead.
It would be hard for Wrobleski to pay off his salary in just three innings, though if Ohtani is pulled short of five, Wrobleski could be eligible for a win bonus. Those four points are fairly significant at his price tag and should be considered as part of the conversation.
Plus, if the Dodgers decide to ease off Ohtani or have a big enough lead to let Wrbleski finish the game, he’s more than capable of longer outings. He’s topped five innings in five of his 12 appearances this season, giving him a lot of upside if things break his way.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Mets:
The Mets trail only the Dodgers with their 5.4-run implied total and are just narrowly behind the far more expensive Dodgers stack.
That makes them a pretty clear top choice tonight, with a strong matchup against Carlos Carrasco ($5,500) and the Braves. Carrasco is a shell of his former self, and the Braves purchased his contract from the Yankees in July as a stopgap method to shore up a depleted rotation.
On top of the elite matchup, the Mets are a top-five team against righties in wRC+ and have extremely friendly hitting weather, so there’s no real holes to poke outside of the lofty salaries.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Sean Murphy C ($3,400) Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (David Peterson)
Murphy is always in consideration against left-handed pitching, thanks to his absurd power numbers against southpaws. The Braves catcher doesn’t hit for average against any pitchers, but against lefties he more than makes up for it with extra-base hits.
He’s slugging .547 with an .898 OPS against left-handed pitching, both about .200 points higher than his numbers against righties. You can see how that impacts his ISO in PlateIQ:
His inability to hit for average makes him a GPP-only option, but he’s a potential slate breaker at a cheap salary for tournaments.
Mookie Betts SS ($4,700) Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels (Kyle Hendricks)
It continues to be a down year, at least by his lofty standards, for Mookie Betts. He’s hitting just .242, with the first below-average wRC+ mark of his 12-season MLB career.
However, he’s still Mookie Betts. There’s reason to believe he’s been fairly unlucky, with his xwOBA significantly higher than his wOBA, his BABIP 50 points below his career average, and his HR/FB ratio about half his career mark.
With the Dodgers implied for the highest total on the slate, Betts is a cheapish way to get some exposure to the top of their lineup. Coupled with some potential positive regression, that’s a good enough reason to have him in some of your lineups. He’s the highest-rated hitter in our tournament model.
Carlos Correa 3B ($3,900) Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox (Walker Buehler)
In 11 games since being traded back to the Astros, Carlos Correa is hitting .364 with a .974 OPS. Evidently it’s good to be back in Houston for their former superstar, whose numbers in Minnesota never reached those heights.
He’s still priced for his numbers with the Twins and also gets an excellent matchup against the Red Sox Walker Buehler ($6,000) on Wednesday. Buehler has a 5.40 ERA and similar underlying numbers, so I’m interested in stacking the Astros in general but playing Correa specifically.
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Pictured: Hunter Brown
Photo Credit: Getty Images
