The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryan Woo ($9,500) Seattle Mariners (-176) vs. Boston Red Sox
Logan Gilbert of the Mariners was our Stud Pick yesterday and he delivered, putting up 24 DraftKings points without a win bonus, as his Mariners were shut out. If he was able to get some run support, it could’ve been an even bigger game.
We’re going back to that well today with Woo, who also gets the opportunity to face a greatly diminished Red Sox lineup that’s without Rafael Devers (traded) and Alex Bregman (injured), two of their best hitters. Woo is no Gilbert, but he has a 3.39 ERA and a 22.1% strikeout rate on the season.
Given his price tag, we’d obviously prefer a bit more strikeout upside. On the plus side, he’s averaging over six innings per start this season, so he can get there with longevity even if he isn’t missing a ton of bats.
On top of that, it’s a relatively weak pitching slate despite having 12 games, so it’s hard to do much better than Woo. He leads the slate in median and ceiling projection while checking in second in Pts/Sal.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Will Warren ($7,500) New York Yankees (-260) vs. Los Angeles Angels
This is another repeat spot from yesterday, after Clarke Schmidt blanked the Angels over 7.2 innings and put up 20 DraftKings points, also without a win bonus. The Yankees were surprisingly shut out yesterday, but as arguably the top offense in baseball, that’s unlikely to happen again.
They’re heavy favorites tonight, and with Warren’s fairly cheap salary, the four-point win bonus would go a long way. Warren is a somewhat high-variance option, with a 4.86 ERA this season but a 28.6% strikeout rate. That lines up nicely with the matchup he has, since the Angels strike out at the highest rate in the majors.
They’re not a terrible offense overall, but with a 3.6-run implied total, the market is suggesting that Warren is a relatively safe pick. Given his massive upside relative to his price, he’s an excellent option in all contest types.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Robbie Ray ($10,300) San Francisco Giants (-158) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Ray is the somewhat obvious GPP pivot from Woo tonight. He has a better opponent total, higher K prediction, and virtually identical overall projection — but is projecting for somewhat lower ownership.
That’s a function of the $800 salary premium it takes to get up to Ray from Woo, but it could be worth paying up to be contrarian. The Guardians strike out more than 25% of the time against left-handed opponents, with just a 77 wRC+. That makes this an even better matchup than Woo has on paper for a pitcher that typically has more upside.
Ray has a 28.1% strikeout rate of his own, to go with a sub-3.00 ERA. He’s averaging about one fewer inning per start than Woo but can obviously make up for that with punchouts. Plus, this game is in San Francisco, which has a top-three Park Factor for pitchers in the majors.
Keep an eye on our ownership projections this afternoon, as whichever top starter comes in as less popular is probably the better overall GPP play. With Warren projecting as a popular option as well, playing both expensive pitchers is also an intriguing option that likely comes with less combined ownership than their individual marks imply.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
One of the reasons I feel comfortable suggesting rostering two expensive pitchers is because of the price tag on the Cardinals stack.
They have a 4.8-run team total tonight against the White Sox, but their top five hitters check in at well under $4,000 per player.
That makes them an excellent value tonight, though a bit risky. We’re showing a chance of a rain delay at some point in this one in our free MLB Weather Report, which updates throughout the day. Keep an eye on that page as we approach lock, as a downgrade to the forecast would be about the only thing to push me off the Cardinals.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jose Altuve 2B/OF ($4,000) Houston Astros at Athletics (JP Sears)
The Astros stack didn’t work out yesterday, with Houston scoring just one run against the Athletics despite playing in the hitter-friendly stadium in Sacramento. To be fair, that one run was an Altuve homer.
He has an even better matchup tonight against JP Sears ($6,700), a southpaw with a 5.08 ERA. Plus, the matchup favors Altuve, as we can see his solid platoon splits in PlateIQ:
I’m interested in mini stacks featuring Paredes as well, as the Astros have a slate-high 5.8-run implied total tonight.
Tyler Soderstrom 1B/OF ($4,500) Athletics vs. Houston Astros (Jason Alexander)
The Athletics also benefit from the hitter-friendly park at home, and the game-time temperature is almost 90 degrees with wind blowing out to left center. That makes it a great spot for their power bats as well.
We tried Soderstrom last night, and he had a fairly disappointing 1-4 day with a single. He has a much easier matchup tonight against former Seinfeld star former Astro Jason Alexander ($6,500), who has a career 6.37 ERA in the majors.
Soderstrom has the best numbers on the A’s against righties, but I’m interested in their team in general.
Kyle Tucker OF ($6,400) Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Chad Patrick)
With both Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) and Aaron Judge ($6,600) on the slate, we’re projecting less than 5% ownership on Kyle Tucker.
That could be a mistake. While he doesn’t quite have the numbers of those two superstars, he has a strong matchup against Chad Patrick ($8,000). Patrick is solid, but he’s primarily a fly ball pitcher. That works well for him at American Family Field in Milwaukee but could be a problem tonight.
We’ve got a classic weather game at Wrigley, with Weather Edge showing a 23% boost to scoring overall and nearly a 40% boost to home runs. That’s over a 166-game sample size, so I trust those numbers. Power bats from this game are firmly in play, and there’s none better than Tucker.
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Pictured: Bryan Woo
Photo Credit: Getty Images
