The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Hunter Greene ($9,000) Cincinnati Reds (-150) at Los Angeles Angels
The top three pitchers on the slate today are separated by less than a point in median projections, with Greene the cheapest of the bunch. That makes him my favorite spend-up option at starting pitcher, since the extra $500-$800 dollars can make a big difference on the slate.
Greene was at one point a top contender for the NL Cy Young award but then spent an extended stint on the IL with various injuries. He made his return last week, striking out six Phillies across six scoreless innings. Cincinnati will want to get as many innings out of their ace as possible down the stretch, as they’re just one game out of the final NL Wild Card spot.
That performance removed any concerns about his health, and now he gets an even better matchup against the Angels. The Angels have a wRC+ about ten points less than the Phillies but, more importantly, strike out at the league’s highest rate against right-handed pitching, which is a huge boost to Greene’s upside.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Emmett Sheehan ($6,700) Los Angeles Dodgers (-281) at Colorado Rockies
With the Dodgers on the road in Colorado for the first half of the week, it’s creating some interesting starting pitcher decision points. On the one hand, the Rockies are the worst offense in baseball by most metrics. On the other, the game being in Coors Field is a big boost to offenses, making the Dodgers’ pitchers somewhat risky.
Especially unproven options like Sheehan, who had a cup of coffee in the majors in 2023 before returning to the bigs earlier this season. He’s been solid through his eight appearances (six starts), with a 3.86 ERA and 25% strikeout rate, with slightly better underlying numbers.
Of course, we’re never going to bank on positive regression when the game is at Coors Field, but it’s still an encouraging sign. Against a bad Rockies team, it’s probably enough for him to pay off his low salary, with reasonable upside thanks to his strikeout rate.
He leads our models in Pts/Sal projection by a wide margin, making him a fairly obvious cash game play. Especially since his salary makes getting up to one of the $9,000 pitchers much more comfortable.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jacob Lopez ($8,200) Athletics (+123) at Minnesota Twins
Jacob Lopez made eight appearances for a bit over 20 innings in 2023 and 2024 but is getting his first real shot at the majors in 2025. He’s made the most of his shot, holding a 3.30 ERA and 28.9% strikeout rate through 84.2 innings, despite pitching home games in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball.
Which is part of what makes him so intriguing tonight, since he’s in Minnesota. While Target Field is an above-average park for bats, it’s still a big step down from the Athletics’ temporary home field in Sacramento.
On top of that, the Twins are on the wrong side of their platoon splits against the southpaw Lopez and have basically given up on the 2025 season, trading two of their better hitters at the deadline. Despite that, the A’s are underdogs, which probably keeps the ownership on Lopez somewhat limited.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
We’re unfortunately not getting a discount — we’re in fact paying a $100 premium — on this Dodgers stack relative to last night, despite their disappointing three-run performance at Coors Field.
However, they’re still a solid option, as they’re very unlikely to drop another game to the last-place Rockies.
Los Angeles has an implied team total of 7.7 runs, 2.5 runs higher than any other team on the slate. It’s also somewhat easier to afford their top stack, with the value created from Lopez and Sheehan. Plus, rostering them alongside Sheehan builds some nice correlation.
I’d still look to pivot off one or two of their first five hitters for a cheaper option lower in their lineup, but I want as many Dodgers as I can get today.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Yandy Diaz 1B ($4,300) Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees (Carlos Rodon)
The tough pitching matchup against Rodon means Tampa Bay won’t be high on anyone’s list of bats to roster, but Diaz could be a solid exception. He has elite numbers against left-handed pitching and stands out in a big way in PlateIQ:
While he actually hits for a slightly higher average against righties, Diaz’s slugging percentage goes up more than 100 points against lefties, making him a solid boom-or-bust option for GPPs tonight.
Roman Anthony OF ($4,900) Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles (Tomoyuki Sugano)
The Red Sox are a fun sneaky stack today, as they have a solid matchup with Tomoyuki Sugano ($6,500). The Orioles rookie has a 4.13 ERA with worse underlying numbers and has been especially bad against left-handed hitters.
Lefties have a wOBA 30 points higher against Sugano than righties do, which is good news for the lefty-heavy Red Sox lineup generally and Anthony specifically. Boston’s leadoff hitter has an .835 OPS through 57 big league games, and this is the right matchup to be all-in on him.
Mike Tauchman OF ($3,200) Chicago White Sox vs. Atlanta Braves (Walker Buehler)
Walker Buehler ($5,500) taking on the White Sox is an example of a stoppable force meeting a movable object, as he brings an ERA in the mid-fives into a matchup against the 28th-ranked offense against wRC+.
Since Chicago is priced more for their ability than the matchup, they’re a solid way to save salary and afford more Dodgers bats on Tuesday. The best value is at the top, where leadoff man Tauchman is hitting .271 on the season but carries a cheap price tag. He’s unlikely to put up a huge score, but you don’t need it at his price.
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Pictured: Hunter Greene
Photo Credit: Getty Images
