The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Carlos Rodon ($10,200) New York Yankees (-220) vs. Minnesota Twins
Rodon currently ranks second in our median projections but trails the leader by just one one-hundredth of a point. He also feels like the much safer option, with the best Vegas data on the slate when factoring in moneyline odds as well as much more consistent performance.
The veteran lefty has a 3.35 ERA and a 27.9% strikeout rate. Those numbers are just shy of elite but still extremely strong, especially in tonight’s matchup. They’re taking on a Twins team that has solid full-season numbers but traded away key contributors Carlos Correa and Harrison Bader, reducing their offensive firepower.
While Minnesota isn’t a team we’ll be looking to automatically target, they also don’t provide any reason to fade a good pitcher who is facing them. Rodon is exactly that and has enough upside to justify his high price tag. The cheaper options are considerably riskier, making Rodon a solid cash game choice.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jack Flaherty ($9,200) Detroit Tigers (-182) at Chicago White Sox
The player who narrowly edges out Rodon in median projection (while tying him in ceiling projection) is Flaherty, who has struggled with consistency all season. On the positive front, he has a 28.9% strikeout rate, plus xFIP and SIERA numbers in the mid-threes.
On the downside, his ERA is in the mid-fours, a considerable step back from his excellent 2024 campaign that saw him start the season in Detroit before helping the Dodgers win the World Series as a trade deadline acquisition. His underlying metrics suggest that maybe he’s just been unlucky, but the sample size is getting too big to bank on regression at this point.
What tips the scales his way tonight is the matchup. He’s facing a White Sox team that is tied for 29th in wRC+ against righties, with an above-average strikeout rate. That’s the perfect spot for Flaherty to realize some positive regression, with Chicago implied for just 3.8 runs.
While he isn’t exactly cheap, he’s second on the slate in Pts/Sal projection. For a cheaper option to relieve some salary, consider Matthew Liberatore ($7,400) of the Cardinals. He’s a much worse pitcher than Flaherty but gets the only better matchup, taking on a Rockies team that ranks dead last in wRC+ and second to last in strikeout rate.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Paul Skenes ($11,000) Pittsburgh Pirates (-102) at Milwaukee Brewers
Paul Skenes has been arguably the best pitcher in the MLB this season, from both a fantasy and real-life perspective. That’s reflected in his $11K price tag as well as his 22.2 PPG average this season. Normally he’d be a comfortable play even at cost, but he’s a little less trustworthy as the season winds down.
That’s because his Pirates are out of contention, and there’s not much reason to continue to push the 23-year-old phenom. They’ll need a healthy Skenes for the next five seasons he’s under team control, during which point they hope to finally contend.
That means there’s a chance he starts seeing his workload limited at some point this year, as he’s already thrown more innings than any other season in his pro career. The question is when that limiting starts to take effect.
So far, it hasn’t, with each of Skenes last three starts all lasting just under 100 pitches, right in line with his average. I want some exposure on Skenes until the brakes are applied, but approach with caution, as this (or any) start could be the start of a downward trend.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
You won’t be able to fit the Dodgers stack with two of the expensive pitchers listed above, though you can almost squeeze them in if you can include Liberatore in the second pitcher’s spot.
The good news is that should keep ownership on Los Angeles somewhat lower, as the top pitching options will all be fairly popular. The Dodgers lead the slate with their 5.9-run total, nearly half a run higher than any other team.
While their star-studded lineup can do damage in any matchup, they’ve got an especially attractive one tonight. They’re taking on Angels lefty Tyler Anderson ($6,200), who comes into the game with a 4.63 ERA and even worse underlying numbers.
This is a classic pay-up-to-be-contrarian spot on the Dodgers, and I want at least some exposure to them.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ivan Herrera OF ($4,100) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
The second-best stack in our models belongs to the Cardinals. They’re about $6,000 cheaper as a group, despite still having a 5.3-run implied total.
However, I prefer to target specific St. Louis bats tonight rather than a full stack against Kyle Freeland ($5,000). The answer why is obvious in PlateIQ:
The majority of their lineup hits lefties fairly poorly, with the notable exceptions being Herrera and Wilson Contreras 1B ($4,100). Rostering one or both of them rather than a full stack is the better option tonight.
Colt Keith 3B ($3,400) Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (Mike Vasil)
Colt Keith continues to be underpriced, considering he’s a slightly above-average overall hitter on the season with his 113 wRC+. He’s hitting .261 with nine home runs through 106 games, not numbers that will blow you away, but certainly solid marks compared to his cheap salary.
Particularly when the Tigers have a winnable matchup, like tonight against Chicago’s Mike Vasil ($5,300). Vasil has a 2.38 ERA on the season but has primarily been used in relief; as a starter, that number jumps to 6.55. With Detroit implied for five runs and Keith set to hit second in their lineup, he’s a solid value option.
Bobby Witt SS ($6,100) Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals (Mackenzie Parker)
Witt falls into the category of players that we could make a case for on any slate. He’s having a slightly down year by his standards but is hitting .285 with 17 home runs and 30 steals through 117 appearances. That gives him plenty of upside with both speed and power.
He’s especially interesting today, though, because the Royals are taking on lefty Mitchell Parker ($5,700). In part that’s due to Parker’s poor numbers, but more important are Witt’s splits. He’s hitting .322 against southpaws on the season, nearly 50 points higher than against righties, raising his floor considerably.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Pictured: Carlos Rodon
Photo Credit: Getty Images
