The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Framber Valdez ($9,800) Houston Astros (-230) vs. Chicago White Sox
With the Tigers/Orioles game not on the late slate, we have a very obvious top pitcher on Thursday. That’s Valdez, who is arguably both the best pitcher and has the best matchup of the eight starters we have to choose from.
He comes into the game with a 25% strikeout rate and an ERA just over 3.00, with underlying numbers to support both metrics. More importantly, he’s facing the White Sox. They have a 75 wRC+ mark against left-handed pitching while striking out at a top-ten rate. While Valdez probably doesn’t put up a massive strikeout number, he’s averaging about 6.5 innings per start this season, so he can certainly pick up points by pitching deep into this one.
He has easily the best Vegas Data on the slate, with Chicago implied for just 3.1 runs and Houston more than a two-to-one moneyline favorite. Accordingly, he leads the slate in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection by a wide margin.
Of course, that will come with heavy ownership on a slate where we need to be extra mindful not to be duplicated. Even so, I believe there are better ways to get unique than by fading Valdez.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jameson Taillon ($8,200) Chicago Cubs (-206) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Taillon isn’t quite the pitcher Valdez is, but he nevertheless has similar Vegas data on Thursday. Part of that is due to the matchup, with Pittsburgh ranking 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They aren’t as bad as the White Sox are against lefties, but it’s certainly an upgrade to pitchers facing them.
The crucial factor for Taillon — and in this game — is the weather. According to Weather Edge, the conditions at Wrigley tonight reduce scoring by 14%, a significant drop. That’s based on a sample size of more than 150 games with similar weather, which is a very solid sample size.
Taillon has a 3.54 ERA on the season, so scrubbing an extra 14% or so off that would make him borderline elite. He’s not a huge strikeout pitcher, however, which might make it hard for him to make the GPP optimal lineup.
Due to that, he’s an extremely strong cash game play, but I think we can do better — at least when factoring in ownership — for tournaments.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Will Warren ($7,500) New York Yankees (-147) at Kansas City Royals
Warren is one potential pivot for Taillon, who is both $700 cheaper and projected for lower ownership. That’s despite Warren having arguably higher upside, thanks to his 29.4% strikeout rate through 13 starts this season.
The bad news is that Warren has an ERA north of 5.00 this year. However, that seems mostly like a case of bad luck. His underlying numbers are all in the mid-threes, with a HR/FB ratio and BABIP both above league average.
This could be the get-right matchup he needs, since the Royals are a bottom-five team in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Unlike the last few days in Kansas City that gave batters a huge boost to scoring, the weather is fairly neutral tonight as well.
The price and ownership on Warren are worth taking a shot on, especially if you’re eating the chalk on Valdez with your other pitcher spot.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Yankees:
The other thing I like about rostering Warren at pitcher is that he lines up nicely with our top stack of the day: the Yankees.
Not only do we bake in some correlation between New York’s hitters doing well and Warren picking up a win bonus, but Warren’s salary makes it possible to afford the expensive Yankees stack.
They’re taking on Seth Lugo ($7,800), whose stat line is the inverse of Warren’s this year. His 3.46 ERA looks solid, but his xERA is over 5.00, and the rest of his ERA predictors are at least in the fours. He’s also been considerably worse against lefties, which explains the construction on this Yankees stack.
Given Lugo’s splits, it makes sense to cram as many left-handed bats around Judge as possible, as our top stack does. For deeper GPPs, you could even fade Judge for catcher Austin Wells ($4,100), which saves a ton of salary and projected ownership while making this lineup all left-handed bats.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Seiya Suzuki OF ($5,300) Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Andrew Heaney)
Suzuki is an interesting pivot from Judge with that outfield spot, if you go with the alternate Yankees stack angle. He’s $1,300 cheaper and should be lower-owned but is arguably just as good of a play.
That’s because Suzuki’s numbers against lefties rival Judge’s against righties, as we can see in PlateIQ:
The wind in Chicago makes him more of a “solid play” than one I’m rushing to click, but he’s an interesting option for larger field contests.
Lars Nootbaar OF ($4,200) St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (Jacob Misiorowski)
The Cardinals are an interesting team to target today, since they’re taking on MLB debutante Jacob Misiorowski ($8,000). The soon-to-be rookie had a 2.13 ERA in Triple-A this season, but stepping up to the big leagues is an entirely different ballgame (pun intended).
Nootbaar will be his first-ever MLB opponent since he has the top spot in the Cardinals’ projected lineup. If they can get to the rookie early, Nootbaar would be a solid value.
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Pictured: Framber Valdez
Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
