The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider ($9,500) Atlanta Braves (-176) at Athletics
It’s an absolutely brutal slate for pitching, as not a single team on the board has a total under 4.1 runs. As such, nearly every pitcher is overpriced — in the context of other slates, at least — for their likeliest outcome today.
The one exception might be Strider, who leads the slate in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection. After missing most of 2024 with his second Tommy John surgery, Strider got off to a slow start in 2025. He allowed 15 runs through his first 19 innings pitched on the season, with just one quality start in those five games.
However, since then he’s taken strides steps towards the pitcher he once was, allowing just nine runs in his next five starts, which encompassed 30 innings. He also struck out 39 hitters in that time frame, with three 20+ point games on DraftKings.
It’s not the best situation for Strider tonight, as Sutter Health Field in Sacramento is the new Coors and the A’s are implied for 4.4 runs. However, for want of better options, he’s pretty clearly the top pitcher on the slate. One or two more strong starts and his salary likely hits five figures, so this might be the last chance to get him at this price tag.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Logan Allen ($7,700) Cleveland Guardians (-130) at Chicago White Sox
The two top pitchers on the slate in Pts/Sal projection are also the two most expensive, so we’ll have to dig a bit deeper if we want to save salary. There are not any truly comfortable options with the high totals across the slate, but I’m interested in taking a flier on Allen.
The Guardians lefty has a 4.07 ERA and 17.9% strikeout rate on the season, so he doesn’t profile as somebody we’d typically be interested in at $7,700. However, he’s also taking on the White Sox, baseball’s 28th-ranked offense by wRC+.
That comes with a bit of a caveat, as Chicago is better — though still not good — against left-handed pitching, but this isn’t the kind of slate where we can be overly picky. The White Sox 4.1-run implied total is the lowest on the slate, so getting Allen as the sixth-most expensive pitcher is almost a value by default.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Bryan Woo ($10,000) Seattle Mariners (-110) at New York Yankees
While the case for Allen was bad pitching against bad hitting, the thesis on Woo is the opposite. Woo has a 2.77 ERA and the second-best strikeout rate on the slate (behind Strider) — but also has a very difficult matchup with the Yankees in New York.
I specified in New York because it’s always risky banking on Mariners starters away from home. Seattle has the best Park Factor for pitchers in baseball, and Woo’s home ERA is 1.80. His 3.47 mark on the road isn’t nearly as strong, though it’s still a solid mark.
Plus, the Yankees are the best offense in baseball (both overall and against righties) despite cooling down a bit in the last month or so. They do strike out at a relatively high rate, though, so pitchers facing them are inherently somewhat high variance.
With woo projecting for less than half the ownership of Strider, he’s a fairly obvious GPP pivot. I wouldn’t roster him on most slates, but we have to take the best opportunities we have tonight.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
As I alluded to in the Strider section, the Braves are in Sacramento tonight, where Sutter Health Park has become Coors Field 2.0.
The Braves put up nine runs there last night and have an arguably better matchup today against JP Sears ($7,100).
The left-handed Sears has a 4.76 ERA on the season, but that number rises to 5.63 at home. While Atlanta doesn’t have great overall numbers against lefties, the bulk of their season-long stats came without Acuna — who has a career .898 OPS against lefties and hit two home runs last night.
They’re not cheap, exactly, but their price tag is more than fair considering their slate-high 5.8-run implied total.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jo Adell OF ($4,100) Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers (Patrick Corbin)
Picking on Patrick Corbin ($7,500) isn’t as fun as it was in past years, but the veteran leftie’s 4.18 ERA also won’t scare me off rostering bats against him. It’s a big improvement over the 5+ ERAs he had each of the past four seasons, but there’s still points to be had when he’s on the mound.
Especially for a hitter like Adell, who specializes in hitting left-handed pitching. He pops in PlateIQ:
While I’d prefer he be higher up in the Angels lineup, he’s still a solid play at $4,100.
J.P. Crawford SS ($3,600) Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees (Marcus Stroman)
While I mentioned being wary of Mariners pitchers at T-Mobile Park, the opposite is true for their bats. Seattle ranks 15th in wRC+ at home but third on the road with a 116 mark as a team.
Plus, they have a juicy matchup against Marcus Stroman ($6,000), who has a 7.45 ERA on the season and has missed significant time due to injury. He’s been better since his stint on the IL, but those results seem more based on luck than improvement. His ERA since returning is 3.60, but his xFIP is nearly 6.00.
Which leads us to Crawford, an underpriced leadoff hitter batting .287 on the season. I’m interested in stacking the Mariners where I can but will make it a point to roster Crawford specifically.
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Pictured: Spencer Strider
Photo Credit: Getty Images
