The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Aaron Nola ($8,700) Philadelphia Phillies (-188) vs. Atlanta Braves
Even with only three games on the slate, there are some fascinating decisions to be made at starting pitcher. There are no true “stud” plays on the board, but Nola is the most expensive play and has the highest ceiling and floor projections on the board in the FantasyLabs projections. He also has the highest median and ceiling projections in the THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders.
Nola’s an extremely volatile play this Thursday night, since he has had a rough year overall but is coming off a good outing and brings the highest strikeout prediction of the night.
The Phillies’ veteran missed an extended chunk in the middle of the season with ankle and rib injuries and has made two starts since returning. He looked solid at home against the Nats in his last start, going six solid innings and allowing just two runs with six strikeouts and 21.9 fantasy points.
Even after that win, he’s only 2-7 on the year with a 6.52 ERA and 4.98 FIP. His velocity was down before the injury, and unless it comes back, he could struggle to be effective against a Braves lineup that has a good history against him.
However, because he looked good in that last outing and has the potential to build on that at home against Atlanta, he brings the highest ceiling on the slate. “Paying up” for him won’t cost a ton, and he’ll be a popular play to build around since the other options are shaky as well.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Clay Holmes ($7,900) New York Mets (-255) vs. Miami Marlins
The Mets are the heaviest favorites on the board, and the Marlins have the lowest implied run total of any team in action under the lights. Holmes has the highest floor projection in THE BATX projections and the second-highest median and ceiling projections, so he’s a solid option to build around. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all pitchers in those projections.
Holmes had a great start to the year as he transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation, but stumbled a bit in July. However, he has seemed to get his game back together in his last few outings.
Holmes has earned at least 16 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts and is coming off his best fantasy outing in a few months. He earned his second straight win when he held the Braves to two runs on three hits over 6.1 innings on Saturday to finish with 19.25 DraftKings points.
That win moved him to 11-6 with a 3.60 ERA, 4.09 FIP, and 7.1 K/9. His strikeouts have been a little down lately, which has limited his fantasy value. On this slate, though, with the hot Mets lineup behind him, he’s a very solid value play compared to the other high-risk options who are cheaper than him.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Davis Martin ($7,400) Chicago White Sox (+160) vs. New York Yankees
Each of the three inexpensive options on the board comes with significant risk factors, but of the three, Martin has the best overall projections.
Martin has been fairly reliable for the White Sox this season, going 5-9 in his 20 games and compiling a 3.93 ERA and 4.76 FIP. He has been even better at home, where he has a 3.30 ERA and 4.61 FIP. His K% is also higher at home (18.1%) than on the road (16.1%), and he has averaged 14.5 DraftKings points in his 10 home starts this season.
Martin earned over 19 DraftKings points in each of his last two outings, earning a win last Saturday over the Twins with five innings of work and two runs allowed with six strikeouts. He was even better in his previous outing against the Royals, allowing just one hit over six scoreless innings.
He’s in a tough matchup against the Yankees, who bring plenty of thunder and power potential, but they have also been very inconsistent over the last few weeks, and Martin shutting them down definitely feels within the realm of possible results.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by Projected Plus/Minus using the tournament model, belongs to the New York Mets:
The Mets have the second-highest implied run total on the slate as they face Adam Mazur ($6,500), who will be making just his second MLB start this season. He gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings to the Phillies on June 18 in his other MLB appearance and compiled a 6-7 record with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp while posting a 4.36 ERA and 5.12 FIP in 22 games. Mazur is taking the roster rotation spot left open when Janson Junk (elbow) landed on IL.
The Mets are flying high after sweeping the Phillies and have the third-highest team wOBA and third-highest wRC+ in the majors over the last month. Stacking the top five in their order gives you plenty of power potential, with both Juan Soto and Pete Alonso bringing lots of firepower and high ceilings.
Mark Vientos has also been red-hot over his last 10 games, going 15-for-38 (.395) with four doubles, six homers, and a .569 wOBA to average 15.3 DraftKings points per game. The fact that he’s still under $3,000 makes him one of the best buys on the board at any position.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Trent Grisham ($4,200) New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox (Davis Martin)
While Vientos (see above) has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the board in the aggregate projections, Grisham checks in second just behind him.
Grisham has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games and is 9-for-31 (.290) with five home runs in his last eight games. He has been streaky throughout this season, but his 26 homers and his typical spot at the top of the Yankees order make him a very solid option to consider at just over $4,000.
Grisham has actually had a much better batting average on the road (.286) than at home (.206), and since he’s facing a righty in Martin, he’ll be on the strong side of his splits as a solid option on Thursday night.
OF Harrison Bader ($3,200) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves (Cal Quantrill)
Bader was one of many players from the Minnesota Twins who got a new address at the trade deadline, and he’s given the Phillies a nice boost since entering the outfield mix.
He is hitting .274 with two homers and a .349 wOBA in his 21 games with the club. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders on the slate with a salary under $3,500, and he trails only Vientos for all players under $3,500.
Another thing that makes Bader stand out in this matchup is that he has gone 5-for-7 in his past meetings against Quantrill, with three of those five being home runs.
The Phillies have the highest implied run total on the slate, and here’s how the lineup stacks up against Quantril in our Plate IQ tool:
Ultimately, they stand out as one of the top team targets of the day, and Bader is one of their best pure values.
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Pictured: Mark Vientos
Photo Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images
