The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tarik Skubal ($11,900) Detroit Tigers (-215) at Minnesota Twins
This is an extremely obvious choice at the top of the projections today, with Skubal holding a huge lead in both median and ceiling projections over every other pitcher on the slate. The AL Cy Young frontrunner has a career-high 33.8% strikeout rate and a career-low 2.35 ERA on the season, improving on his 2024 Cy Young-winning season.
The real question is whether or not he’ll be worth his massive price tag or if two midrange pitchers would outscore Skubal and a cheaper option at a similar combined price. Rostering Skubal is a bet on an absolutely monster game from him, but that’s well within the range of outcomes.
He’s hit double-digit strikeouts in four of his last seven appearances, and it’s a favorable matchup tonight against the Twins. They’re on the wrong side of their platoon splits against lefties and traded away two of their better hitters at the trade deadline.
I won’t be going all out to force Skubal into all of my lineups, but he’ll be a major part of my plans for the five-game slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jesus Luzardo ($8,400) Philadelphia Phillies (-196) at Washington Nationals
Luzardo is the only pitcher on the slate with a better Pts/Sal projection than Skubal and, unsurprisingly, is expected to lead the slate in ownership as well. He’s pretty clearly underpriced on DraftKings, where he holds a 96% Bargain Rating.
It’s been an up-and-down year for the Phillies lefty, but he’s produced a positive Plus/Minus score in three straight outings and brings reasonably high upside thanks to his 26.8% strikeout rate. Like Skubal, he’s taking on a team with significantly worse numbers against southpaws, and the Nationals team total is the second lowest on the slate.
All of which makes this an ideal time to roster Luzardo, whose salary will almost certainly go up considerably before his next start. Fitting him in rosters with Skubal is difficult but theoretically possible and could be a somewhat contrarian way to build around the top pitchers on the slate.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Bailey Ober ($7,200) Minnesota Twins (+171) vs. Detroit Tigers
Skubal’s opponent, Baily Ober, is clearly no match for Skubal. That explains the heavy favoritism on the other side of this one, with Ober’s Twins as fairly large underdogs.
However, that doesn’t mean he’s a bad DFS play. Ober comes into the game with a 5.16 ERA, but his SIERA and xERA numbers are about a run better. Still nothing special, but there’s been an element of bad luck in his stats so far this season.
More importantly, the Tigers might be a better matchup than they appear on paper. While they’re theoretically an average offense against righties, they’ve struggled heavily in recent weeks. They scored just nine runs in three games against the White Sox and have cooled off considerably since the All-Star Break.
Plus, they’re a strong team to roster against in GPPs. While they’ve been capable of scoring runs, they also strike out at a high clip. Detroit’s 24% strikeout rate against righties is the third-highest in the MLB. While Ober isn’t a huge strikeout pitcher, if things break right for him, he could easily outscore his $7,200 salary.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
On the one hand, it’s easy to see how our models arrived at the Diamondbacks as the top stack on the slate. Their 6.9-run total is the highest on the slate by 1.5 runs, as they take on the Rockies at Coors Field.
On the other, there’s almost no way to get to the Diamondbacks’ full stack without taking some huge chances at pitcher, making this stack more aspirational than realistic.
On just a five-game slate, you probably won’t be able to fit this entire stack without rostering the pitcher against them, Colorado’s Bradley Blalock ($5,000), since he’s the cheapest on the slate. That’s obviously a terrible idea.
Still, if you somehow find a way, their massive price tag means the collective ownership will be much lower than implied by their individual ownership, so it’s a solid contrarian spot.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jordan Beck OF ($4,200) Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Eduardo Rodriguez)
A cheaper way to get exposure to Coors Field is through the Rockies. Of course, they’re cheaper because they’re one of the worst offenses in baseball, with a 75 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. They’re facing southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez ($6,900) tonight
I took a peek at PlateIQ to see if there were any Rockies hitters with solid numbers against lefties that we could target in mini stacks and arrived at Beck as the best option:
He and catcher Hunter Goodman ($5,000) are the only Rockies bats with both strong numbers and a trustworthy sample size. While I’d be fine with rostering both, Goodman’s price tag makes it a bit trickier.
Colt Keith 3B ($3,600) Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (Bailey Ober)
One way to afford both of the top pitchers on the slate today is to pair Skubal with his offense, especially leadoff hitter Colt Keith. I mentioned the boom-or-bust nature of the free-swinging Tigers lineup in the section on Ober. That makes them an interesting option offensively, especially with the nature of salaries on today’s slate.
Keith stands out for his extreme value, especially since he’s been an above-average hitter (115 wRC+) this season. While he’s not a huge home run hitter, a few hits and a run scored would be more than enough at his salary.
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Pictured: Tarik Skubal
Photo Credit: Imagn
