The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease ($9,200) San Diego Padres (-220) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Padres are the heaviest favorites on the board for Saturday night’s four-game slate, according to our Vegas Dashboard, and Cease has the top ceiling, median, and floor projection in both the FantasyLabs projections and the projections from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders.
On the slate, Cease also has the highest strikeout prediction in this favorable matchup against the Pirates, who have the lowest implied run total on the board.
Cease is only 1-3 on the season in 11 starts, and he has a 4.58 ERA. He has a 3.25 FIP, though, and only a 1.25 WHIP and 66% LOB%, all of which could indicate he’s due for some positive regression in his ERA. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last eight starts, stacking up 54 strikeouts in 44 1/3 innings.
Cease had 10 strikeouts in his last home start and has been better at Petco Park than on the road this season. He had 27.4 DraftKings points in that outing against the Angels and has over 17 DraftKings points in four straight games, even while he has been giving up a few runs in each outing.
The Pirates are a great matchup for Cease since they have scored the second-fewest runs in the majors this season while hitting just .226 as a team, with a .287 wOBA and 23.3% K%. Over the last two weeks, the Pirates’ K% has ticked up to 23.8%, averaging 8.8 strikeouts per game.
With such a good matchup, Cease has a great strikeout ceiling and stands out as the top elite pay-up option on the mound this Saturday night.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Bailey Ober ($7,200) Minnesota Twins (-108) at Seattle Mariners
Ober has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all pitchers in THE BAT X projections and the second-highest in the FantasyLabs projections, behind only Cease.
Aside from Cease, Ober has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection as well. He brings a huge 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he stands out with only the sixth-highest salary of the eight starting pitchers on the schedule.
Ober started the season with a brutal eight-run outing in St. Louis, which is still impacting his overall numbers. He has allowed exactly one earned run in six of his last seven outings, going 3-0 during that span with a 2.08 ERA and 2.54 FIP over that span. During his 39 innings in those seven starts, he only had 29 strikeouts, but he posted a 1.28 WHIP with zero or one walk in six of those seven starts.
Even though Ober doesn’t have Cease’s punchout potential, he has still managed to be effective enough to include. He produced at least 14 DraftKings points in eight of his last 10 starts and is coming off 14.2 DraftKings points in 6 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Royals in his last outing.
The Mariners jumped out to an early lead against Twins starter Zebby Matthews on Friday, but Minnesota rallied to a 12-6 win, handing Seattle their third straight loss and fifth defeat in their last six games. Over their last 10 games, the M’s have scored three runs or fewer six times and averaged just 3.5 runs per game with a 23.8% strikeout rate, which ranks in the top 10 in the majors.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Will Warren ($8,000) New York Yankees (+102) at Los Angeles Dodgers
If you’re ready to walk on the wild side and swing for the fences with your GPP starting pitcher pick for Saturday night, one option to consider is Will Warren of the Yankees. The risk is pretty obvious: He’s facing the Dodgers on the road, but he has shown enough of a ceiling that he brings boom-or-bust potential to this slate.
Warren has the second-highest strikeout prediction behind only Cease, and he’s in a pretty favorable head-to-head matchup against Landon Knack (more below). He will likely have a low ownership because of the matchup and is worth a flier play if you can handle the risk.
In his last start, Warren had seven strikeouts in four innings against the Rockies before the rain rolled in and cut his outing short after just 57 pitches. The 25-year-old pitcher has at least seven strikeouts in five straight outings, totaling 41 Ks in 26 2/3 innings. He had over 20 DraftKings points in three straight starts before his rain-shortened outing at Coors Field. During those outings, he earned over 29 DraftKings points in a pair of victories over the Rangers and Athletics.
The Dodgers flexed their upside in the first game of this World Series rematch, rallying to an 8-5 victory. Their lineup has tons of potential, but there are some strikeout options for Warren to attack lower in the lineup.
He’s high risk, but he also has a very high ceiling that you can use in GPP builds.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees are an expensive stack, but they have a very high ceiling as they look to pull even in their three-game set with the Dodgers. They’ll take on Landon Knack ($6,500). Knack has gone 2-2 with a 5.22 ERA and 4.95 FIP in his seven games this season. Knack has given up six homers in his 29 1/3 innings this season with five of those home runs coming to right-handed hitters, who have a .291 batting average and .398 wOBA against him this season.
Aaron Judge ($6,600) has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all hitters on the slate. He hit his 19th homer of the season in Friday’s loss and is hitting .382 (26-for-68) with seven homers, a 55.1% hard-hit rate, and an 18.4% barrel rate over his last 18 games. He can be the anchor for your Yankees stack on Saturday.
Based on the splits, Anthony Volpe ($4,400) and Paul Goldschmidt ($4,700) are also key plays to consider, while lefties Trent Grisham ($4,500) and former-Dodger Cody Bellinger ($4,900) can round out the stack.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Xander Bogaerts SS ($3,900) San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Bailey Falter)
Bogaerts has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shortstops on the slate as he and the Padres take on lefty Bailey Falter. Falter has a 3.47 ERA and 4.65 xFIP this season, and the Padres should be ready to get to him on Saturday.
On the season, Bogaerts is hitting .245 with a .297 wOBA, but he has picked up his play over the last week, going 7-for-21 (.333) with three runs scored, two walks, and two stolen bases for an average of 10.6 DraftKings points per game.
If he stays aggressive on the basepaths, he’ll have an even higher ceiling, and the splits are also in his favor. He’s hitting .269 against southpaws this season and has eight of his 11 stolen bases at Petco Park, where he is averaging a solid 7.5 fantasy points per contest.
Josh Bell 1B ($3,000) Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt)
The Nationals have scored nine runs in each of the last three games, winning three straight over the Mariners and Diamondbacks. Bell has fueled that surge with a home run and multiple hits in each of the last three games, posting 22, 21, and 23 DraftKings points.
On the season, Bell is hitting only .181 with a .287 wOBA, but over the last 15 games, he’s hitting .294 with four homers and a .408 wOBA.
The switch-hitting Bell will face Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt as a lefty, and lefties have had success against Pfaadt this year. In his 11 starts, Pfaadt has allowed 12 home runs, including five in his last three outings. Left-handed hitters have hit seven of the 12 homers against him. Here’s how Bell and the rest of the Nats look on Saturday in our PlateIQ tool, which I think looks especially sharp in dark mode:
Robert Hassell III OF ($2,600) Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt)
Hassell is another lefty who makes sense against Pfaadt, especially since the 23-year-old rooikie has shown so much upside at such a low salary.
Hassell had two hits and a stolen base for 15 DraftKings points in his MLB debut just over a week ago. He earned his promotion with a hot May in Triple-A, where he posted a .339/.381/.559 triple-slash and added four home runs. He has hit safely in each of the last three games for the Nats, including his first MLB home run on Wednesday, when he finished with 24 fantasy points.
Hassell is 8-for-32 (.250) in his first eight games, with an average of 7.0 fantasy points per game, but he has the power and speed to offer a high ceiling from his low salary, especially given Pfaadt’s struggles on his side of the splits.
The Nats are a solid bargain stack to mix in with the Yankees or other high-priced stack since Bell, Hassell, Jose Tena ($2,800), and Daylen Lile ($2,100) all come at bargain salaries but have had good numbers.
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