The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Garret Crochet ($11,000) Boston Red Sox (-109) at New York Yankees
The Red Sox and Yankees clash in the Bronx on Saturday night’s slate in what will be a fascinating pitching matchup and contrast of styles between Crochet and Ryan Yarbrough. Even though he’s facing a very tough matchup against the Yankees, Crochet has the top ceiling, median, and floor projection in both the FantasyLabs projections and the projections from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders.
On the 10-team evening slate, Crochet also ranks in the top three on each site in Projected Plus/Minus and has the highest strikeout prediction on the board.
While the rest of the Red Sox rotation has struggled, Crochet has been outstanding in his first year in Boston. He is averaging 24.5 DraftKings points per start with a 5-4 record, 1.98 ERA, 2.67 FIP, and 30.9% strikeout rate. He has 101 strikeouts in 82 innings and is coming off back-to-back games with double-digit strikeouts on the road against the Brewers and Braves.
In his last seven games, he has allowed a total of 10 runs, never giving up more than two runs in any outing.
This will be his first taste of the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry since joining the Red Sox. He pitched 3 2/3 shutout innings against them out of the bullpen when he was with the White Sox, but this will be his first start against the Yankees.
The Yankees’ offense has been good enough to make Crochet a risky play, especially at this elevated salary, but there is no other stud on the slate that comes close to matching his upside. His strikeout rate is so high that he can overcome a few runs allowed as well.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Charlie Morton ($6,000) Baltimore Orioles (-121) at Athletics
Morton has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all pitchers in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections for Saturday night even though he’s pitching at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. Morton was a mess early in the season but has found a good groove in his last two outings. His salary is still extremely low as a result of his low season-long numbers, but he brings a great ceiling if he can continue his momentum from his last two outings.
In his first five starts of the season, he went 0-5 with a 10.89 ERA, 6.51 FIP, and 2.23 WHIP. He was ultimately sent to the bullpen for a while, where he seemed to solve his issues. In his last five games, he went 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and 0.86 WHIP.
He came back to the rotation for his last two appearances, earning 19.3 fantasy points against the Cardinals and 28.8 fantasy points against the White Sox. He only gave up one unearned run in that outing against Chicago, going 6 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts, one walk, and six hits allowed.
Morton’s inconsistency does make him high risk, but at only $6,000, he brings a ton of potential value against the Athletics, who have won their last two games but are still just 4-20 over their last 24 games. The offense hasn’t been their main issue, but all their pitching issues do increase Morton’s chance to get a win in this matchup with Luis Severino.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Clay Holmes ($9,000) New York Mets (-286) at Colorado Rockies
The Mets are the heaviest favorites on Saturday night’s slate as they visit the Rockies at Coors Field. Holmes is risky due to the Coors elevation and the high run potential, but he gets a great matchup against the Rockies, who have been one of the best lineups to attack all season long.
In his transition to the starting rotation, Holmes has been very solid despite some home run issues. He is 6-3 in 12 starts with a 3.07 ERA, 3.87 FIP, and 1.16 WHIP. He has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his last nine outings, and he beat the Rockies in his last start, allowing three runs in seven innings with three strikeouts to earn 17.4 fantasy points last Sunday.
Holmes’ strikeouts have been a little low lately, which has kept his fantasy production in check. He has done a great job being efficient and working deep into games, though, working at least 5 2/3 innings in six straight outings and averaging 17.3 DraftKings points over that span.
Even though they play at Coors, the Rockies have scored the fewest runs in the majors this season. They also have the highest K% of any team at 26.6%. As a team, they have a wRC+ of 65, which means their run production is 35% lower than league average. Over the last two weeks, they are hitting an MLB-low .209 as a team with an average of 2.6 runs per game.
Rolling with any starting pitcher at Coors Field is an inherently risky strategy, but for GPP contests, Holmes brings enough upside to overcome that risk and be a strong option to consider.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the New York Mets:
The Mets are an expensive stack against the Rockies at Coors Field, but they also have the highest run projection and a great matchup, making them definitely worth a look. They’ll face young southpaw Carson Palmquist ($5,000), who will be making his fifth MLB start. In his 18 innings, he has an 8.50 ERA, 6.24 FIP, and 1.83 WHIP.
In the aggregate projections, Juan Soto ($5,900) has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all hitters on the slate. He has snapped out of his slump and has gone 9-for-26 (.346) with three home runs over his last eight games, averaging 12.5 DraftKings points per game over that span.
The top five hitters in Projected Plus/Minus all come from the Mets, with recent call-up Ronny Mauricio ($3,000) leading the way. Brandon Nimmo ($4,600) also gets a boost since he is likely to hit leadoff with Francisco Lindor (toe) likely getting another day off after fracturing his little toe. It’s also hard to ignore Pete Alonso ($5,700) in this matchup after six homers and an average of 13.6 fantasy points per game over his last 12 contests.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Lawrence Butler OF ($4,400) Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles (Charlie Morton)
Despite Morton’s recent success, Butler is a strong option from the middle range in the outfield salary structure since he has been heating up to help the A’s get back on track after a brutal month. Butler has a high ceiling and can produce power and speed, giving him multiple paths to a big game.
In his last 16 games, Butler produced 13 fantasy points per game by hitting .391 with a .496 wOBA and three of his nine home runs. He has been smashing the ball over that stretch, with a 59.5% hard-hit rate, a 14.3% barrel rate, and an average exit velocity of 93 miles per hour.
Butler has done almost all of his damage against right-handed pitchers, so he’ll be on the strong side of his splits against Morton. He has 12+ fantasy points in four of his last five games and had 14 fantasy points on Friday with his sixth multi-hit game in his last eight contests.
Coby Mayo 1B/3B ($2,200) Baltimore Orioles at Athletics (Luis Severino)
Mayo went 1-for-2 with a double and a walk for seven fantasy points on Friday night and is starting to find a little bit of success in his second stint in the majors this season. Mayo is 3-for-15 with three runs scored, two walks, and a double. His double on Friday was his first barrel in the majors this year, although he does have a 50% hard-hit rate in his five games since returning from Triple-A.
He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 1B on Saturday in the aggregate projections and the fourth-highest at 3B.
Mayo has thrived in the minors over the last two years. In 2024, he hit .293 with a .413 wOBA and 25 homers for the Norfolk Tides. This year, he has eight homers and a .341 wOBA in his 45 games in the minors, which was enough to earn him another promotion earlier this month.
If he can translate his minor league production to the majors, he’ll be an awesome value since he’s available at barely over the minimum salary. Although Luis Severino ($7,200) has done a great job limiting home runs, he has a 6.99 ERA, 4.28 xFIP, and 1.49 WHIP at home, which makes the Orioles a solid spot to look for some runs on Saturday.
Here’s how they stack up on Saturday in our PlateIQ tool, which I think looks especially sharp in dark mode:
Thairo Estrada 2B ($2,600) Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets (Clay Holmes)
Estrada has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 2B on Saturday night as he continues to settle into the Rockies order after missing the first two months of the season with a wrist injury.
He has only played six games but has slotted second in the batting order in the last three games and should continue to hit in a premium position, especially with Ezequiel Tovar (oblique) landing on the injured list.
Estrada is 6-for-22 (.273), with half of his hits going for extra bases (a trio of doubles). He had his first barrel of the season on Wednesday and two hard-hit batted ball events on Friday in his Coors Field debut as a member of the home team.
Just a few years ago, Estrada was a key contributor for the Giants, and he’ll look to have a bounce-back campaign this year with the Rockies. His injury set back that effort coming out of spring training, but he looks like he’s rounding into form and can be a good power and speed target when the Rockies are playing at home.
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