The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Hunter Brown ($10,800) Houston Astros (-210) vs. Athletics
This Saturday’s features a massive 11-game MLB DFS slate, and of the 22 starting pitchers on the board, Brown has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection in both the FantasyLabs projections and the projections from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders.
Brown has the highest strikeout prediction and the lowest opponents’ implied run total, and he is also tied for the most Pro Trends on the slate.
The 26-year-old righty has carried the Astros’ banged-up rotation this season with an excellent year, going 9-4 in 20 starts with a 2.57 ERA and 2.99 FIP. He has 144 strikeouts in 119 innings, and he has been almost unhittable at home, where he has held opponents to a .170 batting average with 70 strikeouts in 55 2/3 innings.
Brown has given up three runs or more in each of his last three outings, but he is in a good spot to bounce back and post a strong outing, according to our projections. He faced the Athletics earlier this year and went six innings with just one run allowed, eight strikeouts, and 27.9 DraftKings points.
Brown is averaging 22.7 DraftKings points per start on the year and 24.5 DraftKings points per game at home.
The Athletics should be a good matchup for him as long as he can avoid the red-hot Nick Kurtz ($5,100). Brown brings elite upside and is the top pay-up play to build around on Saturday’s slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Kumar Rocker ($6,100) Texas Rangers (-123) vs. Atlanta Braves
Rocker has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the pitchers on the slate in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections, and he comes at a bargain rate as he takes the mound at home against the Braves. At barely over $6,000, he comes with some risk factors, but he brings plenty of great potential to go along with it.
Rocker had an excellent outing last Saturday in my picks here on FantasyLabs, delivering 25.85 DraftKings points in 6 1/3 innings at home against the Tigers. Rocker still has a scary 5.66 ERA on the year, but last week was a step toward his ERA matching the rest of his metrics. He has a 4.66 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, and 4.13 SIERA.
Outside of a rough outing against the Angels just before the break, he has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last six outings. He earned over 15 DraftKings points in four of those six outings and has posted an impressive 20.4 DraftKings points per start in his five home outings.
At Globe Life Park, Rocker is 3-0 this season with a 1.84 ERA, a .187 batting average against, and 26 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings.
Rocker still has a high ceiling long term, and the 25-year-old righty will look to post another strong outing as he takes on the Braves, who continue to struggle this season, especially on the road. As a team, they have just a .232 road batting average and a .304 road wOBA. Since Rocker has been so good at Globe Life Field, he should be set as a good value option Saturday night.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
George Kirby ($9,000) Seattle Mariners Twins (-151) at Los Angeles Angels
Most of the public is not in on Kirby after the righty gave up four runs in each of his last two outings against the Tigers and the Brewers, earning just 13.85 and 7.9 DraftKings points. He’s struggled with consistency since starting the season late after an injury, but he brings a high enough ceiling to be worth considering for GPP contests.
Kirby is 4-5 in 11 starts with a 4.65 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and 1.13 WHIP. He hasn’t been nearly as reliable as he was in his last two seasons, although his advanced metrics don’t show a huge drop. He looked like he might be finding his footing, with a 2.68 ERA and 2.74 FIP in a span of seven starts before his last two disappointing outings.
One of his most encouraging starts during that stretch was a dominant performance against the Angels. In Anaheim on June 8, he went seven innings and gave up just two runs on two hits with a season-high 14 strikeouts and 42.55 DraftKings points.
Kirby will hope returning to the same matchup can yield similar results on Saturday night, and if he can get that kind of strikeout production, he is a sneaky way to get ace upside at a salary that is much lower than the other aces on the board. His ownership projection is barely 5%, so he comes loaded with leverage potential in his matchup against the Angels, who are second in the majors in K% this year.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Chicago Cubs :
The Cubs face the White Sox in this Windy City rivalry matchup, and they are in a favorable matchup against Aaron Civale ($6,000). There is the potential for some storms in the area, but if the game happens, the Cubs should be poised to produce. Civale has a 4.76 ERA and 5.14 FIP in his 12 starts this season, split between the Brewers and the White Sox. He has served up 10 homers and a 38.6% hard-hit rate on the season, and righties have hit .292 with a .357 wOBA against him.
In the aggregate of the two projections described below, Kyle Tucker has the highest median and ceiling projection of all hitters. Pete Crow-Armstrong has double-digit DraftKings points in three of his last five games, averaging 11.4 DraftKings points per game in that short span.
Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson are on the strong side of the splits against Civale, and Suzuki has gone 2-for-6 with a home run against him in past meetings. After the White Sox hung 12 runs on the Cubs in the series opener, this looks like a spot for the Cubs to bounce back with a big night of their own.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries- you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
3B Royce Lewis ($3,000) Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals (Mitchell Parker)
Lewis has had another tough season with injuries and lower overall production than he had when healthy in previous seasons. However, he has picked up his production since the All-Star Break, and he could be primed for a big second half if he avoids the injured list.
Over his last five games, Lewis is 8-for-18 (.444) with three doubles, three home runs, six RBIs, and a 66.7% hard-hit rate. He has been more productive since returning from his most recent injury on July 1, hitting .295 with a .364 wOBA in his 18 games since returning.
In the aggregate projections, Lewis has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate. He and the Twins are in a good matchup against Mitchell Parker, and here’s how they look in our Plate IQ tool:
1B Miguel Vargas ($3,100) Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs (Cade Horton)
Vargas has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players on the slate and the highest of all first basemen. He and the White Sox are surging a little bit lately and have scored more runs in the last two weeks than any other team in the majors, averaging 7.6 runs per game in their last nine contests with 15 homers and a league-leading .363 wOBA.
Vargas has led the way for the White Sox, going 10-for-25 (.400) over the last six games, with three doubles, two homers, and a .513 wOBA. He has double-digit DraftKings points in five of his last six games and has averaged 14.0 DraftKings points per contest over that short stretch.
On the season, Vargas has hit 10 of his 12 homers against right-handed pitchers like he’ll face in Horton. He has a .319 wOBA and 103 wRC+ in the split, and he is in a good place to return value if he keeps crushing it like he has in the White Sox’s last few series.
OF Jordan Walker ($2,500) St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres (Randy Vasquez)
Walker has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders on the board at his bargain salary of just $2,500 in a good matchup at home against Vasquez. The weather forecast in St. Louis is very homer friendly, with winds blowing out in hot, humid conditions. There could be some rain, but as long as the game plays, Walker should be a good bargain value to consider.
The 23-year-old righty still has lots of potential even though he has been streaky throughout his time in the majors. He missed about a month after dealing with appendicitis, but he has looked strong since returning after the All-Star Break. He made some tweaks to his batting stance, and so far, it seems to have produced good results.
In his eight games since returning, he is 9-for-30 (.300) with four doubles, a .339 wOBA, and a 57.1% hard-hit rate. He has an average exit velocity of 93.3 miles per hour in his 21 batted-ball events since returning, and if he keeps mashing, his results will likely improve. In such a good environment, he brings a very high ceiling at this very affordable salary.
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