The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Sonny Gray ($9,800) St. Louis Cardinals (-119) at Arizona Diamondbacks
On Saturday’s juicy nine-game slate, Gray has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection on the board in both the FantasyLabs projections and the projections from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders.
It’s not an ideal environment or matchup, but the veteran righty has the third-highest strikeout prediction and third-lowest opponents’ implied run total on the board this Saturday.
Gray went into the break on a nice roll, running his record to 9-3 on the season by giving up two runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts. He threw a complete-game shutout during that span against the Guardians, allowing just one hit and racking up 11 strikeouts to earn a massive 50.65 DraftKings points.
His most recent start was cut short by a rain delay, but normally, he works deep enough into games to be a solid option to build around. He has 12+ DraftKings points in five straight and nine of his last 10, averaging 22.0 DraftKings points per start. In those 10 starts, he has racked up 67 strikeouts in 58 innings, including three games with double-digit strikeouts, two of which came on the road.
Since the matchups for the top arms on the slate are all a little tricky, Gray is the top stud available. He faced Arizona earlier this year and had 12.1 DraftKings points in a no-decision.
Wheeler will go head-to-head with Yu Darvish ($7,200), who is making just his second start of the year, so Wheeler should have a good shot to grab his 10th win of the season before heading into the All-Star break.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Kumar Rocker ($6,400) Texas Rangers (-115) vs. Detroit Tigers
In contrast to the well-established Gray, Rocker is just settling in at the major league level, but he brings good value potential Saturday against the Tigers, who have slumped a little bit lately.
Rocker is just 3-4 with an ugly 6.39 ERA this season, but he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all pitchers on Saturday’s slate in THE BAT X projections and the second-highest in the FantasyLabs projections. His metrics show his ERA is a little inflated, since he has a 4.87 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, and 4.11 SIERA.
Before getting smashed in his last start, Rocker was gathering some nice momentum, going 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA, 3.68 FIP, and 20 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings in his previous four starts.
The 25-year-old righty has good long-term upside after finishing last year as the team’s No. 6 overall prospect. He has been especially solid at home this year, with a 2.35 ERA, a 2.34 FIP, a .218 batting average against, and 21 strikeouts in 23 innings at Globe Life Field. He has averaged 19.0 DraftKings points in his four home starts this season.
The Tigers are a fierce matchup with the most wins in the American League, but they have dropped five straight dating back to before the break, and they have only scored 17 runs (3.4 runs per game) over that stretch. They’re not an easy matchup, for sure, but neither are they one to avoid at all costs.
Rocker’s salary is so low and his home record so strong that he’s a good value option to take a flier on this Saturday night.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Zebby Matthews ($7,400) Minnesota Twins (-187) at Colorado Rockies
For GPP, we’re willing to take a little more risk for a higher ceiling, and Matthews is a great example of both of those aspects as he makes his return from the injured list on Saturday night. He’s a good bargain under $7,500 and could be the key to unlocking the salary you need at other spots.
The risk with Matthews is pretty obvious. He’s pitching at Coors Field, where the rarified air turns fly balls into home runs and results in plenty of high-scoring games. He also has a 5.21 ERA in his four MLB starts this season, so he hasn’t exactly been lights out.
However, his advanced stats show that he has pitched better than that ERA indicates. He has a 3.08 FIP and 3.39 SIERA. He’s also dominated at Triple-A with a 2-1 record, 1.72 ERA, 2.05 FIP and 1.09 WHIP in eight minor league starts. He started a rehab game last Sunday and went four shutout innings, allowing just one hit and striking out nine of the 13 batters he faced.
Matthews’ elite strikeout potential is what gives him such a high ceiling. He has a 30.1% K% through 19 innings in the majors this season. He had over 17 DraftKings points in each of his last three starts with 20 strikeouts in 16 innings, but then he landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain.
In his return, he’ll have a great matchup against the strikeout-prone Rockies, and he could end up with enough strikeouts to compensate for any damage done by the Coors Field effect.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
The Twins are at Coors Field in a juicy elevation-boosted matchup against Antonio Senzatela ($4,500). The weather will be hot with the wind blowing out, so there should be plenty of runs on the board. Senzatela has been crushable at home and on the road, posting a 6.60 ERA and 5.04 FIP in 19 starts. He has lost three straight starts, giving up 12 runs in 15 innings along with four home runs.
Buxton is the clear top option in the Twins lineup, and he has the top ceiling, median, and floor projection of all hitters on Saturday’s slate. He is averaging 13.4 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 games after dropping 22 in the series opener on Friday.
Lewis and Correa rank No. 2 and No. 3 of all hitters in Projected Plus/Minus on Saturday, and Jeffers and Castro bring plenty of power potential as well. Castro homered and had 18 fantasy points on Friday and is averaging 9.0 fantasy points per game over his last 10. Koby Clemens ($3,800) could also be a great value play to mix in if he gets the start.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Giancarlo Stanton ($3,500) New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves (Joey Wentz)
Stanton didn’t start the first game after the All-Star break but did have a pinch-hit, two-RBI double off the bench to still finish with nine fantasy points. He should be back in the starting lineup against lefty Joey Wentz on Saturday. Wentz was just claimed by the Braves off waivers from the Twins and may not be fully stretched out, but he’ll be a solid matchup for Stanton to start with on Saturday.
Since being activated in mid-June after missing time with injuries to both elbows, Stanton has been very productive for the Yankees, hitting .257 with four homers, a 1.102 OPS and 6.9 fantasy points per game.
Over his last 10 games, Stanton is hitting .276 with a .457 wOBA, a 63.2% hard-hit rate, and an average exit velocity of 94.8 miles per hour.
Stanton and the Yankees look good in this matchup at Truist Park against Wentz. Here’s how they stack up using our Plate IQ tool:
2B/OF Angel Martinez ($2,800) Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics (Luis Severino)
Martinez has been a great value play for the Guardians, and the 23-year-old switch-hitter can slot in at either the keystone spot or in the outfield depending on the rest of your roster construction. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders under $3,000 in the aggregate projections and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all second basemen as well.
He went 2-for-5 with a double and 12 DraftKings points on Friday to start this series, and he has hit .282 (11-for-32) over his last 10 games with six doubles, three homers, one stolen base, and an average of 10.5 fantasy points per game.
All his extra-base hits should keep him in the lineup against both lefties and righties for as long as Lane Thomas (foot) is sidelined, and he’s showing a lot of upside compared to the rest of the Guardians, who have been very inconsistent over the last few weeks.
1B Andrew Vaughn ($2,700) Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers (Emmet Sheehan)
Another bargain option that stands out in the aggregate projections is Andrew Vaughn, who has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all first basemen behind only Paul Goldschmidt ($3,700), who you can see in the Yankees’ lineup above.
Vaughn is looking like a great pickup for the Brew Crew, who acquired him from the White Sox in exchange for Aaron Civale earlier this year. Vaughn hit well in Triple-A and has gone 6-for-17 (.353) in his six games since his promotion to the majors. Two of those six hits have been doubles and two more have been home runs, helping him average 11.3 fantasy points per game over that stretch.
Vaughn and the Brewers take on Sheehan, who has been limited in his return from injury this season. He got the win in relief of Shohei Ohtani last week, but he is expected to serve as the traditional starter on Saturday. The Brewers got a nice 2-0 win on Friday to extend their winning streak to eight straight, and they’ll look to tack on another victory in the last game on Saturday’s schedule.
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Pictured: Sonny Gray
Photo Credit: Getty Images
