The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Zack Wheeler ($10,200) Philadelphia Phillies (-161) at San Diego Padres
On Saturday’s small four-game slate, Wheeler has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection on the board in the FantasyLabs projections, along with the second-lowest opponent implied run total and the highest strikeout prediction.
Wheeler also matches more Pro Trends than any other starting pitcher on the board for this Saturday, and he has a relatively favorable matchup on the road at pitcher-friendly Petco Park against the Padres.
Wheeler is 9-3 on the season with a 2.17 ERA, 2.49 FIP, and 11.5 K/9. All three of those marks would be new career bests for the 35-year-old righty, who has been pitching at a Cy Young level most of the season.
He has allowed zero or one run in six straight starts and in nine of his last 10 games. Just two starts ago, he faced the Padres in Philadelphia and spun eight shutout innings with six hits allowed, 10 strikeouts, and 37.8 DraftKings points. He has over 23 DraftKings points in each of his last six starts, averaging 31.5 DraftKings points per game.
Wheeler will go head-to-head with Yu Darvish ($7,200), who is making just his second start of the year, so Wheeler should have a good shot to grab his 10th win of the season before heading into the All-Star break.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Kevin Gausman ($8,300) Toronto Blue Jays (-151) at Athletics
Even though he’ll be in a much less pitcher-friendly park than Wheeler, Gausman is in a good spot to return value this Saturday. The veteran righty has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the board in Saturday’s projections, and only the Phillies are heavier favorites than his Blue Jays, who have soared to the top of the AL East.
Gausman had a few shaky outings early in June but has settled down and allowed just four runs total over his last three starts. In his last road outing, he went eight shutout innings against the Guardians with six strikeouts for 31.6 DraftKings points. His strikeout production was even better in his most recent outing, as he picked up nine strikeouts and 20.75 DraftKings points against the Angels.
On the road this season, Gausman has held opponents to a .198 batting average and has posted a 3.49 FIP. Sutter Health Park is a homer-friendly venue, but Gausman should be able to pitch around too much damage since he usually limits traffic on the bases.
He faced the Athletics earlier this season in Toronto and had seven strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings. He only had 12.5 DraftKings points in that outing, but his strong recent form is enough to make him a good pick to improve on those numbers and return great value Saturday night.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Zac Gallen ($7,000) Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) at Los Angeles Angels
Gallen has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in both the FantasyLabs projections and the projections from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. He’s definitely a high risk given his roller-coaster season so far, but he does bring great upside at this salary, making him a solid option for GPP lineups.
Over the past few seasons, Gallen has been very reliable for fantasy, but this season, he is 7-9 with a 5.15 ERA and 4.76 FIP, which are huge increases from last year’s 3.65 ERA and 3.38 FIP. Gallen has given up a 48% hard-hit rate and 11.9% barrel rate, while serving up 20 homers in 19 games.
So why would we trust his upside on Saturday? Glad you asked! He’s coming off a great game against the Giants in his last outing, allowing just one earned run in seven innings and striking out 10 while not handing out a single free pass. He earned 34.75 DraftKings points for that outing, his highest mark since April 2, when he dominated the Yankees and earned 43.2 DraftKings points.
With such a high ceiling, Gallen is worth a look against the Angels, who rank second in K% in the majors and in the bottom five in batting average. He brings a very high ceiling if he can build on his momentum from his last start and return to form heading into the second half of the season.
Gallen is definitely a high-risk play on Saturday, but he brings a high enough ceiling to be a GPP option to consider at what could end up being a bargain salary.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays have won 13 of their last 15 games and have taken over the top spot in the AL East ahead of the Yankees and the surging Red Sox. On Saturday night, they’ll be in hitter-happy Sutter Health Park against lefty Jacob Lopez ($6,800). Lopez gave up four runs in 4 1/3 innings in his last start and has a 4.26 ERA, 4.21 FIP, and 1.42 HR/9 coming into Saturday’s start.
Righties have hit seven of the eight homers against Lopez this year while posting a .341 wOBA. All five hitters in the top stack highlighted will be on the strong side of those platoon splits against Lopez on Saturday.
Springer has been one of the team’s hottest hitters, averaging 14.7 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 contests, while Bichette has settled nicely into the No. 4 spot and produced at least nine fantasy points in five straight after going 2-for-5 with a double on Friday. If Clement hits leadoff as projected, he’ll be a great value spot to start this stack since he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the board.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
2B Ketel Marte ($5,800) Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels (Yusei Kikuchi)
Marte has the second-highest ceiling projection of all hitters on Saturday’s slate behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Marte has a good matchup against Kikuchi and should be set to produce as a strong piece to build around Saturday night.
This season, the veteran 2B has hit .260 with four homers and a .360 wOBA against lefties, and he’s been even better on the road, with a .336 batting average and .465 wOBA away from Chase Field.
Marte had two hits on Friday night in Arizona’s loss and has had eight multi-hit games in his last 20 while hitting .329 with a .429 wOBA, 46.9% hard-hit rate, and 21.9% barrel rate. He’s consistently producing and brings a very high ceiling against Kikuchi, whom he is 3-for-11 against in the past, with a home run and four RBIs.
2B/OF Davis Schneider ($2,900) Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics (Jacob Lopez)
In addition to Clement and the stack above, Schneider is an excellent value play to consider against Lopez at Sutter Health Park. Schneider has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 2B on the slate and the fifth highest of all outfielders.
He has been part of the Blue Jays’ outfield rotation and has primarily played against lefties. Since coming back from Buffalo on June 1, Schneider is hitting .259 with four homers and a .373 wOBA in his 22 games.
He’s a good way to get a piece of the Blue Jays’ lineup for under $3,000. Here’s what the full Toronto lineup looks like against Lopez in our Plate IQ tool:
3B/SS Max Muncy ($3,100) Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman)
Another nice low-cost option that stands out in the aggregate projections as a good value with versatility this Saturday is the Athletics’ Max Muncy. Muncy has averaged 9.8 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 contests, hitting .308 with four homers and a .428 wOBA. He hit safely in eight of those 10 games, offering steady production from the middle of a productive lineup.
Muncy has slightly stronger splits at home and against righties on the season, so getting him against Gausman should make him a solid value at home at Sutter Health Park. Muncy continues to fill in for Jacob Wilson (hand), who has missed the last three games, but his long-term role is in question since the return of Zack Gelof ($3,200) from injury.
Since Muncy is still only 22 years old, he’s a little ahead of his expected schedule, so he could end up back at Triple-A for regular playing time the rest of this season. For now, he continues to make the most of his opportunities, and he’ll be a good value play if he gets another start on Saturday.
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