The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Freddy Peralta ($10,200) Milwaukee Brewers (-137) vs. San Francisco Giants
With nine games on the main MLB DFS slate this Saturday, several strong starting pitchers are on the board. Two of the top options go head-to-head as the Brewers face the Giants and Freddy Peralta takes on Logan Webb. Peralta has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections on the board in the FantasyLabs projections.
Peralta is tied with George Kirby for matching the most Pro Trends on the board as well. He also edges out Kirby for the highest strikeout prediction.
Part of Peralta’s potential upside is his great matchup against the Giants, who have scored the fewest runs in the majors over the last month. As a team, the Giants are hitting just .225 over the last month with a .294 team wOBA and an average of only 3.4 runs per game.
Peralta has been on fire for the Brew Crew as well during their recent surge and has a 2.54 ERA, 3.24 FIP, and 10.15 K/9 in his nine starts since July 1. Peralta had at least six strikeouts in each of his last three outings and has racked up 56 strikeouts in 49 2/3 innings over those last nine starts.
He allowed a total of just one run in 17 innings over his last three starts and has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his nine starts since July 1.
Even in a tough head-to-head matchup with Logan Webb, Peralta has a good chance to rack up enough fantasy points to be an excellent play at home against the Giants.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jack Leiter ($6,600) Texas Rangers (-128) vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Rangers and Guardians meet at Globe Life Field on Saturday night, and in that matchup, Leiter has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 18 starting pitchers on the board in both the FantasyLabs projections and the projections from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders.
The 25-year-old Leiter has put together a solid rookie year for the Rangers, going 7-7 in his 22 starts with a 4.06 ERA and 4.62 FIP. He has been even better at home, posting a 3.85 ERA and 4.52 FIP, and he has averaged 13.9 DraftKings points per game in his 12 home outings.
Leiter has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 straight games with 52 strikeouts in 47 1/3 innings over that span. He only lasted 3 2/3 innings in his last start, which was on the road against the Royals, but he’ll look to bounce back at home against Cleveland.
The flame-throwing righty needs to improve his control and limit his walks allowed, but he has a high ceiling against the Guardians, who have scored the third-fewest runs in the majors over the last two weeks, producing just 3.5 runs per game while posting a .299 team wOBA.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Mick Abel ($6,000) Minnesota Twins (-110) at Chicago White Sox
Abel has one of the lowest ownership projections on the board this Saturday, but he brings a very high ceiling as he makes his Twins’ debut, making him a perfect play for GPP lineups. Abel is clearly high-risk, but his upside makes him worth the risk.
The Twins acquired Abel from the Phillies in their trade deadline deal that sent Jhoan Duran to Philadelphia. Abel was awesome early in the year in a few spot starts, but he was knocked around in his two most recent MLB outings. Overall in the majors, he has an unimpressive 5.04 ERA and 6.28 FIP, but he did earn over 15 DraftKings points in two starts earlier this season, highlighted by a ceiling game of 32.5 DraftKings points in his debut against the Pirates.
Abel made three starts in Triple-A for the St. Paul Saints, allowing just three runs in 15 1/3 innings with a total of 23 strikeouts. He had 11 strikeouts and no walks in an outstanding performance last Saturday in Triple-A, and he’ll look to carry over that success to the majors and claim a spot in the rotation for Minnesota the rest of the season.
Abel is far from low-risk, but he comes loaded with enough upside to deserve GPP attention.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs have the highest implied run total on the main slate as they face Victor Mederos ($6,300) and the Angels in Anaheim. Mederos has made two starts for the Angels this season, allowing three runs and a home run in each outing and giving up a total of six runs in nine innings with a 7.00 FIP. Righties have hit .320 against him on the season, while lefties have hit both of the homers he has allowed and have posted a .446 wOBA.
The Cubs come loaded with lefties at the top of the order, with Busch, Tucker and Crow-Armstrong all bringing very high ceilings. Tucker homered on Friday night as he continues to try and shake off his recent slump, and Crow-Armstrong also went yard on Friday, giving him an impressive 28 homers on the year. Busch has hit safely in five straight games and comes in with the most momentum of the three core lefties.
To round out the stack, Kelly and Suzuki bring plenty of pop from the right-hand side of the splits as well. Dansby Swanson ($3,700) and the versatile Willi Castro ($3,300) can also be mixed in for value and variety.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
1B/3B Miguel Vargas ($3,100) Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (Mick Abel)
Vargas has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate in the aggregate projections as he takes on Abel and the Twins. The White Sox offense has been much better over the last month, and Vargas has emerged as a legitimate fantasy value on most slates, especially now that he has dual eligibility at both corner infield spots.
Vargas is hitting .230 on the season, but he has been much better, hitting .276 since the All-Star Break with a .348 wBOBA. He has 24 hits, three homers, 19 runs scored, and 12 RBI in those 22 games.
He typically hits near the top of the order and brings a very high ceiling for a player with a salary just over $3,000.
OF Jeremiah Jackson ($2,500) Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros (Cristian Javier)
Jackson is projected to hit second for the Orioles as they take on the Astros on Saturday night. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players under $3,000 on this slate and the highest of all outfielders in that price range.
Jackson started the season at Double-A after signing as a minor league free agent with the Orioles. The 25-year-old outfielder hit .313 overall in the minors with 15 homers and 11 stolen bases. He hit a scalding .377 in his 40 games at Triple-A with a .461 wOBA.
He joined the Orioles on August 1, and since then, he has hit .327 with two doubles, two triples, and a .335 wOBA. He has four games with multiple hits in his last five starts, and he has at least 14 DraftKings points in two of those games.
While his long-term role on the team is uncertain, he’s hot enough right now to be an excellent bargain play as the O’s take on Javier. Here’s how the rest of the Orioles stack up in this favorable spot at Oriole Park at Camden Yards with the wind blowing out according to our Plate IQ tool:
SS Brooks Lee ($3,000) Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (Davis Martin)
Lee is another great value to consider at only $3,000 if going cheap at shortstop works best for your lineup construction. Lee has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight games and has hit safely in eight of his last nine contests.
In those nine games, Lee is hitting .323 (10-for-31) with three doubles, a triple, and two home runs. He has a .463 wOBA over that span and is doing a great job getting on base and scoring runs in a key role in the Twins’ new-look lineup.
Lee is still just 24 years old and is a key part of the Twins’ next wave of talent. He makes a lot of sense on this slate while he’s so cheap, especially with the wind blowing out at Rate Field in a favorable matchup against Davis Martin.
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