The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Zack Wheeler ($10,700) Philadelphia Phillies (-104) vs. Detroit Tigers
This Saturday’s slate is unique, with the MLB Speedway Classic the only game in prime time. As a result, the main MLB DFS slate begins at 4:05 p.m. ET. The seven games on the board include a dream matchup between Tarik Skubal ($11,700) and Wheeler, who are each contenders for the Cy Young Award in their respective leagues. They rank No. 1 and No. 2 in median, ceiling, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs projections and the projections from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. The FantasyLabs projections give Wheeler a slight edge, while THE BAT X leans towards Skubal.
I’m taking Wheeler since he comes $1,000 cheaper and brings the highest strikeout prediction on the slate. Both aces have been excellent all season and should be able to post great totals in this showdown.
Wheeler has a 2.56 ERA, 2.70 FIP, and a career-high 11.6 K/9 so far this season while going 9-4 and averaging 25.3 DraftKings points per game. At home, he has averaged 28.8 DraftKings points per start while going 6-1 with 98 strikeouts in 72 innings. Even though he gave up multiple runs in each of his last three outings, he has still recorded 8+ punch outs in six of his last seven.
While the Tigers have been excellent this year, the team’s offense has slumped a little bit lately. Over the last 30 days, they rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in runs scored and have the third-lowest wOBA while also posting the second-highest K%.
Wheeler vs. Skubal is a win for baseball fans in general and should be a great matchup, and either one can be a stud to anchor your lineup Saturday afternoon.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Tanner Bibee ($7,500) Cleveland Guardians (-182) vs. Minnesota Twins
Bibee has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the pitchers on the slate in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in THE BAT X projections. The 26-year-old righty comes at a very affordable salary with a good ceiling against the Twins, who traded away several key pieces of the lineup at the trade deadline, making them a very favorable matchup, especially since the game is in Cleveland.
Bibee is 7-9 in his 21 starts this season, with a 4.39 ERA and 4.47 FIP. He has done a good job limiting hard contact overall, but his results have been inconsistent. While he has allowed multiple runs in each of his last 10 starts, he has compensated with 57 strikeouts in 58 innings to still average 15.3 DraftKings points per game over that span. He has exceeded that average in three straight and five of his last seven.
On the season, Bibee has also averaged 17.5 DraftKings points per game in his eight home starts. He faced the Twins in one of those starts and posted 20.75 DraftKings points in a no-decision after allowing just one run on five hits in seven innings.
With the Twins’ lineup depleted by trade, Bibee should be able to deliver value on Saturday afternoon for the Guardians. Cleveland is eight games behind the Tigers for the division lead but just three games out of the AL Wild Card.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Brandon Woodruff ($10,200) Milwaukee Brewers (-187) at Washington Nationals
While everyone is locked in on Wheeler vs. Skubal for obvious reasons, Woodruff could be a very sneaky leverage play since his ownership projection is significantly lower than both of those aces, and he has a more favorable matchup, as his Brew Crew visits the Nationals.
Woodruff’s comeback after missing all of 2024 has been impressive, and the 32-year-old righty has averaged 24.0 DraftKings points per contest since his return. He has 29 strikeouts in his 22 1/3 innings while compiling a 2.01 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. He’s still not quite ramped up to 100 pitches yet, but he has been able to get through six innings in three of his four starts.
The only time he didn’t get through six innings was in his previous start against the Nationals. He only went 4 1/3 innings but racked up a season-high 10 strikeouts in that outing and finished with 22.75 DraftKings points, coming up just short of qualifying for the win.
Woodruff showed his high ceiling with 30.3 DraftKings points against the Marlins in his first start back and has the even higher strikeout ceiling he showed against Washington. The Nationals rank in the top 10 teams in the majors in K% over the last two weeks and have averaged 4.4 runs per game with just a .309 wOBA. They are a better matchup than either the Phillies or Tigers, so if you are looking for a pivot from the two aces, Woodruff can be a GPP play that makes a lot of sense.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox walked off winners over the Astros on Friday night and are in a smash spot Saturday against lefty Colton Gordon ($6,400). Gordon has been one of the Astros’ many fill-in starting pitchers due to injury, and the 26-year-old has a 4.74 ERA and 4.65 FIP in 13 games. He has given up a 10% barrel rate and 13 home runs, while allowing righties to post a .379 wOBA with 12 of those dingers.
The Red Sox will likely go righty-heavy in their lineup. Refsnyder and Gonzalez both have high ceilings in this matchup, while former Astro Alex Bregman also could bring a little extra juice against his former team. He went 2-for-4 with six fantasy points Friday and is averaging 9.8 DraftKings points per game over his last 10.
Roman Anthony was last night’s hero and has 8+ DraftKings points in five straight, while averaging 8.9 DraftKings points over his last 10 games.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries- you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
2B/OF Jose Altuve ($4,900) Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox (Walker Buehler)
While Bregman has the highest median projection of all hitters in the aggregate projections, Altuve has the highest ceiling projection of all hitters. He and the Astros will face Walker Buehler, who is 6-6 with a 5.72 ERA and 5.77 FIP in his 18 starts with Boston this year.
Altuve hit leadoff on Wednesday against Washington but returned to the second spot in the order on Friday with Jeremy Pena ($4,400) returning from the injured list. Unfortunately, Pena left the game with a hamstring cramp, so his availability is uncertain for this matchup.
Whether he hits first or second in the order, Altuve brings a high ceiling after hitting a blistering .351 over his last 25 games since July 1. He has five homers, seven doubles, and a triple during that time with a .432 wOBA.
1B Andrew Vaughn ($2,900) Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)
Vaughn has been outstanding since joining the Brewers. He was traded by the White Sox to Milwaukee in exchange for Aaron Civale, who starts on Saturday night for Chicago. Vaughn played at Triple-A with the Nashville Sounds for a while but has caught fire since his promotion to the Brew Crew.
In his 17 games since the promotion, he has gone 22-for-57 (.386) with four doubles, six homers, 24 RBIs, and a .500 wOBA. His production hasn’t been fluky either, since he has a 58.0% hard-hit rate and 18.0% barrel rate over that span as well. He homered on Friday to start the series and has nine of his 11 homers this season against righties like Jake Irvin.
In the aggregate projections, Vaughn has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the second-highest Points/Salary of all hitters. Here’s how he and the Brewers stack up against Irvin according to our Plate IQ tool:
1B/OF Troy Johnston ($2,000) Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees (Cam Schlittler)
Johnston made his MLB debut earlier this week, and he’s still available at the minimum salary for Saturday’s matchup against the Yankees and his fellow rookie Cam Schlittler. Johnston has the highest Points/Salary of all players on the board and the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders.
In 2023, he flashed a high ceiling while splitting between Double-A Pensacola and Triple-A Jacksonville, hitting .307 with 26 HRs and 116 RBIs. He slowed down a little bit since then and hit .252 this year for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, with 12 homers, 31 stolen bases, and a .345 wOBA.
In his first two MLB games, he went 1-for-5 with a double. He has enough power and speed upside to be a good value play at the minimum salary, and he can save you cap space for other spots while bringing good upside himself.
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