The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Max Fried ($10,200) New York Yankees (-149) at St. Louis Cardinals
This Saturday’s nine-game main MLB DFS slate begins at 7:10 p.m. ET and includes several exciting matchups that are part of MLB’s Players’ Weekend. Of the 18 starting pitchers on the board, Fried has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in both the FantasyLabs projections and the projections from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders.
Fried has struggled in his last few starts, but he should be set up for a bounce-back outing on the road against the struggling Cardinals. Fried has a solid 12-5 record in his 24 starts for the Yankees with a 2.94 ERA and 3.17 FIP. He has a 6.00 ERA and 4.33 FIP over his last seven outings, but he still has solid numbers for the year since he was so good early.
Fried has dominated the Cardinals in his career, going 5-0 in six games against St. Louis with a sparkling 1.10 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. The Cardinals come into this matchup scuffling at the plate. They have scored the fewest runs in the majors over the last 30 days, hitting .239 as a team with a .293 wOBA.
Fried has a high ceiling if he can bounce back, but he’s also a high-risk pick given how hittable he has been lately. The matchup is strong enough to make him the top stud play on a slate that is filled with shaky pitching options in general.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Zebby Matthews ($6,700) Minnesota Twins (-105) vs. Detroit Tigers
Matthews has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the pitchers on the slate in both sets of projections for Saturday night. He comes at a very affordable salary and has a high ceiling due to his strikeout potential.
The 25-year-old Matthews is 3-4 in his nine starts this season but has racked up 57 strikeouts in 44 innings with a 30% K%. His elevated 5.11 ERA stems from too much hard contact at this point in his career. However, his elite strikeout stuff gives him a high enough ceiling to overcome his runs allowed and still help him return good fantasy value. For example, in his last start, he gave up three solo home runs in five innings and took the loss, but his nine strikeouts still gave him 20.55 DraftKings points.
That total gave him over 20 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts, including a season-high 30.3 DraftKings points in his best start of the year, which was a six-inning start against the Nats. Since returning from the injured list on July 19, he has 32 strikeouts in 25 innings but also has a 5.04 ERA and 3.51 FIP.
The Tigers still have one of the best records in baseball, but they have struggled on offense over the last month, hitting just .240 as a team with the third-highest K% in the majors and an average of 4.2 runs per game, which puts them in the bottom 10 in the majors over that span.
Matthews should be able to pick up enough strikeouts to be a solid value play, and if he also limits the damage against him, he has an extremely high ceiling.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Blake Snell ($9,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-145) vs. San Diego Padres Washington Nationals
Snell provides the second-highest Leverage on the slate since his ownership projection is the seventh-highest of the 18 pitchers on the slate for Saturday night. He does have a tough matchup against his former team, the Padres, but he also has flashed excellent form. The matchup makes him volatile, but his form gives him a high ceiling. If you’re swinging for the fences in your GPP lineup, his upside is worth the risk.
In his first season with the Dodgers, Snell has been limited to just four starts and 19 innings. He has been effective with a 2.37 ERA and 3.90 FIP in those four starts and is coming off his best start of the year. Last Saturday, he threw five scoreless innings against the Blue Jays with 10 strikeouts and 31.65 DraftKings points.
Snell has over 18 DraftKings points in each of his two games since returning from left shoulder inflammation, and he will take the mound for the Dodgers on Saturday night against the Padres. The Dodgers won the first game of this huge NL West series to move back into a tie with San Diego at the top of the division at 69-53.
With the division lead on the line, Snell could be set up to step up with a big game on the big stage, bringing your team big-time upside. The Padres have been playing well, though, and they typically limit their strikeouts, so Snell is a boom-or-bust play in this awesome Saturday night showdown.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks have the highest implied run total on the slate since they’re taking on the Rockies at Coors Field. They’ve split the first two games of the series with their division rivals, and they’ll look to take the third game in the four-game set against Chase Dollander ($5,000). Dollander is 2-9 in his 16 starts in the majors and has shown the electric stuff that makes him a top prospect. He’s been inconsistent, though, which has resulted in a 6.35 ERA, 5.76 FIP, and 15 homers allowed in 16 starts. At Coors, he has a 9.37 ERA and has allowed 37 runs on 46 hits including nine homers in just 32 2/3 innings.
All good D-Backs stacks start with Carroll and Marte in the heart of the order. Carroll has averaged 11.4 DraftKings points over his last 13 games and 12.5 DraftKings points in his eight games this season against the Rockies. Marte has averaged 12.2 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 contests and 14.5 fantasy points per game against the Rockies.
Perdomo has been excellent in the lead-off spot, with double-digit DraftKings points in six straight games before going 0-for-4 on Friday. Gurriel and Tyler Locklear ($4,000) are also power-dependent plays that make sense.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Michael Harris II ($3,400) Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians (Slade Cecconi)
Harris has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters in the aggregate projections, and he comes into Saturday’s matchup in Cleveland red hot after picking up multiple hits in seven straight games.
After a brutal start to the year, Harris has hit a blistering .415 over his last 23 games. He has seven doubles, three triples, two stolen bases, and six home runs during that span for a .495 wOBA and 225 wRC+. In his last seven games, he went 15-for-29 (.517) with three doubles, two stolen bases, and three home runs, helping him average 16.6 DraftKings points per game.
Harris and the Braves beat the Guardians on Friday, and on Saturday, they’ll face Slade Cecconi ($8,700), who has allowed multiple runs in eight straight starts and 19 runs in 30 1/3 innings in his last five outings. Lefties like Harris are hitting .253 with a .327 wOBA off Cecconi this season.
3B Brett Harris ($2,000) Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)
Harris was called up for his season debut on Friday night and went 1-for-3 with a walk, a run scored, and 7.0 DraftKings points. Last year, he struggled in his first taste of the majors, hitting only .146 in 36 games, which is why his salary is so low this time around. With such an affordable price point, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all third basemen on Saturday’s slate.
Harris is an elite defender, and his offense has dramatically improved this year in Triple-A with the Las Vegas Aviators. The 27-year-old hit .282 in his 59 games in Triple-A, with 12 homers, seven stolen bases, and a .380 wOBA. He missed some time earlier this year due to an injury, but now it looks like he’ll get a chance to show he’s ready to contribute in the majors as part of the A’s youth movement.
Since he’s still at the minimum salary, he’s a good way to save some cap space and still get the potential for good production. The A’s should be in a good spot against lefty Tyler Anderson ($6,300) at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, and here’s how they look in our Plate IQ tool:
OF Angel Martinez ($3,200) Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves (Joey Wentz)
Martinez is another great value to consider in the outfield, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the outfielders in play for under $4,000. The 23-year-old switch-hitter has typically batted second in the Guardians’ order between Steven Kwan ($4,000) and Jose Ramirez ($6,200) against lefties, putting him in a premium spot to produce counting stats.
Martinez is hitting .311 against lefties on the year, with five homers and a .381 wOBA. He has added six stolen bases to his 10 homers, so he has the potential to go off for a big game whenever he’s taking on a southpaw.
Joey Wentz ($7,200) has a 5.03 ERA and a 4.11 FIP this season. He has held lefties in check pretty well, but righties are hitting .264 with a .330 wOBA against him, putting Martinez on the strong side of the splits and making him a good value option according to our projections.
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