The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Webb (R) $9,200 San Francisco Giants (-120) at Baltimore Orioles
Saturday’s MLB main slate is a bit light on stud pitching. Only two starters are priced above $8,500, and neither is above $9,200. Most of the arms have at least one flaw, so there is no slam-dunk “stud” to choose from.
Webb is probably the most reliable option. He has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, posting a sub-3.50 ERA in each of the past five years. He also saw a nice uptick in strikeouts last season, averaging a career-best 9.74 per nine innings. That helped result in a sparkling 2.60 FIP.
Unfortunately, Webb is not off to the same start this year. His ERA sits at exactly 5.00 through three starts, while his 4.13 xERA isn’t much better. His strikeout rate is back down to just 19%, putting him in the 35th percentile.
That said, we’re still dealing with small sample sizes. Webb was rocked in his first outing by the Yankees, so it’s going to take some time for his numbers to recover. He’s coming off seven innings of one-run ball in his last outing, and he’s earned the benefit of the doubt with his track record.
Webb gets a decent matchup vs. the Orioles on Saturday. While Baltimore can hit, they also have the potential to strike out in bunches. Their projected lineup has a 29.9% splits-adjusted strikeout rate over the past 12 months, which is the highest mark on Saturday’s slate. It gives Webb the third-highest K Prediction in our MLB Models to go along with the third-best opponent implied team total.
Ultimately, Webb has the highest median and ceiling projections among starting pitchers. He’s always a threat to go deep into a game, which is becoming increasingly rare in 2026.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Emmet Sheehan (R) $7,300 Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) vs. Texas Rangers
The Dodgers keep on rolling. They did not rest on their laurels this offseason despite winning back-to-back World Series, adding more marquee talent to their already elite roster. They’ve started off this season 10-3, so it could be another futile year for the other 29 MLB franchises.
However, the Dodgers are not just a team with a fat wallet. They also have some of the best player development in the league and routinely supplement their roster with homegrown talent. That includes Sheehan. He was outstanding for the Dodgers last year, pitching to a 2.82 ERA, 2.93 FIP, and 10.92 K/9 across 73.1 innings. He hasn’t been the same pitcher through his first two starts this year, but the talent is clearly there.
It’s ultimately hard to find a pitcher of Sheehan’s caliber at a $7,300 price tag, especially when they play for an elite team like the Dodgers. Sheehan is the largest favorite of the day at -190, while his 3.7 opponent implied run total is tied for third. Add in the top K Prediction on the slate, and Sheehan leads all pitchers in projected Plus/Minus. He’s the clear top value at the position.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Kyle Harrison (L) $8,200 Milwaukee Brewers (-180) vs. Washington Nationals
The Brewers added Harrison this offseason, and it appears like they might have staged another coup. He’s posted a 2.61 ERA and 12.19 K/9 through two starts, though his underlying metrics aren’t quite as impressive. Perhaps Harrison will cool off as the year progresses, but he draws an excellent matchup Saturday vs. the Nationals. Their projected lineup has just a .307 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months, which is the third-worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate. The Nats’ 3.5 implied run total is tied for the lowest mark on the main slate, and Harrison trails only Webb in terms of moneyline odds.
Luis Castillo (R) $9,000 Seattle Mariners (-150) vs. Houston Astros
Castillo is ultimately a similar pitcher to Webb. He has a long track record of success, especially when pitching in his friendly home ballpark. No stadium has been kinder to pitchers than T-Mobile Park in Seattle over the past three seasons. Castillo also owns a 2.79 ERA and 10.24 K/9 through two starts this season. The only real issue is the matchup. The Astros rank second in wRC+ vs. right-handers to start the year, and they have a paltry 16.7% strikeout rate in that split. Still, Castillo is getting plenty of love from the oddsmakers, evidenced by his -150 moneyline odds and 3.5 opponent implied run total.
German Marquez (R) $6,400 San Diego Padres (-166) vs. Colorado Rockies
Getting to face the Rockies outside of Coors Field has been a DFS cheat code for years. Their offense is simply not very good, and Marquez knows that firsthand. He spent his first 10 seasons in Colorado before signing with the Padres this offseason. Marquez is not a particularly impressive pitcher, but anyone has the potential to shut down the Rockies at home. They’re 26th in wRC+ vs. right-handers on the road this season, and they boast the eighth-worst strikeout rate in that split.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Another day, another Dodgers’ stack. Los Angeles is going to occupy the top spot on most slates where they’re available. That’s just the nature of the beast. They employ some of the best hitters in the game, and they’re currently leading the league with an average of 6.38 runs per game. They’ve done that despite a relatively poor start from Shohei Ohtani, who is batting “just” .265 with three home runs.
They’ll square off with Jack Leiter on Saturday, who has had an excellent start to his 2026 campaign. The former top prospect owns a 2.45 ERA through his first two starts, and his 2.32 xERA suggests it’s no fluke. His strikeout metrics have been particularly impressive, with his Whiff and K rates both in at least the 95th percentile.
Still, there’s a big difference between shutting down the Reds and Orioles – Leiter’s first two opponents this season – and shutting down the Dodgers. Their top five hitters are all capable of doing serious damage against right-handed pitchers (via Plate IQ):
The Dodgers are implied for 5.0 runs in this contest, which is the top mark on the main slate. The Padres are the only other team above 4.6, so they stand out as the clear top choice. On a slate where saving money at pitcher is pretty doable, loading up on the Dodgers’ bats should be a popular choice.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Mickey Moniak, OF ($3,700) Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (German Marquez)
Moniak owns the top projected Plus/Minus using our blended projection set among hitters on the main slate. He has quietly become a dangerous hitter since landing in Colorado. His numbers are definitely inflated by playing half his games at Coors Field, but he already has three homers in eight games this season.
Moniak won’t have the benefit of Coors Field on Saturday, but the matchup vs. Marquez is still appealing. Marquez has simply not been a good pitcher for quite some time. He owns a 4.50 ERA through two starts with the Padres, and his underlying metrics are downright scary. He ranks in the 15th percentile for hard-hit rate, 19th percentile for groundball rate, and 10th percentile for strikeout rate, so even the Rockies have the potential to get to him.
Corey Seager, SS ($4,300) Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers (Emmet Sheehan)
If you’re not using Sheehan on Saturday, rostering hitters against him is an interesting strategy. Seager stands out as one of the best of the bunch. He’s one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball, and while he’s off to a slow start this season, he did go deep on Friday. His underlying metrics remain elite, so it’s only a matter of time before he starts producing at the dish.
Cal Raleigh, C ($5,300) Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros (Lance McCullers)
Getting Raleigh at $5,300 and roughly 6% projected ownership would’ve been pretty unthinkable last year. He rewrote every catcher record in the book, launching 60 homers and finishing second in the AL MVP voting. He even added 14 steals for good measure.
Raleigh has struggled so far this season, but his power production is well-documented. Before last year’s eruption, he had at least 30 homers in the previous two seasons. Eventually, he’s going to start launching baseballs again.
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Pictured: Logan Webb
Photo Credit: Imagn
