The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Michael King ($9,500) San Diego Padres (-227) vs. Los Angeles Angels
While there are two very strong options on the slate tonight, King stands out as the clear best play on paper. He’s taking on an Angels team that is implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs, with the Padres as one of the heaviest favorites on the board.
Los Angeles is a bottom-five offense against righties this season and is even worse with Mike Trout (IL) out of the lineup. Plus, they’re traveling to Petco Park in San Diego, the second-best pitcher’s park in the MLB.
All of which makes King look like a great play before we even discuss his ability. He carries a 2.22 ERA into Monday’s game, with a solid 27% strikeout rate. While his ERA predictors are a bit worse, that’s largely a function of his home park suppressing scoring. Since San Diego is at home today, I’d argue the 2.22 number is a more accurate reflection of his likely performance tonight.
King has the highest median and ceiling projections on the slate while also checking in a touch cheaper than the other top option. As such, his ownership should also be high, but with eight games on the slate, we can get unique elsewhere.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Colin Rea ($6,800) Chicago Cubs (-255) vs. Miami Marlins
The only team with better moneyline odds than the Padres is the Cubs, who host the Marlins at Wrigley Field. We’ve got a classic Wrigley wind game tonight, with double-digit winds blowing straight in from center field that are projected to lower scoring by 11%.
On top of that, Rea is taking on a below-average Marlins team that ranks 24th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, so it would be a strong matchup even without the external factors. Plus, Rea has an impressive 2.43 ERA on the season.
His underlying numbers point to him being even more of a regression candidate than King. However, the conditions and matchup make it likely he stays lucky for at least one more game. Vegas agrees, giving the Marlins just a 3.4-run implied total.
Rea and one of the two top pitchers will likely be a very popular build today. That’s how I’d approach things in cash games, though it might be worth looking in a different direction for GPPs. He leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Paul Skenes ($9,700) Pittsburgh Pirates (+136) at New York Mets
The good news for Skenes this season is that the Pirates have taken the training wheels off in terms of his pitch count. He’s topped 100 pitches in four of his eight starts this season, lasting at least six innings in six of eight.
The bad news is his effectiveness has waned heavily later into games. He has a 0.00 ERA his first time through the order that rises to a still-solid 2.75 his second time facing hitters. However, he has an ugly 8.10 mark when taking on batters for a third time.
Which creates a conundrum for DFS. On the one hand, we want him to last deeper into games so he can accrue more points. The late-inning blowups often have the opposite effect, though. With Skenes’ strikeout rate falling to around 25% this year, that’s made it difficult for him to pay off his slate-leading salaries, limiting his value as a DFS option.
Still, the talent is obviously there, and it’s possible Pittsburgh catches up to the trend and pulls him before his third go-round. He has a tough matchup with the Mets but the ability to perform well regardless, making him a risky but intriguing GPP option.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Texas Rangers:
One strategy I’m interested in tonight is rostering both Skenes and King, with the assumption that their combined salaries will limit much of the field from playing them together.
That’s a lot easier to pull off when we have a Rangers team with a 5.4-run implied total that costs just $19,200 for five hitters.
Texas seemed to break out of their slump this weekend, scoring 16 runs in their last two games against the Tigers. Now they’re back home in a more offensively friendly ballpark and taking on the lowly Rockies.
Colorado is starting Chase Dollander ($6,000). Dollander has a 7.71 ERA through six big league starts. “That’s just because he pitches at Coors!” you might be saying — but no. His (park-adjusted) xERA is 6.36 as well.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Manny Machado 3B ($5,500) San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels (Yusei Kikuchi)
Between the location and the matchup, the Padres-Angels game tonight is expected to be fairly low scoring. LA starter Yusei Kikuchi ($7,100) isn’t all that good — but the Padres lineup is largely worse against southpaws.
That is, except for Machado, who stands out in PlateIQ:
As an added bonus, he fits nicely around the Rangers’ stack, who also provide the salary relief to make affording him easy.
Jonathan India 3B/OF ($3,100) Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (Ryan Gusto)
India isn’t a play we’re going to get excited about, given his .222 batting average and lack of power or speed (one homer and 0 steals on the season). However, he’s got the leadoff spot in the Royals lineup, and they’re implied for four runs tonight.
That, coupled with his positional flexibility and cheap salary, makes him a solid option. He can fit fairly easily around any stack you might want while saving salary for expensive bats or pitchers. Sometimes that’s enough.
Pavin Smith 1B ($4,000) Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (Justin Verlander)
Smith is having a breakout 2025 so far, hitting .313 with a .983 OPS through the first month and a half of the season. His underlying numbers suggest he’s likely to regress a bit, but they’re still fairly solid overall.
Arizona has a solid matchup tonight against 42-year-old Justin Verlander ($7,000), who has a 4.50 ERA and sub-20% strikeout rate coming into the game. That latter part is especially important for the free-swinging Smith, who strikes out nearly 30% of the time.
At a minimum that should help the powerful Smith get some balls in play, given how much JV pitches to contact now. I’m interested in Diamondbacks stacks in general, but Smith is the best value proposition at the top of the lineup.
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Pictured: Michael King
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
