The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Edward Cabrera (R) $8,500 Chicago Cubs (-187) vs. Los Angeles Angels
With most teams yet to roll their rotation over back to the top, there aren’t really any true aces on Monday’s slate. That means “stud” in this instance should be taken with a grain of salt, as the top options are more like solid options than threats to drop 30+ DK points.
With that said, the 27-year-old Cabrera had a career year with the Marlins last season, earning his trade to Chicago. He finished with a 3.53 ERA and 25.8% strikeout rate, both well above-average numbers. The move to Wrigley Field for home games might help him a bit as well, as it’s a slightly more pitcher-friendly environment. Plus, he’ll get the occasional Wrigley weather game to pad some stats.
The reason he stands out today is in large part due to the matchup. While the Angels have started 2026 hot, they projected as one of the worst lineups in baseball coming into the season. While they’ve managed to put up some runs this year, their 27% team strikeout rate is almost identical to last season’s, a figure that led the league.
That gives Cabrera plenty of upside here, and we have his K prediction well above any other arm tonight. Unsurprisingly, that also means he has the best median and ceiling projections, which make him a strong option at his reasonable price tag.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Ryan Weathers (L) $6,300 New York Yankees (-110) at Seattle Mariners
Weathers is the second former Marlin we’re discussing today, as the lefty was also traded away from Miami to a contender in the off-season. While his numbers weren’t as impressive as Cabrera’s last season, he finished with a sub-4.00 ERA through eight starts and a strikeout rate over 20%.
The reason he stands out today is largely thanks to where his game is taking place. With the latest Park Factor data from the MLB, 28 of the 30 MLB stadiums add or subtract less than 4% to the average score. The two exceptions are Coors Field, which adds 13%, and T-Mobile Park in Seattle, which takes away 9%. Effectively, Seattle is the only pitcher’s park that actually matters for DFS.
While the Mariners are a tough matchup, that’s more than outweighed by the ballpark. Plus, Seattle was slightly worse against lefties last season, which is a minor but non-zero boost to Weathers today. These factors don’t seem to be factored into his $6,300 salary, making him an obvious value. He leads the Pts/Sal projection for pitchers today by a wide margin.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Cody Ponce (R) $7,600 Toronto Blue Jays (-275) vs. Colorado Rockies
The only thing better than seeing “at Seattle” at the end of a pitcher’s line is “vs. Colorado.” The Rockies continue to be a dreadful offense, held up only by extremely friendly conditions at home. Now they’re in Toronto to face Ponce, a 31-year-old rookie (technically) who had a 36.2% K-rate last season in Korea. Normally I wouldn’t put much stock in that, but I’m not sure the average KBO hitter is much worse than the batters he’ll face tonight.
Luis Castillo (R) $8,300 Seattle Mariners (-109) vs. New York Yankees
Obviously, two pitchers get to take the mound in Seattle tonight, with Castillo joining Weathers. Castillo’s home/away splits in 2025 paint a drastic picture of T-Mobile Park: At home, he had a 2.60 ERA; on the road, it jumped to 4.71. It’s a tough matchup with the Yankees, but Castillo is an interesting contrarian option.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
There’s a strong case to be made for cramming in as many Toronto players – on both sides of the ball – tonight. They’re massive favorites against the Rockies and are tied for the highest implied total on the slate at 5.5 runs.
The nice thing about stacking Toronto is the presence of cheap hitters that balance out the hefty salaries on Vladimir Guerrero and George Springer. With the other three hitters in their first five checking in at under $4,000 each, it’s reasonably easy to get this Blue Jays stack in.
I always like the opportunity to stack my hitters with one of my pitchers, since there’s some minor correlation gained there. A solid offensive day raises the odds of a pitcher getting the four-point win bonus, which could be crucial in the final DFS standings. We’ve got a great chance to do just that tonight, given the matchup for the Blue Jays.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kevin McGonigle 3B/SS ($3,800) Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks (Michael Soroka)
McGonigle came into the season as a top-five prospect in all of baseball and has immediately lived up to the hype. He’s hitting .417 through his first three big-league games with a 195 wRC+. While that’s obviously not going to continue, this still feels like a good time to get in early on the 21-year-old.
Especially considering tonight’s matchup against Soroka. The Diamondbacks starter has been consistently worse against lefties, as we can see in PlateIQ:
Four of the Tigers’ first six hitters (including McGonigle) are left-handed, making them one of my favorite stacks tonight – but McGonigle is also an excellent one-off play.
Ozzie Albies 2B ($3,900) Atlanta Braves vs. Athletics (Jacob Lopez)
I always wonder why the switch-hitting Albies doesn’t just commit to batting right-handed full-time. Over his career, he’s .327 against lefties (while batting righty) and just .244 against right-handed pitching. It seems like whatever benefit he gets from a better angle on the pitch is more than outweighed by hitting from his weaker side.
That doesn’t matter tonight, though, as he takes on left-handed Jacob Lopez and the A’s. Braves catcher Drake Baldwin ($4,100) also has strong splits against left-handed pitching, and those two are followed by Ronald Acuna ($5,900), who has strong numbers against everybody, making them an interesting mini-stack.
Michael Busch ($5,100) Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Angels (Ryan Johnson)
I mentioned in the stack section about Toronto that they were tied with the Cubs for the highest implied total on the slate, making Chicago another interesting team to roster hitters from. We’ve got the somewhat-rare situation where the weather in Chicago is a huge boost to bats, with WeatherEdge data showing a more than 20% increase in scoring.
Plus, rostering Cubs is another opportunity to stack hitters and pitchers together. Busch is the clear starting point thanks to his .554 slugging percentage against righties last year and his spot atop the Cubs lineup, but there are plenty of strong options.
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Pictured: Edward Cabrera
Photo Credit: Imagn
