The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($10,000) Atlanta Braves (-170) at Milwaukee Brewers
In the follow-up to his 2024 NL Cy Young-winning campaign, Sale has taken just a slight step back. He still has a sub-3.00 ERA and 30% strikeout rate and remains one of the best pitchers in baseball at 36 years old.
He also has one of the best matchups on Monday, taking on a Brewers team that ranks 25th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Milwaukee has a slate-low 3.4 run implied total today.
The downside is that despite their overall struggles, the Brewers don’t strike out at a high rate against lefties. That mildly limits the upside for Sale, but not enough to be concerned. The fact that the lowest total on the board is 3.4 runs also illustrates the struggle in finding points from pitchers, making Sale even stronger relatively.
He leads the slate in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection, making him a strong option in all contest types despite his likely high ownership.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Matthew Boyd ($8,300) Chicago Cubs (+110) at Philadelphia Phillies
The fact that a $10,000 pitcher leading the slate in Pts/Sal projection highlights the difficulty in finding cheaper pitching options today. It also means there’s plenty of offensive production to be had, so we’ll want to save salary somewhere in order to be able to play it.
The best option is probably Boyd, who has a tough matchup today against the Phillies. The hope is that Boyd can overcome the matchup and still score well, which he’s been able to do most of the season. He has a 3.01 ERA and similar underlying metrics, with a solid 24.7% strikeout rate through 12 starts.
Those numbers probably take a slight dip in this matchup, though solid pitching weather helps mitigate that to a degree. If Boyd is able to approach his 18 PPG average at this price tag today, it will likely be enough regardless. He’s somewhat underpriced on DraftKings, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating relative to his FanDuel price.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Zach Wheeler ($10,500) Philadelphia Phillies (-130) vs. Chicago Cubs
The other side of the Phillies/Cubs game is Wheeler, who’s making his return on extended rest after missing a start due to going on the paternity list. Wheeler and the Phillies are slight favorites in this matchup despite the tough opponent, which is a solid sign of how the market views his abilities.
Wheeler has finished four of the last five seasons with an ERA below 3.00 and is on track to do so again. Based on betting odds, he’s a top-three NL Cy Young candidate and shows no signs of slowing down at age 35. Both his swinging strike and strikeout rates are at career-best marks, making him an elite fantasy option.
Deciding between Wheeler and Sale will be crucial on Monday’s slate, with Wheeler projecting just below Sale at a $500 premium. While we have their ownership projections extremely close, my guess is Wheeler will come in lower as something of a “pay up to be contrarian” option.
That makes him my preferred option for GPPs by a narrow margin. Finding a way to jam both into a lineup is also an interesting strategy, though it’s extremely hard to do and still get any hitting upside.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
Arizona’s 5.5-run implied total leads the slate, but they’re priced appropriately for the occasion. Their first five batters cost an average of $5,000, making it hard to afford either Sale or Wheeler — much less both — while stacking them.
Still, they could be worth it. They’re facing Emerson Hancock ($6,400), whose ERA and xERA on the season are both 5.19. That’s with Hancock playing half of his games in the best pitcher’s park in baseball.
This game is in Arizona, a top-ten stadium for hitters with a 59 (50 is average) Park Factor in our models. I want at least some exposure to the Diamondbacks, with my pitching choices dictating how much exposure I can get.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brent Rooker OF ($4,700) Athletics at Los Angeles Angels (Yusei Kikuchi)
The A’s are slightly worse as a team when facing left-handed pitching this season, but Rooker is a notable exception. He’s hitting .347 against southpaws this season, with a 1.152 OPS. We can see some of his numbers in PlateIQ:
As always, his price tag reflects his total performance against lefties and righties, so we’re effectively getting a discount on him for at least the first few at-bats tonight.
Zach Neto SS ($5,300) Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
With the 9.0-run total, Angels-A’s looks like the best game for fantasy production outside of the Diamondbacks stack.
One way to get some leverage from that stack is to pivot from Perdomo to Neto at SS. While it takes an extra $600 in salary, that should keep the ownership on Neto low. Like Rooker, he’s on the strong side of his platoon splits against a lefty starter — though Jeffrey Springs ($6,800) has yet to be officially named so keep an eye on our lineups page.
Neto has a career .314 average against lefties compared to just .230 against righties, so if Springs does get the start, Neto is an interesting option. He brings plenty of upside with both power and speed (10 steals and 10 home runs on the season) as well.
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Pictured: Chris Sale
Photo Credit: Getty Images
