The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert ($9,700) Seattle Mariners (-189) vs. Boston Red Sox
Seattle is at home in the best pitcher’s park in baseball tonight. They’re taking on a Red Sox team that suddenly got a whole lot worse offensively after the surprise trade of Rafael Devers to the Giants last night.
Boston was a slightly above average offense both overall and against righties, but with Alex Bregman on the IL and Devers in San Francisco, they should now be thought of as a plus matchup for pitchers. Which is great news for Gilbert, who was absolutely dominant early in the season before landing on the injured list in late April.
Through six starts this season, Gilbert has a 2.37 ERA and a 37% strikeout rate. Those numbers are pretty clearly unsustainable, but he was a borderline-elite starter in a full season last year. While we should probably temper our expectations for his first start in about 6 weeks, he could easily get there in a shorter outing based on strikeouts.
Gilbert has by far the best Vegas data on the slate, with Boston implied for just 3.1 runs tonight. That’s half a run lower than anybody else. He also leads all pitchers in median and ceiling projection, making him a borderline mandatory play tonight.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Lance McCullers ($8,000) Houston Astros (-161) at Athletics
This is a bit of a buy-low spot for McCullers, who saw his salary hit a high-water mark of $8,500 in his last start. That was partially due to a matchup against the White Sox, and the bump back down is mostly due to his performance. He put up a disappointing 10.45 DraftKings points while allowing four runs through five innings.
Still, he’s been better than that on the whole this season. While his ERA sits at an ugly 4.91 through seven starts, he also has a 28.5% strikeout rate. His ERA predictors point to him being somewhat unlucky, with his SEIRA more than a full run below his ERA.
However, betting on that positive regression tonight is tricky. The A’s temporary stadium in Sacramento trails only Coors Field in terms of boosting scoring — albeit in a small sample size — which typically doesn’t help pitchers lower their ERAs.
With his high strikeout rate, he’s a boom-or-bust option best reserved for GPPs, but he does lead the slate in Pts/Sal Projection.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Clarke Schmidt ($8,700) New York Yankees (-202) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Targeting pitchers against the Angels for GPPS has been a solid strategy this season. Their 26.2% strikeout rate against righties is tied for first in the majors, and they’ve also been a below-average unit in terms of run production with a 96 wRC+.
The lucky pitcher with a shot to take advantage of that is Schmidt, who comes in at a fair price relative to his abilities even before factoring in the matchup. Schmidt has a 3.60 ERA and a strikeout rate over 25%, both solid marks relative to his price point. The weather in New York should also help suppress scoring a bit tonight.
Since we’re projecting him for somewhat lower ownership than Gilbert, that makes Schmidt more of a GPP option, although we’re showing a mostly even distribution between the three starters mentioned here.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Houston Astros:
These are not the Astros of the past few seasons, with many of the top bats from their championship runs having moved on to other teams. However, they’re still a solid lineup, ranking right around league average in wRC+ both overall and against right-handed pitching.
Crucially, they’re playing in Sacramento tonight, which, as we’ve mentioned above, is effectively the Coors Field of the West. The DraftKings pricing algorithm hasn’t quite caught up to that fact, though, with the top-five Astros bats averaging less than $4,000 per player.
Their 5.7-run total comfortably leads the slate, making them an extremely obvious stacking option tonight.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Amed Rosario 3B ($3,600) Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies (Carson Palmquist)
My other favorite team to stack tonight is the Nationals, who also come in with a team total over five tonight against the Rockies. This one is in Washington and not Colorado but has the best hitting weather on the slate — and an elite matchup.
Washington is facing rookie lefty Carson Palmquist ($5,500), who has an ERA of 7.77 through five starts. He probably won’t pitch long enough that platoon splits become super important, but Rosario does stand out against southpaws in PlateIQ:
He’s the starting point for my Nationals stack, but I’m interested in getting exposure to most of their top bats.
Tyler Soderstrom 1B/OF ($4,600) Athletics vs. Houston Astros (Lance McCullers)
This is another slate where a triumvirate of pitchers is dominating ownership, meaning we can create massive leverage by rostering bats against whichever pitcher(s) we don’t use in our lineup.
McCullers is the most likely fade for me, as the little-league stadium the A’s play in makes it tough for pitchers. Plus, Athletics bats can find success against the bullpen even if McCullers has a good game and you’ll still get points from low-owned options.
My favorite bat is Tyler Soderstrom, who is having a breakout 3rd year in the majors. He has an .802 OPS with 14 home runs less than halfway through the season, giving him plenty of upside tonight.
Trent Grisham OF ($4,500) New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels
While I’d love to be able to afford Aaron Judge ($6,500), Grisham is a cheaper way to get some exposure to a Yankees offense implied for 5.1 runs tonight.
Against right-handed pitching, Grisham has the second-best numbers on the team this season, with a .285 ISO and .400 wOBA. To say those numbers rival Judge’s would be a bit of a reach, but he’s not drastically far off.
Plus, he’ll likely get some good pitches to hit with the reigning MVP behind him, as well as plenty of chances to score runs if he gets on base.
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Pictured: Logan Gilbert
Photo Credit: Getty Images
