The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($9,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-189) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tyler Glasnow returned from an extended stint on the IL in early July, turning in three straight strong starts and looking better and better each time. That streak was snapped his last time out, when the Reds chased him from a start in Cincinnati with four runs in four innings. Glasnow looked off in that start, giving up five walks, although three of the four runs scored came on home runs — which is somewhat excusable at Great American Ball Park.
Which makes Glasnow a mildly uncomfortable play on Monday, but still a solid option. Overall, he has a 3.38 ERA and strikeout rate just under 30% on the season. The Cardinals are a roughly league average offense — albeit with a low strikeout rate — against righties, and they have just a 3.5-run implied total.
Assuming Glasnow is able to find the strike zone again, he should be able to get back to his productive ways in this one. Our projections give him a narrow lead in both median and ceiling projections — over a slightly more expensive pitcher. That’s enough to make him a solid starting point for lineups in all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Eric Lauer ($6,300) Toronto Blue Jays (-205) at Colorado Rockies
While we would certainly prefer to roster pitchers against the Rockies when Colorado is on the road, the matchup is good enough that even Coors Field isn’t that strong of a deterrent this year. Especially when the Rockies are facing lefties like Lauer. Colorado has the worst offense in the MLB against right-handed pitching — and are about ten percent worse against lefties.
Plus, Lauer has performed well since transitioning to a starting role. In 11 starts, he has a 3.25 ERA while averaging about five innings per start, with a strikeout rate just over 25%. Those numbers are good enough that he’d be a value at his current price even in a neutral matchup, and this is obviously a much stronger one.
On top of their poor run production, the Rockies also strike out at a top-five rate against southpaws. That gives Lauer solid upside relative to his price tag to go with his overall strong projection. This game being in Colorado means the risk of a blow up is slightly higher than usual, but it’s a risk worth taking at his salary.
I wouldn’t fault anyone for looking elsewhere in cash games due to the increased variance, but for GPPs Lauer is a borderline lock. Especially considering stacking his Blue Jays is expensive, we need to save the salary somewhere. He leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Max Fried ($10,200) New York Yankees (-155) at Texas Rangers
Fried ranks just behind Glasnow in both median and ceiling projection, but unfortunately comes with a slightly higher price tag. Or perhaps fortunately comes with a more expensive price, given that his ownership could be significantly reduced due to the pricing dynamics.
The Yankees southpaw has been rock solid this year, with a 2.62 ERA while averaging over six innings per start. While his 23.1% strikeout rate isn’t anything special, his ability to last deeper into games can make up for that from an upside perspective.
Plus, he has a much better matchup than Glasnow on paper. The Rangers rank 28th in wRC+ against lefties, while striking out at a top five rate. Those are similar numbers to the Rockies, except we don’t have to worry about the Coors Field park factor.
Finding the salary to get from Glasnow to Fried is tricky, but given the matchup and ownership savings it could be extremely worthwhile. He’s my favorite SP1 for GPPs, and I’ll be hunting value elsewhere in an effort to prioritize him.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
With the Blue Jays one of the hottest teams/offenses in baseball over the past month or so and a trip to Coors Field on the schedule this week, get used to seeing them as the top stack.
While their big-name hitters are priced up, it’s actually possible to make a reasonably affordable Jays stack by using #6 hitter Alejandro Kirk instead of #5 hitter Addison Barger, who costs an additional $2,300 in salary.
The thesis for Toronto in general is fairly obvious. They have a slate-high 6.9-run total in the best hitter’s park in baseball, where the weather is unusually favorable to bats — the 88-degree temperature and wind out to left field boosts home runs more than 20% over the Coors average according to Weather Edge.
Plus, rostering the Blue Jays alongside Lauer builds in some extra correlation to lineups. They’ll be hard to avoid tonight.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Rob Refsnyder OF ($3,700) Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Bailey Falter)
With a relatively expensive stack and a desire to spend up at pitcher, I went hunting for some cheap bats to round out my lineups. With the Red Sox implied for 5.4 runs at home, they seemed like a solid place to start.
They’re taking on Royals’ lefty Bailey Falter ($5,800), whose 3.73 ERA hides underlying numbers around 5.00. That’s especially concerning for Falter, since he was traded from Pittsburgh to a much tougher park for pitchers in Kansas City — and an even tougher one in Boston tonight.
Refnsyder has strong numbers against lefties on the season, as we can see in PlateIQ:
Plus, he’s underpriced for his leadoff role in the lineup, making him a solid value option.
Jonathan India 2B ($3,300) Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox (Brayan Bello)
Indi is another option fitting the “underpriced leadoff hitters on a team with a solid total” trope, as his Royals have a 3.3-run implied total tonight in Boston. He gets bonus points since the Royals are on the road, as his team gets a guaranteed ninth trip to the plate.
While India hasn’t been great this year with his .240 batting average, he still profiles as a slight regression candidate. His BABIP is about 20 points below his career mark and his xWOBA is 35 points higher than his actual wOBA. Those aren’t huge discrepancies, but we don’t need many reasons to roster him outside of his salary.
Masyn Winn SS ($3,600) St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow)
Besides fitting the cheap leadoff hitter trope, Winn is an interesting option as a leverage play against Glasnow. With Glasnow likely to be the most popular pitcher on the slate by a decent margin, ownership will be correspondingly low on the Cardinals hitters.
That means points scored by Cardinals bats will be extra valuable, since they not only move you past most of the competition but they also take points away from the slate’s most utilized pitcher. Winn is hitting .270 without much power so he isn’t especially exciting, but he and the Cardinals in general are very intriguing from a leverage standpoint.
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Pictured: George Kirby
Photo Credit: Getty Images
