The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Schwellenbach ($9,500) Atlanta Braves (-190) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Braves recently got back their ace, Spencer Strider, after he missed more than a year due to Tommy John surgery. In the meantime, another Spencer has held down the fort. Schwellenbach has been their de facto #1 starter through the first month, with a 2.55 ERA through four starts.
That’s enough to make him the top option on a condensed Monday slate, with just six games taking place and not many frontline starters. Schwellenbach is a better real-life pitcher than DFS option, thanks to his limited strikeout upside, but we don’t have any truly elite options today anyway.
That 23.4% strikeout rate is nothing special, and the Cardinals are one of the lower strikeout teams offensively. That clearly limits his upside, but we might not see any pitchers top 25 points on the slate anyway.
Schwellenbach also has solid Vegas data, with the Cardinals 3.8 run implied total just 0.1 above the lowest on the slate. He’s a rock-solid, if not particularly exciting, SP1.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Robbie Ray ($7,500) San Francisco Giants (-140) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Robbie Ray has fairly similar Vegas data as Schwellenbach (at least from an opponent run standpoint), a slightly better K prediction, and a price tag $2,000 cheaper. That makes him a pretty obvious value on Monday’s slate, and he leads our models in Pts/Sal projection.
Ray leads all pitchers on Monday’s slate in strikeout rate dating back to the start of 2024 and gets a deceptively solid matchup against the Brewers. Milwaukee is considerably worse against lefties like Ray, with their wRC+ dropping from 104 against righties to 79 against southpaws. While they still don’t strike out at a particularly high clip, Ray has the ability to push the issue in that regard.
Plus, at his bargain price tag, we don’t need a ton of upside for him to pay off. He’s my favorite overall pitching option today by a fairly wide margin, and I’ll be utilizing him in all contest types.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Brown ($9,000) Houston Astros (-135) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Hunter Brown has averaged a bit over 20 DraftKings points over his past two starts, but for some reason is $1,000 cheaper than the last time he took the mound. On a day with no pitcher projected for even 18 points, another 20 from the Wayne State University product would probably be enough to take down some GPPs.
The reason we’re getting the discount on Brown is because of the matchup. Toronto ranks 11th as a team in wRC+, but second in strikeout rate. For a pitcher like Brown, who isn’t a massive strikeout arm to begin with, that makes this an especially difficult matchup in some ways.
However, it does give Brown the chance to eat plenty of innings if he can turn pitching to contact into outs. He’s lasted exactly six innings in all four starts this season, but this is a chance to expand on that number.
Betting on seven or more innings of one- or two-run ball is a bit thin, but that comes with lowered ownership as well. The matchup is tough enough that I’m fading Brown in cash games but will have some exposure in GPPs.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
It’s an odd slate in that there are neither any pitchers with massive projections nor any lineups with huge implied totals. We do have one team implied for five runs, though, and that’s the Braves.
That total is more than half a run clear of the rest of the slate, making them a pretty obvious option. Especially considering their reasonable price tags. With leadoff man Alex Verdugo at just $3,300, the total price of the stack is just over $4,500 per player.
Since we probably aren’t paying up for two expensive arms, they’re easy to get to today. They’ll be my starting point offensively in most of my lineups.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Riley Greene OF ($4,300) Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres (Randy Vasquez)
I want to find a way to fade Randy Vasquez ($5,500) today, thanks to the extreme difference between his ERA and underlying numbers. The former is at 1.74 through four starts, but he has an xERA of 5.71 and SIERA of 6.83.
PlateIQ paints a pretty clear picture that he struggles mightily with left-handed hitters:
That’s a lot of red, with the .393 being his wOBA against lefties. Unfortunately, the Tigers best left-handed bat, Kerry Carpenter, is injured, but this is a solid bounce-back spot for Riley Greene. Greene is off to a slow start this season after posting an .827 OPS last year, so this could be the perfect buy-low opportunity.
William Contreras C ($4,500) Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants (Robbie Ray)
With Ray likely to be one of the most popular pitchers on the slate, one way to gain some leverage is to roster hitters against him. The Brewers are much worse overall against lefties, but Contreras is a notable exception.
In his career, he has a .774 OPS against righties that jumps to .936 against southpaws. Like Greene, he’s slumping a bit at the moment, but this is a solid breakout opportunity. While he’s hitting just .230, his BABIP is 80 points below his career average, which points to positive regression coming soon.
Fernando Tatis OF ($6,000) San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers (Keider Montero)
The Tigers Keider Montero ($6,500) is another arm I’m looking to fade today, with a career 4.96 ERA and slightly worse underlying numbers. He allowed five runs in as many innings to Milwaukee in his 2025 debut and draws a much tougher matchup tonight.
That starts at the top for the Padres, with Tatis a top-five hitter in baseball by nearly any metric so far this season. It’s always tricky finding the salary to pay up for superstar hitters, but it’s a bit easier today so I’ll make it a point to get Tatis in my lineups.
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Pictured: Austin Riley
Photo Credit: Imagn
