The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Hunter Brown ($11,000) Houston Astros (-192) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Friday’s 12-game slate is a bit light on stud pitchers. Only two pitchers are priced above $9,000 on DraftKings: Brown and Max Meyer. While Meyer has delivered plenty of strikeouts this season, he has an ERA near 4.00 and an xERA closer to 5.00. That leaves Brown as the top stud by default.
That’s not to say that Brown hasn’t been good. Brown has been absolutely fantastic for the Astros this season, pitching to a 1.67 ERA, 1.83 FIP, and 10.26 K/9. Some of his Statcast metrics aren’t quite as impressive, but he has been one of the best arms in baseball to start the year.
He also draws a favorable matchup Friday vs. the Reds. Cincinnati ranks just 21st in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, and they have the eighth-highest strikeout rate in that split.
Unsurprisingly, Brown leads the slate in a number of key pitching categories, including opponent implied team total (3.2), moneyline odds (-192), and K Prediction (7.07). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.25 (per the Trends tool).
Brown also leads the slate in both median and ceiling projection, so he’s certainly a fine selection if you can afford his $11,000 price tag. However, he doesn’t stand out as a particularly good value at that figure. He ranks outside the top 10 in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s projected for nearly 30% ownership. That makes him an interesting fade candidate for tournaments.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Gavin Williams (6,800) Cleveland Guardians (+105) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Williams is popping as one of the best values at the position in our MLB Models. That’s due partly to his cheap salary. He’s priced at just $6,800, resulting in a 95% Bargain Rating. That’s tied for the best mark among Friday’s pitchers, and the gap between the leaders and the rest of the field is wide: no other starter is at better than 48%.
The downside with Williams is that he might not be a very good pitcher. His numbers for the year are really uninspiring. He has just a 5.08 ERA through his first seven outings, and his 5.81 xERA is even worse. He’s giving up plenty of hard contact and has struggled with walks, which is a tough combination to overcome.
However, Williams does at least make up for it with his strikeout ability. He throws harder than most starters—his average fastball velocity puts him in the 88th percentile—and he’s had at least eight punchouts in two of his past three starts. He’s also allowed two earned runs or fewer in both of those outings, so his performances are trending in the right direction.
The strikeouts are the big selling point here. His K Prediction currently sits at 5.44, which is the fifth-highest mark on the slate. Each of the other pitchers with a K Prediction of at least 5.0 is priced at $8,300 or higher, so Williams is available at a significant discount.
Ultimately, Williams is far from a slam dunk in a tough matchup vs. the Phillies, but he clearly has upside at his current salary. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in two of his past three outings, and he was significantly more expensive for both of those starts. They also came against the Blue Jays and Yankees, and if Williams can succeed against those lineups, there’s no reason he can’t do it again vs. the Phillies.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Kevin Gausman ($9,000) Toronto Blue Jays (+120) at Seattle Mariners
Seattle’s offense has been hot recently, but I’m always going to have some interest in pitchers heading into their stadium. It’s the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball, so opposing starters get a nice bump whenever they take on the Mariners on the road. Gausman hasn’t been nearly as dominant as he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of putting up big performances from time to time. He did exactly that in his last outing, limiting the Guardians to one hit over six scoreless innings while racking up nine punchouts.
Luis Castillo ($8,300) Seattle Mariners (-142) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Castillo is on the other side of that matchup. He doesn’t possess the same strikeout upside as Gausman, but he’s a bit cheaper and will take the field as a moderate favorite. The Blue Jays are currently implied for just 3.3 runs, which is the second-lowest mark on the slate. Castillo has also unsurprisingly loved pitching in Seattle this season, posting a sparkling 1.57 ERA with 20 strikeouts across 23 innings.
Clay Holmes ($8,200) New York Mets (-155) vs. Chicago Cubs
Holmes doesn’t wow you in any one particular area on this slate, but he has solid marks across the board: 5.31 K Prediction, 3.5 opponent implied total, and -155 moneyline odds. Holmes has struggled to put it all together for full starts this season, but he’s also shown flashes of brilliance. He’s had a game with double-figure strikeouts, and he owns sub-3.00 marks in both ERA and xERA. The matchup vs. the Cubs is far from ideal, but Holmes has been better than his current salary indicates.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The Padres’ offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders to start the year. They’re merely 21st in the league in runs per game, so they’ve been winning more with pitching than with their bats.
That said, nothing cures an ailing offense like a trip to Coors Field. They’ll start a series with the Rockies on Friday, and they’re also catching Colorado at the perfect time. They played a double-header on Thursday—surrendering 21 runs in the process—so their bullpen will be at far less than full strength.
Before they can get into the bullpen, they draw a phenomenal matchup vs. Antonio Senzatela. He’s been absolutely demolished so far this season, pitching to a 5.50 ERA and 7.01 xERA. He’s also allowed 2.10 homers per nine innings, so the Padres clearly have massive upside in this spot. They lead all teams with a 6.6 implied run total, and the Yankees (5.8) are the only other team within 1.5 runs.
The downside of this stack is the price tag. The cheapest hitter will set you back $4,800, and the two most expensive players are $6,000+. That makes it basically impossible to pair this team with a stud pitcher. However, with the stud pitching targets looking a bit weaker than usual, there’s definitely merit to going all-in on a Padres’ stack on Friday.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Trent Grisham OF ($4,500) New York Yankees at Athletics (Osvaldo Bido)
It’s hard to focus on anyone on the Yankees besides Aaron Judge with how he’s crushed the ball this season. He’s put together one of the most impressive starts in MLB history, so his teammates have flown a bit under the radar.
That said, Grisham deserves some love in his own right. He has been a sub-replacement level batter for most of his career, but he’s absolutely torn the cover off the ball in 2025. He’s posted a .292 batting average with 10 homers, and he’s solidified his spot as the Yankees’ leadoff hitter against right-handed pitchers. His numbers in that split this season have been out of this world (via Plate IQ):
Add in a solid matchup vs. Bido and a 5.8-run implied team total, and Grisham stands out as underpriced at $4,500.
Taylor Ward OF ($3,300) Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles (Tomoyuki Sugano)
Ward leads all batters in projected Plus/Minus using our blended projections. The Angels’ offense hasn’t been particularly imposing this season, especially since Mike Trout went down with an injury. However, Ward has provided some pop. He has eight homers for the year, and his barrel rate puts him in the 87th percentile. He doesn’t make contact at an elite rate, but when he does, he has the potential to hit the ball a long way.
Ward draws an appealing matchup Friday vs. Sugano. His 3.00 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but his 5.45 xERA suggests massive looming regression. He’s also been one of the worst strikeout pitchers in baseball, so Ward should be able to put the bat on the ball a bit more often than usual.
Willy Adames ($3,900) San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins (Chris Paddack)
Adames was the Giants’ big free agent acquisition this offseason. So far, it hasn’t exactly paid dividends. He’s hitting just .230 with four homers, while his OPS is down more than 100 points compared to last season.
Still, Adames has a long track record of being a successful hitter. He’s also been at his best historically in righty-righty matchups, and he’ll take on an exploitable right-hander on Friday. Paddack has pitched to a 5.57 ERA, and his 5.01 xERA isn’t much better. All of his Statcast metrics also stand out as below average, so it’s hard to imagine him improving much moving forward.
Paddack’s biggest struggles this season have come against right-handed hitters, so it’s a solid matchup all around for Adames. Add in the fact that this game will be played in Minnesota—which has been the fifth-best park for right-handed hitters over the past three seasons—and Adames is an excellent buy-low candidate on this slate.
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Pictured: Hunter Brown
Photo Credit: Getty Images
