The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryan Woo ($9,500) Seattle Mariners (-143) vs. Minnesota Twins
There are a bunch of strong pitching options to choose from on Friday, and Woo stands out near the top of the pack. He’s off to a fantastic start for the Mariners this season, pitching to a 2.69 ERA with strong underlying metrics. He’s not an elite strikeout arm, but he’s still tallied 60 punchouts in his 63.2 innings pitched.
Woo also benefits from an above-average set of circumstances on Friday. He’s taking on the Twins, who are an excellent matchup. They rank merely 21st in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, and they drop to 24th when facing a righty on the road.
Minnesota’s projected lineup has also posted a 23.2% strikeout rate over the past 12 months, giving Woo a respectable 6.01 K Prediction. When combined with his Vegas data, pitchers with comparable marks have historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.47 (per the Trends tool).
Finally, Woo will benefit from this game being played in Seattle. T-Mobile Park has been the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball over the past three years, per Statcast Park Factors. Woo has unsurprisingly thrived when pitching in Seattle this season, posting a 0.93 ERA, 2.35 FIP, and 8.38 K/9 across 19.1 innings.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Luis L. Ortiz ($6,000) Cleveland Guardians (-146) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Ortiz was acquired by the Guardians from the Pirates this offseason, and he’s ultimately had an up-and-down season. However, he has generated strikeouts at a well-above-average clip. He ranks in the 70th percentile for strikeout rate and 85th percentile for whiff rate, and he’s racked up at least seven punchouts in two of his past three starts.
The strikeout pitch should serve Ortiz well on Friday. He’s taking on the Angels, who have the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitchers. Their projected lineup boasts a 29.6% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the highest splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Ortiz ultimately owns a K Prediction of 5.98, which is an elite figure for his price tag. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.10. Add in comparable moneyline odds, and that figure jumps up to +3.88.
Ortiz checks in with the top Plus/Minus projection in both the Fantasy Labs and THE BAT X projection systems, making him an excellent salary-saver at SP2.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
David Peterson ($9,000) New York Mets (-340) vs. Colorado Rockies
Peterson owns the top Vegas data of the day, leading all pitchers in moneyline odds (-340) and opponent implied team total (2.7 runs). He gets the benefit of facing the Rockies at home, which is always a good thing. They’re dead last in wRC+ vs. southpaws this season, and they’re also tied for the highest strikeout rate in that split. Peterson is not someone you’d typically want to pay $9,000 for, but this matchup could be the exception.
Nick Pivetta ($9,800) San Diego Padres (-199) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pivetta boasts arguably the highest ceiling on the slate. He leads all pitchers in K Prediction in our MLB Models, and his 28.3% strikeout rate for the year puts him in the 83rd percentile. Pivetta has also excelled at keeping runs off the scoreboard this season, boasting a 2.73 ERA. Pittsburgh is 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, so it’s a spot where Pivetta could shove.
Zebby Matthews ($7,200) Minnesota Twins (+120) at Seattle Mariners
Matthews is an interesting contrarian option on Friday. He’s one of the Twins’ top prospects, but he was rocked in his first start of the season. However, he bounced back with a solid showing in his second outing, tallying nine strikeouts in just 4.0 innings. The Mariners’ offense has cooled off significantly in recent weeks, and Matthews gets the same bump as Woo due to the location. He shouldn’t carry much ownership in this spot, but he has some upside.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the New York Yankees:
We’ll have a World Series rematch on Friday as the Yankees travel to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers. Both teams are currently favored to make it back to the World Series this year, and they’re off to tremendous starts.
While the Dodgers will have to navigate a brutal matchup vs. Max Fried, the Yankees have a much more appealing matchup vs. Tony Gonsolin. He’s struggled since making his debut this season, pitching to a 4.68 ERA, 4.74 xERA, and 1.44 HR/9. Gonsolin is doing a decent job of generating swings and misses, but every other part of his profile is below average.
The Yankees don’t typically need an invitation to do damage offensively. They’re third in the league in runs per game and second in wRC+ vs. right-handers.
Their production starts with Aaron Judge, who is in the midst of a historic season. He’s fourth in the league with 18 homers, and he’s also batting just a shade under .400. Judge is also getting plenty of help from Trent Grisham, who is off to an outstanding start against right-handed pitchers this season (via Plate IQ):
The big issue with the Yankees is that they’re not easy to stack. Not only are they expensive, but four of their top five hitters only have outfield eligibility. That means you’ll need to leave one out of any potential stack. The top stack removes Jasson Dominguez in favor of Anthony Volpe, but changing out Cody Bellinger instead is another possibility. Bellinger is projected for more points, but Dominguez is -$1,000 cheaper and has a better projected Plus/Minus.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Mark Vientos 3B ($3,200) New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
The Mets’ offense hasn’t been quite as good as expected this season. While Juan Soto’s struggles have gotten most of the attention – that tends to happen when you sign a $750M contract – Vientos has also disappointed after breaking out last season. His numbers are down virtually across the board, and he’s currently sitting on just six homers.
However, Vientos was fantastic against southpaws last season, so perhaps a matchup with Freeland will get him on track. He’s pitched to an ERA near six this season, and most of his struggles have unsurprisingly come against righties. They’ve posted a .360 batting average and .505 slugging percentage against him, and Vientos leads all hitters in our blended projections in projected Plus/Minus.
LaMonte Wade Jr. ($2,300) San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins (Cal Quantrill)
Wade is projected to bat seventh for the Giants on Friday, which is far from ideal. He’s also off to a rough start at the dish this season, boasting a wRC+ of merely 60.
That said, Wade has a solid track record of success against right-handed pitchers, and he’ll face one of the worst right-handed starters in baseball on Friday. Quantrill has pitched to a 6.09 ERA so far this season, and his advanced metrics are equally ugly. The Giants’ 4.9 implied run total is tied for the fourth-highest mark on the slate, so they’re an interesting stack candidate as well.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B ($4,800) Toronto Blue Jays vs. ATH (Jeffrey Springs)
The Blue Jays are another team implied for 4.9 runs on Friday. They’ll square off with Springs, which puts Guerrero on the positive side of his splits. He has turned things around after a quiet start to the year, posting an .874 OPS with five homers in May. He ultimately has the seventh-highest ceiling projection in our blended projection set, and he’s significantly cheaper than most of the other high-ceiling options.
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Pictured: Bryan Woo
Photo Credit: Getty Images
